Member Info for StarBright

The last TR1 showed Solo at 221m shares.

3% is 167m, so 54m to be sold before the next TR1 is required.

I think they'll have got a few done today...

Yes re 3%. That'll be the last though, they can sell quietly with no further disclosure from that point.

Whilst the constant and over-simplistic chat here about "mates rates" is tiresome, it is true that some do better inside the spread than others at times...

Rodders - who did they borrow those 18m shares from..?

If they didn't borrow them were these shorts:

(a) simple naked shorts
(b) marketmakers utilising their reporting exemption?

Drivel. The quoted price is available to you, and to everyone interested.

Yep - PI's have had ages to build their positions to size.

The question is whether this news is strong enough to attract new investors and their capital. It might be, but that won't happen overnight.

Doesn't look like there has been much money waiting on the touchline for the RNS result.

Does look like Solo - and possibly other minnows - selling into what they guessed would be a decent spike.

RNS looks good on first reading. Time to sit and watch calmly.

When did you get back in Boyzee..?

Better luck this time ;>

It would also make sense if the two football clubs in Manchester combined to form one single regional force...

These are two separate companies, each with their own shareholder base and leadership teams. Both - as someone posted here the other day - are making genuine efforts to deliver for shareholders: capital is being raised and poured into wells and other exploration/development activities. Good on them both for this is a segment where “lifestyle” companies abound. Competition is good - it creates focus and intensity. I am pleased to hold both and see them vying for commercial success. It doesn’t strike me that it would be easy for Mr Vonk and Mr Sanderson to decide which one of them should be in charge...

So I don’t think that any form of combination is likely at this point. There is less than no chance that behind-the-scenes machinations of this sort are in any way holding back the sp’s of either company!

WelshTopTrader - the idea that the price of a share is being "held back" isn't really supportable other than in the very short term. UKOG has traded in a range of 2.1p +/- 0.4p for several months now. There's no reason to believe that this is anything other than the range in which the requirements of both buyers and sellers are being satisfied.

The share price will re-rate if and when there is materially positive new news. This may happen on the back of a company announcement RNS, but could also happen over a period of time through a steady accumulation of good news signs like the tankers leaving today...

Rampers here appear to be work-shy amateurs in comparison to this guy. Sorry - "these guys"...

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=EQT

Hilarious, and beyond parody!

I think we are witnessing some kind of alternative art project here. Maybe a Banksy...?

Penguins - I have revisited the figures correcting the number of days error in toughiv's tanker schedule, and also incorporating your suggestion on smoothing depletion in the early years. These changes reduce NPV10 for the project outlined in the scoping document to £150m. Note that this is the gross project NPV ie not adjusted for ownership. A few other observations from the data in the document:

1. The initial production rate of 3,424bopd falls by 50% over 3 years, and 80% over 10 years
2. Using 365 days(!), average tanker movements over the 20 years comes down to 3.5
3. Total production over the 20 years is a little over 5.6mmbbls

This result set is closer to yours. As always, I'd be interested in your observations, thoughts and questions.

Oktane - I am inclined to agree with JayKay1 that any sentiment spikes are likely to be muted compared to the BB instance last year. Having said that, this is AIM and over-excitement could present a decent early exit opportunity for disciplined value investors. You (also Free-Money & Vulkan998) are absolutely right to observe that the real opportunity for UKOG is to develop multiple iterations of the HH project across the licence area(s).

Brocal - you are right on this. Unless any such declaration is accompanied by upwards revisions on flows, reserves etc then it won’t have a material impact on the sp.

Vernony - you evidently haven’t read the link I posted about the relationship between mcap, so and shares in issue...

If someone sells £1m of shares in a company with an mcap of £100m, that’s 1% traded weight - whatever the share price is. It doesn’t matter if the sp is 2p or 50p...!

You’re making a fool of yourself repeatedly on this topic, and it undermines any other contribution you may have to make. Quite a few posters here have tried to gently help you out. They can explain it, but they can’t understand it for you! Please go and think about it....

I can't see banks lending here on reserves. In particular, they won't lend on reserves to fund development/pre-production expenditure like new wells. Once in production the valuation of the company, and its chances of securing debt finance, will be driven by its ability to generate free cashflow.

Financing is going to be a tricky balancing act; a real test of the CEO and his team in parallel with the challenges of actually getting the oil out of the ground.

No worries JK. Do keep posting btw. Even though you & I have opposing opinions on UKOG as an investment, I value your input and it’s important to keep some sanity here amid the mindless drivel....

JayKay1 - I am always open to discussion, and evidently happy to wear a few for the cause of reason. But I'm not sure I understand your last para...?

I guess it is possible that HH alone might deliver 10k bopd, but the company itself only envisages an average of 3k bopd in the scoping document.

I have always looked to build investment cases on "the balance of probabilities" rather than "possibilities". If we enter the realm of "possibilities" we quickly start to sound like the people trying to justify a $4000 price target for Tesla on the basis that it will revolutionise "transport as a service" rendering individual car ownership a thing of the past etc!

These are castles in the sand not investment cases.

Blimey Rodders - that actually looks like discussion...

It doesn't look like we disagree much, if at all. The picture you paint has a realistic timescale. An oil production company with 10k bopd and sustainable EBITDA of £194m might be worth around £1.5bn based on industry comparatives, that's an sp of around 25p.

But it is a long journey to 10k bopd, and the path to that has not yet been set out. Successful investment is about assessing the balance of probabilities, not just the possibilities. 3k bopd as envisaged by the tanker schedule in the scoping document is perhaps a more realistic target, and might give an sp approaching 8p. On an EV basis, holding UKOG is justified if you believe the company's chances of achieving this are greater than 25%. I do, hence I am a holder.

Crocqman - I agree. Stephen Sanderson and the UKOG team have it all to do in terms of demonstrating not only that the oil is there in commercial form, but also that they are capable of managing all aspects of the company - including shareholders and financing - all the way through to production. They haven't yet demonstrated either with great clarity.

Frankly everyone here should be honest. UKOG is something of a punt. Worth holding as part of the high-risk component of your portfolio, but don't be over-invested in the expectation of life-changing gains because the odds are not what our resident dreamers and rampers would like you to believe...