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Think I mentioned $2.50 but you never listen to a thing I say :-)

October production from the presentation 42.3k

Payment for Sept (3 or 4 days) and October production from the RNS $14m to GKP, I need that calculator again :-)

▪ IOC compensation of $16/bbl for gross production &

transportation during interim period

Does that mean GKP/MOL pay for transportation costs out of the $16pb?

Can't really equate the often mentioned $30pb (x36%) to $16pb (x80%)

*Sorry Nov 2024 PF1 shutdown*

Yes but GKP have held production fairly steady over the last couple of years with minimal expenditure when you consider PF1 shutdown in 2023 and the recent drone attack issue. Maybe lower production expected due to non drilling catching up later this year?

"I'm not surprised. People here forgot about the PF2 work-over deferred from 2025 to align with the installation of water handling equipment which doesn't benefit until 2027 and beyond"

Don't think most sensible investors here are forgetting about the PF2 work over later in the year but that only accounts for 1kbopd annualised. Perhaps the installation of the water handling equipment will have a material impact on production also?

37 - 41k seems low guidance to me considering we're expected to be back up to 44k this month but no reason not to accept it I suppose.

Yes that's more encouraging, diagram showing $15 -$20pb discount to Brent as opposed to the previous $25pb discount on resumption of full entitlement. Believe it when we see it I suppose?

"2026 gross average production guidance of 37,000 to 41,000 bopd"

That's going to hurt, don't think anyone was expecting guidance that low?

Wonder if there's any way the outstanding $1b receivables could be tied into reduction in fees for KRG pipeline usage?

Happy for everyone to make up their own mind, no problem at all.

Remember that the $30pb mentioned has to multiplied by 36% for GKP entitlement INCLUDING arrears.

Just as the $27/$28pb was multiplied by 36% via local sales.

Putup will be along later if you want a more complicated explanation :-)

Assuming IOC's have only been paid for 12m barrels so far. 6m per month approx. Oct and Nov.

Thanks Blumagnet, so that's payment of $214m to IOC's for 12m barrels according to recent information, hang on till I get my calculator :-) seems closer to $16 than $14 per barrel but wait and see.

!UNLESS there are other hidden factors forming part of the agreements but not released to the market that skew the numbers."

Any chance you could elaborate on this?

"SOMO did, however, (as we all did at the time) download the company PSCs that were put up on the MNR website."

Before my time I think, anything of interest on those company PSC's for those of us who don't have them downloaded?

"Separately again is the issue of what prices are being yielded from the new selling mechanism and whether SOMO decides to price each IOC contributed grade separately."

That was my point - SNM/HKN - $8 discount to Brent and GKP/MOL - $25 discount to Brent, both approx.

Not holding my breath but perhaps gives a glimmer of hope on Shaikan discount being tightened?

Suppose there's always the possibility Wood Mackenzie will highlight the large discrepancy in quality and transport discounts that have been applied historically and presumably will show up in recent invoices? May work in our favour but wait and see as usual.

"Such a low discount would be amazing and never achieved before"

Don't suppose there's any need to adjust the spreadsheet at the moment, big difference though, interesting if nothing else.

Just had a quick read of the latest Shamaran presentation and slide 5 shows full PSC entitlement at $57pb with Brent @$65

Seems a very low discount even allowing for better oil quality?

"As a result, Shamaran expects cash flow to double from about $100 million per year to $200 million"

Nobody ask him what oil price that's based on?