RE: Better to wait to get a good deal25 Nov 2023 10:02
"The IOC's need to again act together and next gentle increase the price of the crude they are producing "
Belgrano, you assume that the IOCs are negotiating prices. I think this is a big mistake.
They do have the right to sell their share of PRODUCTION (as iterated by Soden and in contrast to the BS posted here by Paul and all his monikers) but that right to do so is embedded in a contract that Baghdad deems unlawful. So they would have to tread very carefully and I doubt they feel free to completely independently market their own share of oil production separately from that delivered to the KRG/Iraq.
People also see to have forgotten the discounts to Brent that prevailed prior to the pipeline closure which reflected transportation fees and a quality discount. They averaged $34 a barrel in the period Sep '22 to Feb '23. So a local price of, for example, $30 a barrel equates to $64 Brent. While the difference between this and current Brent ($79) is significant it's not massive. Also, importantly, local refineries likely sell their refined products into the local market and the 'arbitrage' versus Brent is likely unavailable.