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Best case scenario IOC's paid $16 (or $14) per barrel for Oct production in its entirety (2 liftings) by 15th or 17th Dec

Medium case scenario, $16 or $14pb paid to IOC's for 1st lifting only by 15th/17th Dec

Worst case scenario.......not even going to contemplate that.

Not sure if DNO/GENL production of around 80kbopd is being included in the quoted export figure of 188k?

They're not participating in the export deal but think their crude is actually going via pipeline to Ceyhan but on a local sales basis.....if that makes sense?

"starsalign, I'm using $14 i.e. a hold-back of $2 for transportation"

Yes true enough although maybe an outside chance that has been negotiated as not been mentioned recently (wishful thinking maybe)

Also no mention of Wood Mackenzie report apart from they haven't started was last I read,

Wonder if we'll get that 2nd loading RNS as scheduled before end of this month.

5,834,864 x $16pb (interim payment) = $93.3m payment to IOC's for October production, think that's correct?

Cheque in the post or about to be loaded onto an oil tanker.

that article reads slightly worryingly to me but consolation is it's probably bull****

Not sure what that means Rog? You're calling GKP a buy at today's price but not buying yourself due to personal circumstances?

Presume they need at least 2 tankers to cover payments and perhaps logistics at Ceyhan dictate timings for loads allocated to IOC's.

"I have been expecting payment for October in early December."

Maybe end of December going on 30 days from lifting and Shamaran statement?

Shamaran statement -

A second lifting of IOC-allocated barrels related to production and pipeline exports during September and October 2025 is scheduled at the end of this month, with further liftings and payments expected to follow.

Hopefully GKP will reinstate those "Shaikan payment update" RNS's around mid December and EVERY month thereafter.

MalcolmJ - Sometime in Dec is all we have so far.

Perhaps the 1st invoice will be for 33 or 34 days taking into account exports restarted on 27th Sept, although probably at a reduced rate initially.

Any predictions for the key figures production and price?

And yes I know it's a fixed $16 or $14 for this month to be paid sometime in December but assume GKP still need to invoice appropriately?

42kbopd and $38 at a guess. ($63 less $25)

Possibly changed due to exports restarting?

"I expect the arrears to come under separate arrangement."

Thought you reckoned re-invoicing not so long ago?

Also - are you suggesting the new water handling facility will possibly increase production to 50k??

Putup - is that a slight step away from the CRP being normalised scenario assuming there is no additional payment scheme for arrears?

If POO falls much further we might be very grateful for the $16/$14pb interim payment deal?

May be better than full PSC entitlement in which case they'll probably just pay the invoiced amount.

"What's their burn on cash till they get paid in December.

Also how much will SOMO owe them. Plus the $150m."

Outlandish guess because there's still quite a few unknowns but what about cash burn for 2 and a bit months equals 1st escrow payment for October sales?

It's all slightly vague but presume payments for in kind Shaikan crude sold and payment to escrow account outwith sole ICG control. That's my understanding ATM.