Member Info for StanleyPro

JMAX, when I bought TLW in January @50p I also thought 100p is imminent because it looked a good value

I agree, Tony and I think TLW has been hammered badly in the current oil crisis but we need to move forward. I'm also positive on a new drilling activity in 2021. We've had enough bad luck with TLW so next time lucky! However, stock prices are detached from fundamentals in a corona crisis. When the deal is 99.9(9) % done nobody will pay a 50% premium (i.e.30p) after TLW tells us: "the monies have arrived"! That's just common sense. Maybe they already have the money in a bank and will tell us in a report.

I don't think 500m "in a bank" will create any significant movement in the SP. We were told about Uganda sale in spring which created a genuine spike. Last month TLW confirmed the deal is final. How many times can you milk the very same Uganda deal? We need investors buying big like Sammy did back in Jan / Feb and those guys already know the deal can't be off. You won't impress them with "money in a bank" news.

Who said we should hear about 500mil in a bank? Probably in a year report :D

The reality is they can say whatever they want. How did they come up with 35$ ? That's not even the avg. of 2020 needless to say TLW do not trade based on 35$/bbl. Tomorrow Moody's will say that oil will be dirt cheap, 1$/bbl and based on that forecast TLW would not be able to secure a good hedge for the year 2030...

Moody's assumption is based on the Brent price of 35$ until the end of the year which is lower than yesterday's spot price and last time the price was 35$ or lower was at the end of May. At present it is safe to publish negative reports because otherwise they'll end up in a shark tank.

They always take the most conservative negative outlook:
"The Caa2 rating on the $650 million due 2022 and $800 million due 2025 senior unsecured notes is one notch below the Caa1 CFR. "
The above can change in just a week if oil goes up...

I'm in TLW since Jan 2020. A lot of suffering, still remember the SP under 10p with my avg. of 50 lol.

32p was a good support /resistance level so I will not give up any shares lower than that

When is prospectus due? We now need 100% to reach Sep highs...
Hardly any positives, PMO is on the ropes, throw in a towel!

We need to wait for the results in November. If TLW is close to break even then we may see bigger SP movement than with Uganda sale. They should be able to make some money with Brent in the 40s... and hopefully, no more 1bn write offs.

What can they tell us that we don't already know?

There won't be any 14-16p forget about it, this stock is trading with at least 75% off already.

Why are we sliding south? What's going on?

We need to break 23-24p and hang on there, then 30 is almost guaranteed in the next couple of weeks

Those shorts are hedge funds, they probably feel they can squeeze more juice out of TLW after the SP increased 25%.

we're drifting lower again...

Does anyone know how difficult would it be for TLW to open a new hedge, say for 10% of production?
Say, Brent futures will be up to 55 momentarily, surely, it won't be possible to hedge some portion of production for the whole y.2021 at that price due to contract expiration....

@Camkite so I guess it's a 5 from you.

say in 1-2 months (by the end of 2020 is what I consider short term)