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That is the question. It has been an unloved stock for so long because it has had so much debt and was always on the cusp of going through a debt restructure. So in the short term, the only thing that i could see causing a rise is if they announce a route to dividends when the results are announced. So if you're a short term investor I'd say buying in the run up to the results is the best bet. I'm tucking this one away on the pension though, so really looking at a 5+ year time horizon. As your initial post says, the stock looks undervalued so hopefully over that time frame we might be looking at around 300p to 400p. Then again, things never work out the way you think.....

Tilton, did you decide to sell a few more up at the 17p+ level or are you holding on for the results announcement? I'll be interested to see if there is any comment on whether the company has plans to deal with the CLNs. From memory, these convert in 2018, so it is not far away.

Totally agree with that. From a balance sheet perspective PUB looks seriously undervalued. The only note of caution a would have is that they have some very expensive debt in there - I think it's around £100m which rolls up at 13.5% per annum for the next 10 years. You're right as well that it is very cash generative. As a very rough estimate, it looks like PUB should generate £180m of EBITDA with an interest cost of c£110m, capex of c£10m, debt repayments of c£35m. That would leave around £25m for accelerated debt repayments or restarting dividend payments. Even paying out a £10m dividend against a market cap of £220m is pretty generous. Here's hoping there will be some sort of guidance on dividends in the full year results. DYOR.

Great news that they've won that contract for the Aventra trains for the London overground. You can bank on them getting the award for the 660 Aventra carriages that Bombardier won in East Anglia as well. Would be good to see that getting announced alongside a strong set of half year results in a couple of weeks. Next question for the directors is how are they going to address the convertible loan notes that mature in < 2 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-37031833 In a previous press release, PEG said they were supplier of choice for the Bombardier Electrostar train. Today's award is for 660 carriages for the Avantra model. Does anyone know if PEG have supplied for this model of train before?

Thanks Matthew, that's a useful note from FinnCap. It's helpful to see the 4 points/concerns which they raise. Certainly in relation to their first point, I agree that the prior year trading was a low base, so I wouldn't expect YoY growth of 15% (flat next year would be a good result). The other area that I don't think FinnCap (or the market) are factoring in is the strong cash position and no debt. Cash at end of last year was £21m and based on the forecast EBITDA this is likely to be c£28m at this year end. After deducting payments in advance from customers of c£8m, this still leaves around £20m of excess cash. When they talk about a low P/E ratio of 7.8x, this does not factor in the excess cash position. Or am I wrong in looking at it like that?

David, there are a lot of one-off amounts going through the numbers for last year which will not be repeated his year. From a statutory loss of £2m, there was £4m of finance costs that all related to pre-IPO and they no longer have that debt. In addition, there was another £4m of costs relating to the IPO. Even just adjusting for these two points, that would show an operating profit of c£6m. That is after depreciation and amortisation of c£5m, so an EBITDA of c£11m. Based on their guidance, they have said turnover is up 15% YOY, which is around £30m. Assuming this converts to EBITDA at around 20%, then we could be looking at an EBITDA for FY16 of c£17m. It is early days on the impact of Brexit, but if this doesn't have as big an impact as initially expected then I think this stock looks seriously undervalued at a Mkt Cap of £60m and no debt.

Does anyone have an idea of what the FY16 earnings expectations are? From looking at the RNSs, the board said in January that expedition was "significantly ahead" of prior year. Then in April they said it would be ahead of that, and again in June said it would be further ahead. Today's trading update confirmed that there hasn't been any Brexit slowdown. So on that basis, what sort of full year profits are we expecting?

Is there still an expectation that the board will issue a trading update soon, or are we just waiting on the half year results in September? Either way, would be nice to see the order book still up at the c£20m level and the recent share price gains held.

Would be good to see some commentary on further dealing with the debt pile tomorrow. If they can come to an agreement with the bond holders to pay down the expensive debt with the proceeds from the Matthew Clark sale or other non core disposals that would be progress. That could hopefully see them give guidance on resuming dividend payments in the next couple of years.

Looks like a very positive set of interim results with a good expectation for growth going forward and dividend to be maintained at 14p. Cash on the balance sheet of £32m has to help as well. Market Cap of £79m less cash of £32m gives an EV of £47m. Trailing 12 month EBITDA of £13.3m Valuation multiple of 3.5x.... feels extremely cheap to me....

Does anyone have any views/expectations on tomorrow's interim results? I would expect that they'll be ahead of the comparable period last year, but it will be interesting to hear if the board are as negative on the outlook for 2016 as the rest of the retail sector. My view is that the multiple here is so low, they could cope with a significant fall in profit and still pay a healthy dividend.

Reasonable set of results today, but largely in line with expectations. The big concern for me is the slow progress on winning new orders - £1.8m of orders announced in last 6 months. Hopefully we'll hear some news on new contracts in both the rail and defence sectors in the coming months. This is the second time the board have mentioned acquisitions, with the last time in the 2014 results. I'm hopeful that this time they actually go through with it and start putting the cash on the balance sheet to use. I'm still a holder of this share but I can't see there being any reason for the share price to tick up unless there are more contracts announced - or possibly a decent acquisition.

My assumption is based on the £20m pipeline announced on 16 March plus the £0.6m defence contract won in April less my estimate for their turnover in H1. I'm expecting this will be c£5.0m to £5.5m, so that leaves a pipeline of c£16m. Like I say, it would be good if they had won some smaller contracts that they didn't announce, but my worst case is around £16m.

It would be good if they did maintain the order book at £20m but I'm expecting this to fall to around £16m. There haven't been as many contract announcements lately, but hopefully they have captured a number of smaller contracts that don't warrant an RNS.

I'm expecting: Turnover £14.7m Gross Profit £4.0m Net profit £0.8m Cash £1.7m Pipeline £20m+ Would be good if they announced the MoD contract at £1.5m p.a. for 4 years as well. I'd also like to see something a bit more concrete on the acquisitions they've hinted at over the past 12 months.

Thanks Diplomat. I had read a couple of small articles about Evered Holdings being built up into a £300m mkt cap listed entity under the Abdullahs (albeit 20 years ago!) It does put some context around the comments in the last set of results: "The board recognises the value of acquisitions to enhance and accelerate growth and therefore also plans to review potential product and earnings enhancing acquisitions both within the Group's existing sectors or as standalone businesses capable of developing along their own paths." In my view, this represents an opportunity as well as a risk. The fact that the Abdullahs have some experience in building and integrating businesses does give me some comfort here, but I'd welcome anyone with a contrary view on this?

I think Tiltonboy makes a fair point about the capital structure of PEG - it's clearly not ideal having 20m CLNs sitting there. Ultimately though, that was what was required to get rid of the bank debt. As has been stated before, its fair to assume that everyone factors in this dilution when they place a value on the company. Tiltonboy, I've not been following this stock as long as you. What's the background to your negative view of the Abdullahs and their Middle East investors? And does anyone recall if the 10m new shares issued at the turn of the year were all to "new" investors?

Avanti Press Release today: "Avanti Capital Plc (Avanti), the AIM-listed investment company, is pleased to announce that Eclectic Bar Group plc, one of the UK's leading premier late night businesses, has today announced a successful fundraising of £15 million and the proposed admission of its ordinary share capital to trading on AIM on 28 November 2013. At the same time, Avanti has been able to sell down the whole of its shareholding. Including repayment of its current loan, Avanti will receive (net of costs including carried interests) approximately £9m." Pretty much in line with what was expected. They also announced they would distribute majority of proceeds back to shareholders in early 2014. Hope you backed them APA.

AP, you're right that the Eclectic IPO should fully repay the £7.3m of debt. The remaining 60% stake would be based on the net amount though, so a maximum of 60% x £12.7m = £7.6m. I'd be amazed if they can IPO it at the full £20m as well, so the reality is the proceeds will be less than that. In addition, the investment manager takes 25-40% of the proceeds above a certain level. To be conservative, we might be looking at £7.3m + £5.0m, less £3.0m to investment manager. That would mean net cash of £9.3m in addition to the current cash of c£1.3m and sale of Espresso for £0.3m giving £10.9m. As you say, that's a premium to current market cap, and you throw in a decent(?) investment in mBlox for free. Still looks cheap to me......