Member Info for StarBright

The only trade filled at 75.98 is for 23 shares Dodge.

Did you really pay £5.95 in commission for £17.45 of shares..? I would like to believe that no-one is that stupid.

No-one has bought at 75.4p today Dodge.

Or not here..? Tweet has been removed - what did it say?

FFS stop whining...!

Good post turfmoor - your analysis is accurate and truthful.

No-one has such a view. Technically, no orders exist until the order book opens for entry at 0750. At that point, any DMA orders will be visible to those with L2 access. Orders that aren’t being executed via DMA (the overwhelming majority for PI’s, specifically those trying to get “at market” orders quoted) won’t be visible other than to individual RSP’s polled after the open at 0800. There is no aggregating mechanism for these, no-one sees the whole market in the way you suggest.

For those expecting/creating a panic on Monday morning, I hope no-one is foolish enough to enter an “at market” trade on open. MM’s will likely be waiting - you have been warned - and you may get filled at a price you don’t like. If you feel like placing yourself alongside the MM’s rather than in opposition to them, a speculative limit buy order at a low price might get filled early in the session...

Posters here saying that they’ve already input their sell orders will mainly be fantasists looking for peer approval on this board. You’ll see this on Monday morning when the whole idiots parade of dummy trades and “NT to buy/sell” kicks off.

I agree. Although it may not possible to explain a complex contract to those who use phrases like “...doing are heads in”. Especially if Twitter is the preferred medium.

From experience. Posters need to be very clear when using terms like “net” and “gross” margin. There is a lot of scope for misunderstanding around definitions.

Convention would be that the 18% is the retained margin on this contract. That is Revenue minus all directly associated costs ( including staff costs of employees involved) etc.

The contract though has been very much written by lawyers, perhaps without a lot of accounting input. It uses some accounting terms (eg “”Funds”) in an unconventional way, and with somewhat sketchy definitions. It is hard to be 100% confident on interpretation as a result.

“The margin in relation to orders will be 18% before deduction of the Funds”.

Funds is defined in 1.1 as the pre-production payment.

It’s entirely normal for margins on government contracts like this to be disclosed.

I don’t think that’s right megatro. The “Pre-production payment” is simply an advance on the payments under the contract. It’s nothing to do with the negotiated margin.

A retained margin of 18% on a high-volume “foundation contract” from government feels like a reasonable outcome to me. Higher margins will be achievable on commercial sales through other channels. We have one big piece of the puzzle; the other key pieces missing are the % of capacity this contract will occupy (thoughts on this welcome) and the % margins achievable on the remaining (non-government) component. Fill in those blanks and we’ll have a basic financial model for ODX.

Wolf76. Go away - adults are talking here.

Page 64 of the contract.

My interpretation of the contract is that ODX will receive £374m over two years, on which they will make an agreed margin of 18%. This margin represents the gross profit derived from manufacturing the contracted volume of LFT’s. The contract therefore supports £374m x 18% = £67m of MCap (no real need to discount cash flows over such a short period). We can assume intent to utilise the remaining capacity at higher (>18%) margins, whether through domestic or international sales.

This is the missing piece in the jigsaw we’ve been waiting for. It makes it possible to build a sensible financial model for ODX, with assumptions underpinned by a contract with substance. Good news!

JohnHenry - we are (I think) saying the same thing. Only your use of “revenue” isn’t right. The product of turnover (£the £374m contract value) and margin is usually referred to as ‘Gross Profit”. In an accounting sense, the £374m will be classified as “Revenue”.

I’m not sure how we should apply the 18% margin given the wording copied in the other thread. Convention is to apply the margin% to turnover, not cost of inputs, so £374m * 18% = £67.3m. Over two years that’s £33.6m pa.

Thoughts?

Russky - in what sense have they "let someone in"? If this morning you had entered a buy order for140k shares with a limit of 83.1p, do you think it would have been filled? If not, why not?

You ask "who is going to sell 116k worth at the death with the bidstats update?" Surely you understand - not least because it has been explained here so many times - that the timestamp is the moment the trade was filled, not the moment it was instructed?

This is basic basic stuff. If you don't understand it, then maybe post about something where you have at least rudimentary knowledge.

Just to save everyone some time....

- Just a treeshake
- Large buy-order being filled
- All the sells are buys / All the buys are sells
- To let friends in at “mates rates”
- Shorters opening / closing / holding
- Naked shorts opening / closing / holding
- Waiting for US market to open at 14:30
- Peel / FinnCap / JBER / … “sittin’ on the bid”
- Walked down
- Held down
- Suppressed by MM’s
- Large II doing an iceberg trade
- Large II accumulating ahead of a bid
- Blatant manipulation
- 10%’ers / Traders / Pump&dump crew bailing
- Money moving to AVCT / NCYT / GDR / BRH
- All covid plays are down
- Government contract being awarded
- Government contract not being awarded
- Colin / Walbrooke / BigJock / Twatcher / JHindsight
- Leak / No leak
- RNS / no RNS
- Tweet / no tweet
- Usual morning / lunchtime / afternoon drop
- Pre-FOMO adjustment
- Stop losses being hunted
- MM’s games
- Sells flooding in
- NT to sell
- Can’t buy
- Algos spoofing / selling
- MM’s putting buys through as sells
- All buys being delayed
- Buys put through just below mid to look like sells
- LRGS trades in the background
- Resistance point passed / not passed
- Bouncing off the bollinger band
- Dropped before / after auction
- Spread being widened / narrowed
- They want your shares
- More sellers than buyers

Friday is not the preferred day for companies to release good news RNS.

Yes - there are exceptions, and in some cases companies don’t have the luxury of choice. But custom and practice is for planned good news RNS to be released on Tue/Wed/Thu when capital markets desks are properly resourced.

I’ll be happy if today is an exception for ODX..!

No worries. I agree with the sentiment that UK investors shouldn't be concerned(!) about the possibility of a NASDAQ listing. If it were to become a reality, it is more than likely to be a positive for existing holders.

Posters in this thread debating the merits of cross- vs dual- listings are (as my former US colleagues would have said) "well over their skis" at this point...