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Priceless pelle!

We know that net debt Jan 1 2020 was 1413m. We know that EnQuest paid down 148m during November and December 2019 when Brent averaged 65 and production was 68.5k boepd. Thus far during 2020 Brent has averaged closer to 60 and EnQuest has hedged 2.9m barrels at 65 during Q1. Production assumed to be round 68k. The average price will be around 62. So roughly income will be 20m less during Jan & Feb when compared with nov and dec. EnQuest could still pay down close to 150m by the time the annual report is published. As per previously I assume a profit of 200m plus and if we get an upward revision of 2p reserves that will paint a very strong position. The current sp is ludicrously low. Pe is currently 3.2 and with a profit of 200m this will drop to just over 2!

The more the hedge funds depress the oil price the greater the price towards the beginning of next year. Looking forward to see how the greenies react when they need to borrow money to pay for their electricity. What goes around comes around. The world has grossly mistreated the oil industry and the slingshot will hit extremely hard.

Thanks therapist

Thanks! Just had a look at the capital markets presentation again.I can’t really determine but amongst the accessible 2c reserves I would really like to know how much will be promoted to 2b. Anyone have a guess?

Hi chilts. Is that rig for drilling the western flank?

Lets See. The market always overshoots. Personally i am very much looking forward to the market panic that Will arise (maybe 1-2 years away) when we are producing several million barrels less than What demand requires

The damage being caused to the oil industry is huge. The oil price is impacting investment decisions and the financial state of companies and assuming that the corona virus is brought under control then the oil industry will very soon not be able to scale up output to meet demands.

Production is at 13m barrels a day latest reports

Hi KO,
Let's see. There seems to be conflicting views. It is incredibly uneconomic for the shale producers and I don't think the majors are enjoying much success as evidenced by an analysis shared on this forum late last year.

The Fcf improvement during 2019 when compared with 2018 is even more stunning because 2018 was indeed higher than what it should have been. The 2018 fcf was if I remember correct 220m usd or thereabouts but in reality 100m or whatever it was less as you say the capex was deferred into 2019. So we had an almost 3 fold improvement in fcf 2019 v 2018

The debt decline was certainly Steeper than anyone could have imagined. I Will say we could be in line for up to 225m. Unfortunately the results are often not as good as expected but i think this time could be different

Sounds reasonable Pelle. Finance costs and one offs will decrease and opex is reducing. I just hope we get a revision upwards in P2 reserves after the work at Kraken, magnus and in Malaysia. Then we are off to the races!

I have tried some numbers out in my excel spreadsheet. I am assuming an average realised price of $65 and we know the average production. I assume that other expenses is unchanged from H1 ($43M). I assume finance costs and tax in line with 2018 (could vary a little). I get a profit of $185M which is roughly 11-12c. If we can get a P/E of 6 which gives a mcap of £850m which would be about 50p :-). Something to strive for.

What will be interesting is to see what profit Enquest delivers for 2019. Does anyone have any estimates? Last year was around 127 MUSD. Interestingly, Enqust has paid down more in net debt than Premier during 2019 (361 MUSD v 330 MUSD) despite lower boepd. Premier has a P/E of 8.73 and Enquest 3.793. I think if Enquest can show an improved P2 reserves and a profit north of last year then we should start to rerate the P/E closer to Premiers. With that P/E our sp would be 60p (interestingly :-)).

Great news! Thanks for confirming kraken

Is that 11 days since last time?

I agree with HMH that BE is 40. I assume average production of 66k boepd and up until 1 october 2021 when the rcf needs repaying there are 670 days. Assuming 460m to be repaid, Opex of 21.4 and interest of 9 dollars a barrel enquest Will Do it comfortably. One could almost say the financial and operational risks are off the table. Given the impressive debt paydown during november and december i would Hazard a guess that kraken is attracting a premium of close to 10 dollars a barrel. Interesting to See What they say at the annual report. That has not been focused on enough by the analysts.

Truly impressive debt repayment during november and december. 148m on production of 4.2m barrels. That is on average 35 bucks a barrel. Does anyone know What the premium for kraken is? Hopefully enquest can pay down close to 400m during 2020. That would need brent to behave

Truly impressive debt repayment during november and december. 148m on production of 4.2m barrels. That is on average 35 bucks a barrel. Does anyone know What the premium for kraken is? Hopefully enquest can pay down close to 400m during 2020. That would need brent to behöver...