Member Info for St0wski

Good movement off the lows in the last week, however my interpretation is that we have been lifted along with general market sentiment.
I am extremely pessimistic about the rise in the markets over the last few weeks and I am fairly sure this is just a temporary retracement. Broad consensus over a global recession doesn't suggest to me we should be only ~20% of all time high in the main indices (especially after a 10 year bull market).
I both hope that LTH here don't suffer any more, but also expect that BMN will retest lows if the rest of the market does (which is my expectation). Regardless, I will be picking up some shares at these prices (or lower/higher) in the next couple of months.

Hope everyone is doing well in these strange times!

Disclosure: As per previous posts I sold out in Feb-ish time and will be buying again in a couple of months when I free up some cash (sold for wedding money but wedding has now been cancelled thanks to Covid unfortunately)

No way this bounces in 5 weeks IMO unfortunately.

I think we are seeing only the beginning of quarantine measures in the EU, still got the US to go after that and you can bet they will be several weeks behind us. Then there is the added risk that this impacts South Africa in a big way, which could significantly impact production at Bushveld.

China may be ramping up again but this level of shut down will take a long time to get businesses running again.

Hope I'm wrong but fear I am right.

I'll take that as a compliment seeing as he is sitting on ~120bn in cash right now ;)

Reading a lot of people saying they keep buying more which is all good and well, however its always good to spread it out and not blow your load at once. This bear market could last for a while.

Be careful out there, it looked a great buy at the beginning of the week and its another 50% down from there.

Sold out in January at a small loss as I had a wedding to pay for. I was expecting the virus to have an impact but not nearly as much as it has for BMN.

There is just so much fear in the market with relatively few "knowns". I expect we will continue to see slides in the market (generally) as earnings/growth is reported and the impact is finally understood.

Looking forward to freeing up some cash in the next month or so to buy at these levels, no brainer in the long run but it may take a while to bounce back, global growth will take a significant hit by the looks of things. I think I will probably end up averaging in over a period of at least 3 months to avoid trying to catch the bottom.

Shame to see long term holders so significantly down here, good luck to all.

I unfortunately had to sell out for a small loss here at 19.75 last week as I am getting married in a few months and have some bills to pay!

The RNS was extremely positive in my mind, output up, production costs down etc etc as everyone here has identified.

Fingers crossed Vanadium prices rebound in the near future, because when they do (not if) BMN will be positioned brilliantly to reap the benefits. Stay strong everyone.

Putting my money where my mouth is and bought a final lot this morning at a fraction under 21.5p.

This will be my last tranche here as I'm already a bit over exposed, but I'm expecting solid returns over the next few months here. Worst case scenario the price stagnates a bit more, but with the value proposition I think we have bottomed out.

Structural deficit in the Vanadium market and China potentially becoming a net importer, coupled with Vanchem and strong company profits - I'm hoping for a strong bounce to ~30p just to get things moving again here.

GLA

The volume recently has been awful.

If it helps I don't see it dropping much from here, so 25% would hopefully be about the worst it will get.

My thoughts are that the trend has been down for a while, but the bottom seems convincing around here (~ down to 20p). Any re-rate from here should provide some excellent returns for holders.

DYOR as always, just my thoughts.

@Alltorque "the trend is your friend" - if you have a larger risk appetite then now is a good time to buy, if you have a lower risk appetite then wait until there is a clear breakout from the trend to buy. You make less in the latter, but less risk. DYOR and good luck.

Yawn - I've stated numerous times that there is no point trying to trade this range. The risk/reward with a rerate round the corner is not worth 10% moves when you factor in MM spreads.

Since you asked for SP predictions - I think we will drift back to ~20p as has been the trend. I was hoping that last week had the momentum to carry us onwards and upwards but it seems not yet.

Need to close the day convincingly above 23.5p to break the trend line, otherwise it's just a wick above and we could stay range bound for a while longer.

Need a convincing move above 23.5p to break out of the trend line, fingers crossed this is the news to do it and we would then be on track for a significant re-rate.

Should it not happen on this news, I expect it to happen on the completion of the purchase. So either way its a buy/hold at this point for me.

Daisydog I think plenty of that is being overlooked to an extent yes.

However, I'd also go back to my overly simplistic figures earlier showing that BMN has decreased in value less than the price of our product has (roughly 55% compared to the 70% vanadium has fallen). Those rough figures suggest to me that some of the improvements you mention have offset the fall in vanadium slightly.

In an ideal world I would hope the market would price in the capacity and cost improvements, as well as a bit for the vanchem purchase.

Personally I don't attribute too much value to BE yet as it is broadly unproven. Sure it's a great potential market, but the market doesn't really exist yet (or is at an exceptionally early stage). I hope it all comes together down the line, and if it does BMN could do exceptionally well.

In which case can I highlight that Alfa brought up the Glencore point first and that I merely expanded on it?

If a multinational bank posts worse than expected results, other banks would be likely to feel an effect on the short term SP no matter the intricacies of their own performance. Ignoring the point doesn't make sense to me, we clearly have different views on what can or can't be brought up on the board so lets leave it at that.

Ahh the cycle continues.

A narrative that isn't solely blaming shorters and MM's is met by "he must have an ulterior motive / be a shorter".

The rerate required here (IMO) will be set off by a change in direction of vanadium prices (which may be starting to bubble over). It is not IMO going to be as a result of these mystery shorters and MMs deciding that we should be "allowed" to rerate.

I have always retained a ~90% LTH from the sub 3p days as I have reiterated before, but as that doesn't fit the narrative it is glossed over. For the record I've been 100% in BMN for some time now and do not stand to benefit from any further drops. The movements here of 23-24p would be impossible to trade with the substantial spreads that the MMs charge.

Glencore is a monster in our sector, it has operations in South Africa and is a fellow Vanadium producer. When a business like that has poor results due to "a challenging economic backdrop for our commodity mix, as well as operating and cost setbacks" - it is bound to have some impact on other similar miners - all IMO.

I also disagree that all of the price action has been as a result of MM's and shorters (although I agree they have probably contributed).

Take a look at the highest recorded price for Vanadium in the past 2 years - November 2018.
Now take a look at the highest recorded price for BMN in the past 2 years - November 2018.

It isn't some random coincidence that the share price of BMN has mapped the underlying performance of the very product we produce.

The price of Vanadium has fallen roughly 70% from November 2018 to today. BMN has fallen roughly 55% from its high in November 2018.

I appreciate that this is an overly simplistic explanation, and that there is a lot of other excellent research provided by the board members here that should be taken into account in the SP that currently isn't (e.g. the significant reduction in production costs BBN highlighted yesterday). However, I am frankly a bit fed up with the only blame being attributed to shorters and MMs.

/rant over

Net income down 92% for them as well. I imagine we will feel it a bit here today.

Shame that the downward trend has continued, I thought that the rns may be enough to break out.

Looks from the charts that we are forming a base around this level - I don't expect it to go much lower than 22-24p. Once we settle here it's a case of when, not if, we break out on the upside. Vanadium prices should help, hopefully they rally more over the next few weeks and we have a nice domino effect.