Personally I'm expecting more questions than answers in Jan update. Don't see any way KRG are going to start paying out $40m per month to IOC's and therefore it's just a case of keeping shtum till further developments.
I'd be pleasantly surprised if the $14 or $16 per barrel was highlighted although it seems a bit weird if we're in a situation of possibly being over paid.
Yes, even clarity on the $16/$14 or $13.50 (my guess) interim payment would have been sufficient, instead of dressing it up in the $30pb equivalent equation.
Well I'm thinking that production does not necessarily equal oil exported and paid for due to storage tanks being filled at Ceyhan. Does that make sense?
Could produce 43K or whatever but with only 40k actually being loaded onto tankers with payment due.
I'm looking more at 40k for Oct as presume there's a subtle difference between production and actual exported oil when you consider amount of storage at Ceyhan?
Thinking it's maybe a $2.5pb reduction for pipeline usage?
$16-$2.5 = $13.5 = $10.8pb
Equates to $30 x 36% exactly
Too many unknowns as usual. Seems obvious not wanting to give too much information during this interim period and whilst receivables negotiations are ongoing.