Member Info for Stally092

I previously shared #MSMN's well economics for the Vecta Helium drills, based on 20% WI, but with todays acquisition of 90% WI at the Billy Goat permit, I've revised these figures (see post).. it's looking like a pretty shrewd move from Andy Carroll today if the Helium content is there.

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1922307078200209852

TLDR, a ~$200k investment per well (as stated in today's RNS) could generate between $2.6-6.6m gross annually. That means a 6 well field development (similar to DE's Red Rocks) could generate in the region of $15.8-39.4m gross annually, for just a $1.1-1.2m well cost (for all 6)! These can be connected to the local pipelines and straight into the Cheyenne Wells gas plant (approx. 100 miles north).

What's better, the nearby historic Barclay A-1 well (drilled in 1970) intersected the Lyons formation at 900ft and identified a 60ft+ gas column on the logs (see pictures in post), significantly de-risking the drill.. over to MSMN now for the Helium %.

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1922183394487631991

Here's some nearby historic well data to digest:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1922183394487631991

Less than 2km from Billy Goat an old well looking for oil in 1970 intersected the Lyons formation at 900ft. From the logs at this depth (shared in the post), we can see a gas column of at least 60ft. So we know there's gas, over to MSMN for the Helium! Given the success others have had in the area, we know the Helium is there too.. looking food for the start of the campaign! 🔥

Great RNS from MSMN today releasing maiden helium resource estimates for Sagebrush. At 205 mmcf, approximate value is $102.5m based on price of $500/mcf, and that's just for a small closure in Sagebrush South.

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1920558415085961439

"In addition, at the nearby and separate Coyote Wash Project, the structures at its various Leadville prospects appear on 3D seismic to be larger than the structure mapped at the Sagebrush Project. We will now also commence work on a separate internal resource estimate for the Coyote Wash leases using the Sagebrush data. Given their proximity, these two Projects represent a compelling combination given the data, logistics and potential development synergies."

I couldn't wait for MSMN's internal resources estimate, so have crunched the numbers myself! Based on today's resources estimates, the figures are staggering (see below)..

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1920567537189650532

Initial sellers out, price action starting to reverse.

Great results today from ZPHR, this well has demonstrated strong economics and will eagerly anticipate news regarding the wider development of the Paradox Basin. CH has been in talks around this for some time now, so confirmation of a JV (in whatever form that may take) could happen at any point. Exciting times for the company.

I've shared my map of the Las Animas fairway previously, but here's an updated one for reference. We know there's proven helium to the east, but worth pointing out the new entrant to the fairway, NSC Helium, who now have a 5 well OGDP approved to the west (that's 5 planned development wells). Mosman's Treasure Hill licence area is now surrounded by Helium discoveries/production on all sides - if that doesn't give you confidence going into these drills I'm not sure what else will..

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1919431156480532677

With HEX targeting first Helium production this summer and a sustained cashflow of $15-20m/year, this will easily be achieved from the 3 current development wells and future drills expected in 2025. With 6-8 wells planned by 2026 year end, reaching the 48,000mcf/year plant capacity will not be an issue (calculations in the post below):

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1919423097158926455

All things considered, the current sp of 15p (£23m mcap) is a steal with what's to come here. That's not even accounting for Linda's oil discovery, or the hydrogen discovery and future development of Ingomar. Wouldn't want to be out of this share in 2025, so much potential upside which has been massively de-risked with progress and development of Rudyard. Bo and the team are doing a fantastic job.

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1919415528881320084

It's great to have been in on this journey, Colin and the team have done a fantastic job in getting us to this point! I'm watching in anticipation for results of the extended lateral in the week ahead, this truly is a historic and company-making moment for the company!

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1919395557593731119

Remember, the original test on the 130ft lateral produced over 2,100 BOED, so with over 5,500ft now confirmed in 97% of the Cane Creek reservoir, 98 cuts successfully perforated along this in strong showing sections, all of which were treated with acid, it's hard not to expect greater results from this well test which will have the capacity to flow strongly for years to come.

Moreover, in Colin's last interview he said all wells would be tied in and no CAPEX required for gas processing! The only piece left to resolve after this week are the plans for the wider development of the Paradox Basin! Exciting times ahead!

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1919397881615618542

Huge news yesterday with confirmation of Helium in the system at Sagebrush. The new drill this summer will be targeting gas bearing zones off of 2D/3D seismics, so fully expect to see higher flow rates and possible grades (see posts). Tim Rynott, CEO of Four Corners Helium, the regions expert geologist, and consultant to Mosman on Sagebrush/Coyote believes we could see some incredible flow rates well above this historic well data.. so with the Helium in system confirmed, just take a look at the figures (based on Tim Rynott's estimates)! 🤯

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1912761696017383923

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1912579746283553240

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1912561300514779618

Today's RNS is a huge moment for Zephyr, having successfully extended the State 36-2 well lateral over 5,500ft. Staggeringly, the company have confirmed that 97% of the lateral was drilled in the Cane Creek reservoir, which bodes well for it's EUR of 2 million BOE target. A reminder that the original 130ft lateral produced over 2,100 BOED, so fully expect results to deliver similar (if not higher) measurable volumes for the company.

With testing taking place over the next month, this is a company making moment for Zephyr as they look ahead at unlocking the remainder of the Paradox basin. Expect a significant re-rate over the coming month on anticipation and on announcement of flow test results.

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1892503768622571774

I'm sure nobody listens to the crap some people spout on here, but just in case - rig and crew are already secured as per the latest RNS. Expect news to land any day now with drill schedule and 1st spud date:

Vecta Oil and Gas Ltd, operator of the Vector Helium project in which Mosman has 20% WI, has signed a drilling contract with Desert Eagle Drilling LLC ("DED") to drill five wells. DED is the drilling arm of Desert Eagle Operating LLC which has successfully drilled and is producing helium at the Red Rock field wells in Las Animas County, Colorado. The drilling contract includes the intention to commence drilling as soon as possible, depending on timing of various routine matters and weather conditions. Further details will be provided in due course.

For those interested, I've done some work scouring through all of the RNS and CEO interviews to build an AXL oil inventory, with accompanying production figures and estimates for 2025 (factoring in declines, quite harshly I might add). There's a lot of information and still a work in progress (including drill order TBC for 2025), but the figures really do speak for themselves:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1886853729229410470

The results were within 100 BOPD for those published by AXL in December and currently expecting February peak/average production to sit around 5,500+ BOPD (with AB-2 & 3), while January average will be lower on account of AB-2 coming onto production in mid-Jan (so around 5,100-5,200 BOPD / Peak of 5,300 BOPD).

Meanwhile, for 2025 the outlook is extremely promising. The company has an estimated target of 7,000 BOPD by year end, however given the inventory IP and 23 drills, I'm expecting this to be substantially higher. I've used the IP figures as a starting point and appreciating wells will decline over time, I've included a rather harsh reduction across all new wells in the calculation (using decline rates inline with horizontals from what we've seen), bringing total reduction across all wells in the inventory to 53% by year end. I feel this is pretty harsh, but despite this, estimated production is still exceeding this to well over 9,000+ BOPD by December 2025.

Only time will time of course, and everything I've published is based on my own research and analysis of company data and interviews - so take it however you wish. Usual drilling risks also apply, however the company has yet to drill a dry hole and their exploration targets already have proven oil historically, therefore this is massively de-risked in my eyes.

Anyway, I hope this puts into perspective how grossly undervalued this company really is for any potential new investors and those currently holding. Current market cap is £64m, yet the company is debt free, has ~£16m in bank as of early Jan 2025, is producing over 5,000 BOPD, with a annual net revenue of ~£75m, a drilling program for the next 3+ years, and a 2nd rig set to land on block in the next few months (maybe 3 subject to Oso Pardo discussions/negotiations). With a CAPEX program in the sum of $50m (£40m) for 2025, production and revenues are set to increase substantially (almost double) by year end - a re-rate is long overdue providing they don't become a takeover target (which is a really possibility when looking at other M&A activity in Colombia of late).

I've done some calculations based on averages of what we know so far and AB-3 should have come on to production around today:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1886844417262104782

Yup, and just added some more detail in my post below from the RNS for comparison - really effective process:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1886711337503305829

Good news today, great to hear all systems go on both projects now - exciting months ahead with Clink filling the gap on the run-up to Rudyard production in Q2. A reminder that per the original Clink discovery RNS, a lot of mud was lost in the Charles to hold back the pressure - acid washing is extremely effective at clearing out the mud with the added benefit here of the limestone formation, which acid is also really effective at clearing. Fully expect this to do the job and open up the reservoir - this was extremely effective for ZPHR in their Paradox Project for anyone looking for similar comparisons. Big things to come over the next few months!

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1886690583596396694

We've looked at The Bard, here's a closer look at Treasure Hill, only 12km south of the historic Model Dome field which saw Helium flow at 8%:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1885329133606957288

Have shared some research on this previously, but here's an overview and map of the Red Rocks Helium Project operated by Desert Eagle Operating, who Vecta/MSMN have just signed their rig deal with - currently producing from 6 wells approximately 16km from MSMN's The Bard permit area, they have the experience and know the area well. Rig mobilisation will also be quick and painless (perhaps even at reduced cost, be interesting to get the timelines/detail to confirm):

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1885271326887227774

Exciting play with lots of potential!

Great start again this morning.. Here's a map of the Las Animas Helium fairway which shows the amazing potential they have here - note there's two current and one historic producing fields within 15km of MSMN's permit areas with grades up to 8.8% - drilling to start any day now the rig is secured:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1885249427809398940

The post below from Botham nicely sums it up..

With Sagebrush acquisition due to conclude tomorrow, we can expect confirmation of our first of ongoing monthly oil revenues! Vecta news still able to land at any moment too, I’ve dropped a reminder of nearby helium finds which highlight the high chance of success we can expect to see! A lot of potential here in the coming weeks.. re-rate to come 🔥🚀

https://x.com/stallardmichael/status/1883483356333302126?s=46&t=Nn1y9oQHeTzxPFK5HxuXkA

Great read for a Sunday morning, the new presentation just shows what’s to come this year..

There’s so much short term news to move this north, including AB-2 & 3 results which will have likely tested the Guadeloupe formation, as well as also Pardo, progress on the new pipeline, and reserves update in March.. but those who are in this for the longer term will be the big winners. Currently producing 5000 BOED, the 7000 BOED estimates for this year are way underestimated IMO, especially as we can expect a second rig by Q2! It’s crazy to be able to keep topping up in the low-mid 20s at this point.. and with other operators being bought out (or close to), it makes Arrow a compelling case to buy!

https://x.com/stallardmichael/status/1883464952268394810?s=46&t=Nn1y9oQHeTzxPFK5HxuXkA

Well said Lloyd, and in today's interview Andy clearly outlined the plan forward for 2025 - which includes planning work already underway to put down our own operated well in our new Sagebrush project:

https://x.com/StallardMichael/status/1882343764787920943