The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
First trade in Germany today for 10k shares at 0.097€ (about 0.15$CAD).
Good start but very low volume. But indicative that the upward trend may continue today!
50p!?
I want to see pictures of you eating your hat!
Most people "missed" the MMS had a MC of about 400m$ when the iron ore prices were high back in 2011. The iron ore prices are on the rise as there is a lack of mines and some M&A has been going on last year in the iron ore space.
The have spend about 400m$ in the past in proofing up the iron and then the iron prices went down the drain.
So they focussed on god knows what. But since about 2 years the focus has been on iron again as some new production is needed. This deal basically "honors" the true value of the iron resource that MMS has.
Hi Barksy1
Why the Hahaha?
Hi all,
been a while since I posted here. Just saw some very good news from MMS and wanted to check what you think of it here. But see that it has not "arrived" here. Check it out!
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/macarthur-minerals-signs-10-year-iron-ore-off-take
With 50 gigafactories in the planning lithium demand is a given.
But with companies like PLS and AVZ planning 10mtpa processing it is not so clear if BCN and/or EMH are really needed, especially on the short term. Both are more complex chemically speaking. The (currently) failed financing is a clear sign of this as well. So KDNC, BCN and EMH investors will have to be (very) patient.
If I remember correctly DHR is in a similar area as KDNC is in Argentina for searching for hard-rock lithium. They published some results earlier today which were not received very well by the ASX market. Does not bode too well for KDNC although nearology is not very reliable in any case.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-argentine-lithium-projects-update.4321940/#.W1huAjMjFaQ
Is this good or bad for BCN and KDNC? Basically only a temporary agreement for spodumene concentrate until NMX can produce Lithium Hydroxide and from then needs its own spodumene. So could just be a gap filler for Hanwa for the period where BCN is not yet producing. But step 2 might be an agreement to buy the Lithium Hydroxide which would impair the deal with BCN... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nemaska-lithium-signs-supply-agreement-100000867.html?guccounter=1
Hi Obs, I do understand how they got the number. Just a bit shocked that they actually dare to present it like this. It is an extreme case of "cherry picking' IMHO. And if it is legal it is really "on the edge". An other clear sign regarding the mind-set of the BoD. Cheers!
Got to admire the boldness of the figures in Table 1. A whopping 119% absolute return on equity in 2017!!?? Must be a great investment if one looks at that. But what did the SP do? Can anybody explain that figure to me? Is it legal to publish such a misleading result?
@addicknt I believe 2020 is a pretty ambitious goal. They will have to build both the mine and the chemical plant. And that in a pretty remote area.Will depend on the details of the plan and the financing. But the point is that also 2022 and even 2023 will still be a very good time to get to market! So it does not matter all that much I think. BCN should be a great investment on the long run.
Competition in the sense of producing lithium carbonate is very limited. Lots of spodumene concentrate producers (i.e. from hard rock) coming on-line until 2020 (AJM, PLS, KDR, TAW, MIN to name a few and of course with GXY and MIN/NMT already producing). Main competitor I guess is NMX (Nemaska) who are also running a pilot plant like BCN is. Also AGY (Argentina, Brine) is going for a pilot plant with production soon. And then there is LPD (Lepidico) which has a revolutionary method to produce lithium from lesser quality hard-rock i.e. from lepodilite rather then spodumene. They should have a pilot plant up and running in 2018, and bigger plant 2019/2020. But the biggest competitor might be Greenbushes who are going to build a converter for spodumene to lithium carbonate in Australia (Kiwana or so). And PLS may be on its way to do the same but 2020 would be too early for them I think. Currently all these hard-rock spodumene producers in Australia ship to China for converting there. But it is more economical to convert nearer to the mine (much less to transport, hence costs). But does not really matter. Demand for lithium in 2020 will most likely be larger then production. So very good time to come to market. Just not sure if BCN will be that quick....
Possibly also end of April according to last interview of Kirian.
Never said it was easy! Just pointing out that the main REM prediction has been correct! Lithium from clay is new and there are a lot of skeptics out there. Furthermore, China-Australia have a very good link and they have been the main Lithium production at least for all Chinese batteries. And I think all Chinese Lithium and Battery producers are just way to busy to "experiment" and Australian production is still keeping up (more or less) so no "dire need" to go into completely new, and thus RISKY, business with Lithium from clay. Fully agree that the pace of BCN is at best snail like (more like a snail on the breaks) which is very hard to understand and accept. My take on it is that BCN is looking for an off-taker that will co-finance the mine and production plant. And finding such an off-taker is not so easy as everybody thought. But Lithium is in high demand and production is not keeping up. So I think BCN is playing "hard-ball" and not selling cheap, contrary to what BGS was doing in selling their great asset for like $100m. So I think REM and BCN are in negotiations with potential off-takers but the urgency on the off-take side is not as high as we all think. Or at least the potential off-taker are not yet prepared to pay the price BCN/REM want/need. Judging by the moves from REM with EMH and BCN with the German mine, it seems that Europe is moving more rapidly then the USA (despite Tesla). So focus seems to be more on Europe right now. Guess Tesla and rest of the USA are putting their money on Nevada and only after that Mexico. In Europe so far little to no Lithium is produced, so more chances there also with much bigger and wealthier car-manufacturers... So guess Sonora has to wait until the USA car-industry pick up on EVs more than they are currently doing (and maybe also on what happens between the USA and Mexico with Trumps wall. Did certainly not help the BCN case)., So, yes, I still believe in BCN and Sonora, but even more in REM. Clearly they are much deeper involved in the Lithium market then they are given credit for. Also recently I have come to realize that the MMS move really has been a stroke of genius! When they made the move I thought the BoD was really crazy as it was (IMHO) to little and too late of a play to get into the Australian hard-rock Lithium market. Little did I know, less realize, the potential of their Iron ore. Soon MMS may be worth $200m which would bring the SP to over $1. REM bought in at 2c!! And that based on the Iron ore only. And meanwhile MMS has acquired some nice Lithium prospects in Nevada next to several huge potential Lithium prospects in Australia. So at the 0.5p levels I am quietly buying REM shares. There is only one way these can go. The only question is when, not if!
The main point I was trying to make is that the "main" prediction of REM is Lithium demand. And I believe that prediction was pretty accurate. All the rest will follow "naturaly".
Regarding wrong predictions. The main assumption behind the REM investments is that Lithium is going to be in high demand. However, due to the fact that Lithium is far from being "rare" on the face of this world it is of the utmost importance that the produvtion costs are very low. This is where Sonora excells. Loads and loads of Lithium for very low production costs. Cinovec is a bit different. Lithium production there only viable thank to the "credits" from Zinc and Tin, But with those credits in place it is a GREAT Lithium business case but with a strong dependence on the Zinc and Tin prices, not only Lithium prices. And the "original" REM business (Rare Earths) is slowly getting back to live as well. Great upside potential there in due time.
If they are selling them for 0.51 they can just as well sell them for 0.50, no? But then again if I am prepared to buy for 0.50 I could just as well buy for 0.51 I guess..... A couple of weeks ago I got 1m for 0.50. So who knows, may get filled again at that level....
I would like some more share for that price! Please people do sell, I will take 2m of these please!!
Interesting work casey. However, I have several issues with this table. It seems to be a weird mix of long term and current valuations. E.g. BCN valued at 600mGBP (C$ 960m) clearly a "future value" but MMS at 10mGBP (current value). If I focus on the "short term", i.e. this year, I would see the values as follows: Sonora Ltihium: No value. As long as BCN does not get forward there is little to no value here. Yangibana/Greenland: No value. Little to nothing has been going on here in the last 2 years and expect little this year (although commodities are stirring). They do have value LT but not much now. BCN: Here we hope that it will finally develop this year. But the time schedule is slipping and sliding. The 600mGBP in the table are certainly to high. I think a reasonable value would be C$600m, i.e. 375mGBP. But reaching that by the end of this year is optimistic. EMH: They are progressing much more swiftly then BCN but are a bit behind. Also the processing plant will not be simple/trivial. Expect them to stay on par with BCN and most likely surpass them. But lets put the same value for them as for BCN, i.e., 375mGBP by the end of 2017. MMS: This I think is the most undervalued part in the REM portfolio at present. Soon C$200m will be raised for the Iron ore assets of this company. This may actually be the part REM is planning to sell relatively soon to have the cash to develop the other assets. Very interesting "dark horse" in the REM portfolio. I value it at C$200m by the end of 2017 (125mGBP). AOU: Not clear to me. Potential Lithium in Namibia and gold in Australia. Seems more like a hedge in case the economy tanks... Gold will be good then. Little to no value at present but if they strike Lithium in Namibia this could be really good. For now will leave it at A$20m (12.5mGBP). Putting these values in your table all with 50% risk I get a SP for REM of 1p by the end of 2017. Almost double from where we are now. But I think the BCN valuation above is optimistic for end 2017 and also the EMH valuation may be hard to achieve. But this is accounted for with the 50% risk factor. For REM I think 2017 is mainly about MMS and potentially AOU. By the end of the year possibly BCN. Of course EMH will keep the news flowing for sure. They may beat BCN to an off-take agreement! Here the resulting table: REM Valuation REM Shares 7500 Asset Value (mGBP) Share(%) Risk REM Value (mGBP) GBX/share Sonora 0.00 30% 50% 0.000 0.000 Yangibana 0.00 30% 50% 0.000 0.000 Greenland Exp 0.00 100% 50% 0.000 0.000 BCN 375.00 19% 50% 35.813 0.478 EMH 375.00 21% 50% 39.000 0.520 MMS 125.00 20% 50% 12.688 0.169 AOU 12.50 11% 50% 0.688 0.009 Costs -14.40 100% 0% -14.400 -0.192 Cash 3.20 100% 0% 3.200 0.043 Total Valuation 76.988 1.027