Member Info for StarBright

To accept your analysis it is necessary to believe that the coiled spring of pent-up demand will be released only after the sellers have left the market and the price is rising...

If I were a prospective buyer, why would I wait for the sellers to finish when they are clearly controlling their volume so as not to crater the price? Wouldn't it be better for me to buy now, before the price starts rising...?

Yes - national press coverage could be a component of broadening the appeal and thus the investor base. The story isn't strong enough yet. "KL3 flowed at 300bopd more than in previous test." isn't a headline to match the initial discovery of the "Gatwick Gusher"...

Brocal - I think that is a reasonable analogy for what we are seeing. UKOG is a popular stock among the active PI community, as we see from the volume of posts and the level of engagement here. I'm not aware of other AIM stocks that have a crew of people sitting behind bushes tweeting about tankers and pumps (or their equivalent). The PI's who hold the shares clearly have a wide range of motivations though. Something about this company appeals to an audience for whom Brexit, energy independence etc are push-button topics. We see their posts here every day. Also the experience of the spike last year attracts and retains the dreamers looking for alchemy - quick/easy money for nothing. We see their anger and frustration on this board today. And we have some swing traders and their associated rampers and de-rampers. This board lies at the intersection of these groups and there is a lot of noise as a result. It can all be safely ignored!

But essentially the narrative is well known. There can hardly be an active PI out there that hasn't at least taken a look at UKOG during the last year or two. Despite the many over-excited posts here, the truth is that the price has been relatively stable 2.1p +/- 0.4p for months following the exit of YA and the commencement of the EWT at HH. PI's of all types have had time to build positions to whatever size they are comfortable with.

So when we get good news like yesterday, the existing investor base doesn't have money sat waiting to be deployed. They already have their positions, so there's no sudden release of pent-up demand from existing holders to drive the price higher.

The news yesterday was a clear positive - especially when viewed as a further building block alongside other recent announcements. But it is not transformational. Only when we see news strong enough to attract new investors and their capital will we see the re-rating that holders are seeking. This means news that is strong enough to reverse the opinions of PI's who have decided not to commit previously, or - better still - the emergence of a credible investment proposition for institutional investors. We are not there yet. Someone posted earlier today a list of forthcoming milestones. This was a good contribution as we need to see the company maintaining its steady progress in ticking them off.

The milestones we've passed during the last few months mean that the investment case for UKOG at or around 2p is stronger than it has ever been previously. This is a far better investment today than it was at 2p at any previous point. If - as seems ever more likely - Weald oil can be recovered commercially, the shareholders of the firms involved will be rewarded for the risks they have taken.

Rational investors should just hold. Not out of blind faith as frequently espoused here, or because of FOMO. Hold because UKOG owns some interesting opportunities and has an enterprising management team that is making clear progress in realising them

A single-minded seller going out on their own perhaps...?

No lack of creativity here..!

Markets not pretty - a bit of an October mudslide in progress. Asian equities extending the sharp sell-off in the US late session yesterday, and Europe is following. FTSE futures down 1.8% as I type.

Those of us holding UKOG as part of a broader portfolio will be hoping it brings some diversification benefit today..!

hollie170295 - as a retail investor your shares won't be being lent. You don't need to have a sell order in place to take them "off the market". That's just internet rubbish.

jptop7 - your post is nonsense. Just a garbled collection of tired bulletin-board cliches for the clueless, riddled with contradictions and misunderstandings. You say Solo are selling, so isn't there an obvious source of shares for those MM's (or whoever) with naked shorts you claim are "sh87ting themselves"...? Is a naked short harder to cover than a non-naked one for some reason...? What on earth is the danger you are trying to alert us to? Why post on these topics when you clearly have neither knowledge or experience? Competition for prize billy is pretty hot here at times, but I think you have it covered...

12000bopd would be 56 tankers / day. Planning may be the practical constraint...

And I can't believe you mentioned buy backs. Don't be ridiculous!

*and gals, Agenders, Androgynes, Bigenders, Cisgenders, F2Ms, Gender non-conformers, M2Fs, Neutrois, Non-binaries, Pangenders, Transgenders and anyone else I may have missed...

jungerns - interesting post. I find it hard to reach a conclusion on the incidence of a major corporate event. In the long run I'd agree that some sort of trade sale is favourite. But your post suggests you think that could happen within months - "..when this EWT is concluded..". What leads you to that conclusion?

Just a note of caution guys - big risk-off day in US Equities. SPX -2%ish and Vix>20 as I type.

Short of a last-hour reversal (not unknown...) we are likely to see a tough day for all risk assets tomorrow. Doesn't mean UKOG won't rise, just that any progress will be tempered by wider market conditions.

Solo received their placing shares at 1.92p, so that's their in-price.

Their RNS 30th Aug said: "Based on the £4.5 million consideration Solo has made an investment return of 50% on the additional 5% it acquired in February 2018, and 45% on its total investment in HHDL since February 2014."

If they've made 45% with a sale price of £4.5m, their total investment was £4.5m / 1.45 or £3.1m

That's 161m UKOG shares assuming they can match their in-price of 1.92p

That leaves 73m shares as what you call "free profit"

But they will sell them all.

In my experience you shouldn’t pay too much weight to CEO’s views on the valuation of their own companies..!

£25m-£40m for 100bopd is well outside industry comparatives.

£11m at the median, with a range from £6m to £20m would be more realistic.

4% threshold was reached on 2nd Oct. 630m traded since (inc 239m today). They need to do one more RNS at 167m, which I guess we could see tomorrow.

I don't think that's enough volume for them to have dumped the whole 234m yet.

* sorry, first TR1 was at 4% not 3%

No. They took 234m in the placing, and they've not yet shifted all of those! The TR1 earlier this week was at 221m as they crossed below 3%. At that point they had 54m to go to get down to 3% where the next TR1 will be due.

They'll then have 167m left which they can keep/sell as they wish without further TR1 disclosures required.

Price action looks fine to me. Consistent with news flow and market dynamics (known seller). Holders should just hold...

Solo filed a TR1 earlier this week when they went under the 4% level.

At that point they had about 54m more to shift before a final TR1 at 3%, after which they are in the long grass from which no further disclosures will be required.

Perhaps a single-minded seller with 50ish million to move before they reach cover...?

To accept your analysis it is necessary to believe that the coiled spring of pent-up demand will be released only after the sellers have left the market and the price is rising...

If I were a prospective buyer, why would I wait for the sellers to finish when they are clearly controlling their volume so as not to crater the price? Wouldn't it be better for me to buy now, before the price starts rising...?