Member Info for StadiumInvest

@Jmax

Hey Coop,

I did call 22p here, spot on again

No, you called sub 20.

@JMax

As opposed to the enormous volatility of the past 2 years?

Grow a pair.

@Auson

With the bonds priced at par repayment it would make no sense for Pictet to short the equity, so I very very much doubt it. In any case it seems absurd for them to continue shorting to 22p. As someone said yesterday at 22p all the risk is now on those shorting than those going long. Maybe the bounce today was them unwinding their short - remember every short for a quantity of shares is a guarantee to buy the same quantity of shares sometime in the future.

Understood. You could have made it easier on us and suggested it should 75 to 100p, and that's still a discount to Tullow's intrinisic value.

@Holbrooke

Exactly. Well said.

Auson I agree not all CFD and spreadbet providers hedge their position however the big ones do and I suspect they all do with exposures to Tullow. Tullow is too unpredictable and volatile and it's not worth their while (or their brokers to risk the market - especially as they make so much from the additional spreads they attach to Tullow (which is 10 times what they would attach to BP).

The problem with Tullow is the volume and value of trades is tiny. 5m shares traded (bought & sold) in 7 days (of which the total value of those trades was less than 1% of the market cap and still the market cap falls by 20% - that is just bonkers. The professionally managed money actively trading in Tullow is just too small. 77% is help in the mong-term by private and institutional investors. Watching all those AT Sell Orders at 08.00 every morning even when the Ordinary Price went up (yesterday at 08.00) all soon turned to Red as the AT orders were sold on exaggerated spreads hitting the margin call.

The AT Sell Orders have been in a doom loop as most of these originate with speculators trading CFDs and Spreadbets where the investors puts down 20%, if their equity loses 50% of their 20 initial stake then the broker automatically closes the 50% of the position. As such if the stock falls 10% the automatically sell orders kick in (of which we saw hundreds this week) This is made much worse at opening as the broker has a much wider spread than the Ordinary market (as much as 2%). Basically this results in Automatic sell orders when the Ordinary market has fallen by only 8%. This causes the doom loop as with more and more Automatic sale orders investors panic and sell, making it even worse.

As JP Morgan said when asked to predict the market he said "It will fluctuate". Simple message don't sell at the bottom when there's no reason to, and there was certainly no reason to in the past 10 or 11 days of trading.

The US election is a way over stated in having any effect on the OP. The move to LNG is still outweighted by the worldwide growth for diesel.

The market size by volume of diesel in 2022 was 1.35 billion tonnes.

The perdicted size by volume of diesel for 2032 is 1.75 billion tonnes.

The tax case is spurious at best.

Tullow is completely oversold as a result of being illiquid and tightly held with some malign actors using that to their advantag to drive it down.

Thanks for that - It is surprising the negativity on the OP. 5 Year Future Contracts for Brent Crude don't go lower than $68.48 and are mostly between $69 and $70 right up October 2029. Lowest future price for a Brent Crude Contract within the next 5 years is $68.48 for a June 2026 contract. How anyone can assume OP is going to go sub $50 or less when the entire enormous futures market says otherwise.

Tullow is suffering from so many speculators buying on margin and being closed out leading to further and deeper drops. You can see it with the automatic sales first thing every morning. Their broker should step in and buy these, the trading volume and value is tiny but they are moving this market. The Messianic rants by JMax don't help and are completely self-serving.

If Tullow was a widely held liquid stock it would be worth 75 - 100 p as of today.

I know you're not but if you're just going to throw out a claim for a Strong Sell on the back of Barchart Technical Opinion then it should be challenged for what it is. We both know you don't use it for the basis of whether you Buy or Sell, not sure why you pretended here why you did.

Barchart Technical Opinion is meaningless. Using historical analysis on stock movement to calculate future predictions - it doesn't work that way. The SP is related to future cashflows which indicate a 100% Buy.

All equity investors should know you can buy Tullow bonds and get a now nearly guaranteed return of 11%. If they canelled this bond, which they can now do, the share price will rocket to 50 - 75 p

JMAX - You still adding nothing but abuse? Put on another record and say something constructive, negative or positive, but constructive and well thought, please stop the abuse.

Nice is what I meant, one word makes a huge difference.

Either way I'm in, I have £140,000 at 28.61. , I won't even sell at 100.00.

..."Welcome to our game stadium, and our hefty profits are now going into equity,as said in my last post. I leave the long short garbage to the amateurs, luvya"...

Nice to hear from an adult.

I'm in at 380,000 at .283 ps. I'll pay for 3 daughters'weddings within 18 months. Not that I'd sell, not that they'll be married either.

...."Welcome to our game stadium, and our hefty profits are now going into equity,as said in my last post. I leave the long short garbage to the amateurs, luvya"...

Now to hear from an adult.

I'm in at 380,000 at .283 ps. I'll pay for 3 daughters'weddings within 18 months. Not that I'd sell, not that they'll be married either.

Not one seller of the 10.25 bond even though it is at par with 24 months to redemption - not one? You know why? Because every bond holder knows it will be repaid with 10.25% coupon plus par. The only other option is to buy equity, hence the bid up on the sp, it will continue to 75 to 100p within 6 to 9 months. With 45% of the debt being retired the only game in town now is Tullow equity.

Shorters are ready to pounce when it hits between 37 and 40 p. That's a fact..

What utter nonsense.

I firmly believe 34 p is the peak. Will be shorting all the way down to 30 p.

wooo!! Shorting 34 to 30!!

On what basis? Please explain how Tullow is worth 30p as opposed to say 60p? Honestly comments like yours are just pure and utter bs, based on nothing at all. Calling a peak and shorting for a 12% decline with c. 8% shorting costs on Tullow is just pure fantasy made up gibberish. It is a samll cap illiquid stock - day/weekly trading of Tullow is just roulette with better odds on the roulette table.

I can only guess the interns at the 1 fund shorting Tullow are asking the likes of you to post nonsense like you just did as a condition of your (brief) employment. Here's a tip, stop humiliating yourself.

The negativity on here is perverse, mostly from spoofing chartists and tea leaf readers - any LTH of Tullow can easily calculate the fair value is a minimum of 100p up to 200p if the OP stay at the $80+ and the deleraging continues as is. The Forward PE for 2024/25 is 1.