Member Info for sportbilly1976

Shares platform shows last traded price, irrespective of it's size (hence the apparent sp drop even though the mid price is unchanged)

Similar on LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/landore-resources-canada-inc-_extensive-technical-work-is-currently-underway-activity-7249372798937104386-nivx?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Given the increase in the online bid today, I would suggest that either a new order has been placed, or the terms of the existing order have been accelerated (either get more shares or get the amount quicker)

NT at 4p

50k is quoting at 4.08p

It is economical and more importantly it shows access to the sulphides much earlier than expected.

Empire open pit was always the 'starter' mine to generate funds to enable deeper exploration and access to the sulphide porphyry, as well as further development of Red Star and Navarre Creek

...and there is the rumoured M&A rumbling on it the background too...the rns for which could drop at any time.

The Fund in for 143,700 shares at the moment

Gold - currently $2,470.

In May 2022 the PEA on 850,000ozs was $663mln for $2,340 gold and $773mln at $2,520...so assuming a linear relationship then this would, at $2,470 be c.$742mln

Allowing for cost inflation over the past couple of years, and just taking a 10% valuation (with FX at 1.3)...gives £57.1mln

312mln shares in issue = 18.3p per share.

...and this was on just 850k ozs...Landore are currently at 1.5 million ozs

Live on the website:

https://investors.phoenixcopperlimited.com/

That could well be a valid theory - if he wants to increase to a significant round number, why not pick them up cheaply and when there is some apparently liquidity of supply too....one might suggest some of the selling volume is from those who bought in the 10-12p range and are taking their 100% profit or so - a decent return for a few months

Ryan's last paragraph adding a bit more detail on equipment procurement

"In addition to reporting the Navarre Creek drilling results, I would like to provide a brief update on the feasibility engineering for our Empire Open-Pit Mine. We recently reported that the Company's corporate copper bond issue has been fully subscribed for a principal value of US$80,000,000, which will be drawn down and used for the construction of the open pit mine and processing facility.

While this funding will not have an impact on the mineral reserve estimate or the metallurgical and design engineering completed to date, it will provide the Company with the opportunity to outfit the open pit operation with lower-cost, pre-owned equipment. Much of this equipment has already been identified and is currently located within a 550-mile radius of the Empire Mine. The purchase of this equipment is expected to have a material impact on overall initial and sustaining capex, as well as on certain aspects of the process design detail, construction logistics, and the overall equipment procurement schedule.

We have already procured pre-owned ball mills, assay laboratory equipment and disk filtration units, at an estimated capex reduction of US$8 million. These items all form an important part of the feasibility work, which is now being updated accordingly."

EBITDA multiple would be circa 6-9x

So on the crude $30mln p.a then that would be $180-270mln (£144-216m)...so that is more a £1.20-£2 equivalent

Their LinkedIn post, and the press release attached also has the following:

"In May 2024, Phoenix released its inaugural reserve statement for the Empire Open-Pit Mine, reporting proven and probable reserves of 10.1 million tonnes containing 49,677 tonnes of copper, 104,000 ounces of gold, and 4,654,400 ounces of silver, amounting to a total of 66,467 copper equivalent tonnes. Whilst the company is making strong operational progress in multiple exploration projects, the reserves of Empire Open-Pit Mine alone shall assist the company in generating revenues of c. USD 550m and EBITDA of c. USD 250m over its expected mine life of c.8 years. "

So thats $250mln EBITDA from JUST the open pit.

Nothing for Red Star, Navarre Creek (potential full spin off), deep sulphide porphyry deposits, cobalt....

JB,

The issue here is the depressed share price, largely driven by the ill-fated Canadian listing by Claude (why he chose not to underwtite it??!)..this immediately took 60% off the share price as the market then priced in a further deeply discounted raise being needed for 2024 drilling....indeed you can trace the decline back further to the start of Claude's tenure when at every opportunity he talked about raising funds (thus depressing the sp by people forward selling in anticipation). So discounting these as artificially supressing down the price, a 'starting' sp would be closer to 10p

$3bln of resource is still there, it is still in a Tier 1 jurisdiction and it is still, effectively up for sale - Landore were never going to mine and go into production (another Claude error)

That results in the huge disconnect - one rns re a JV or similar significantly reduces it...that is where the 200-400%+ jump will come from.

Best guess, GF's average is probably double that range after his purchases this year.

Agree a corporate transaction of some form is the most likely to monetise the resource...TMS/D Burton thinks this is sooner rather than later ( "Company back in play" tweet), although talking his own book of late.

Looking at Co presentaion...gold at $2,340 gives a NPV of $663mln (based on May'22 costs)...even allowing for inflation over the past 2 years imo brings this down to c.$500mln or so...even an offer of just 10% of this is a 13x return from current prices.

Can see why we have had a steady £10k purchaser of late...buy when it is quiet and simply hold for the rns

"Our own Investor relations, Mr Pond has admitted to selling a chunk last summer.

He knows what's happening."

I assume you read his full post and so are aware of his reasons for selling, but you chose to omit that from your comment...it would seem to paint the view he sold knowing the share price would fall / the financing would take longer than expected etc?

You even phrase it as a statement, not a rhetorical question. Brave thing to do to a lawyer.

Agree - effective coupon for the bonds with copper ot $4.30 is 9.55% !

On your dividend point - I recall form previous investor presentation RW saying that he hoped the fist dividend to be payable to shareholders would be the repayment on the loan to Konnex which has built up over time.

It is a few years ago now, but the outstanding loan amount is roughly x2 the current market capitalisation of the company - so buyers at current levels could well see an initial yield of 200% on their investment within a few years...with ongoing and subsequent dividends from production free cash flow being a significant percentage as well!

Go to your bank and ask for a $10mln unsecured loan. See what you're offered

Fair enough and well played on your prior trades.

I suspect news of funding (which is in all likelihood the main catalyst here to get the sp over 17p in the short term) will see it sails past 17p and on towards previous highs in relatively short order....it is the huge uncertainty weighing down sentiment and investor confidence

As such you could well be selling at the inflection point...although emotionless de-risking is a solid AIM strategy in the current environment

You can have a free carry at any price around the current sp to de-risk totally?

Unless you have massively added in the recent week or so, that suggests you have been invested here since the sub-10p dip in 2020