Member Info for Splice

Have a look at the charts for FLUTTER, 888 Holding, Kindred. They are all at or above all time highs. The gaming sector is doing very well and is the right place to be by the looks of it.
As RBC said in a note on 9/4 - William hill was considered highest risk / highest return.
At this stage, I would say the 'risk' RBC referenced has been largely overcome - furlough scheme (eg. Corporate bail out by gov), 125-150m in the pipeline from HMRC, June bond repayment is under control. RBC were talking about "up to a year" of operations cash reserves because at that stage we simply didn't know how long covid would lock things down for. Obviously things are significantly better and the 135p price target RBC had back at the start of April would logically be somewhat higher now these works are reduced. On top of that we now have government stimulus coming in the UK.
As long as the broader macro environment doesn't deteriorate, I think market euphoria takes this much higher above all time highs. I'm not saying that's rational, just what I think happens in this market.

Reopening of the economy, reopening of William hill shops, return of sports, stimulus released from UK government, euphoria and fomo in the FTSE, announcement of opening in Caesars properties, California constitutional amendment vote, better than expected trading results for the period announced in August. Possible transaction with another company or buyout could happen who knows.

These are the most recent broker forecasts:
18/5 Barclays 210p
18/5 Deutsche 120p
19/5 Morgan Stanley 195p
25/5 Berenberg 150p
It's difficult to price stocks right now and theres a lot of variation in price targets obviously. The 125-150m vat update was sent out 20/5, possibly only considered after this date by Berenberg. Bottom line for me is there are positive events coming for William hill. I think these events will translate to higher prices if the market agrees.

"USA is also in early stages and isnt as popular over they as expexted." Could you share more info on this pls?

The chart shows a relentless climb heading to 2. A fiscal stimulus announcement is coming as well apparently and that news alone will probably push the FTSE 250 as a whole.

The US has some interesting near term developments. The Caesars el Dorado merger will open up another 50 Caesars gaming properties for WMH to operate in.

There is a petition entering the California state assembly that would the people of California to vote on a constitutional amendment to allow sports betting in the state’s tribal casinos and racetracks. The state’s four horse racing tracks would also be authorized to house one satellite wagering facility. No idea on the chance this thing gets through but it seems wmh would be in a very good position to provide betting services to some of the 69 Indian casinos in the state - similar to el Dorado tie up. I believe it would include a mobile app that the casino can issue to allow punters to bet when not at the casino.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver told team owners Friday he’s targeting a July 31 return to play, US media reported, although the format for completing the season remains unclear.

The market as whole will grind higher and take wmh with it. I agree this may not be rational given the economic damage already done. The Hong Kong response from the Whitehouse was underwhelming and the market will likely react positively next week.

Industry splits UK sports betting - football 54%, racing 32%, tennis 6%, other 8%. Premier League resuming in June is not guaranteed yet. Once this happens (I think it does in June) it is apparently going to be broadcast on free to air TV. This is going to attract a lot of attention and we move higher. I think the one question is whether betting habits in retail shops will change. It should be fairly clear on opening day, I have a few shops near me and will check them out June 15th.

If it Bet Fred made an offer now at 200 it would probably get some consideration but they must know their window to move is closing quickly.

This market is not rational, Berkshire Hathaway trades at a pe of 46. Forward pe would be even higher. We are all just guessing about the future share price given that the market seems to want to price shares at crazy multiples. For me, I don't think the market has priced in all the upcoming positive events for WMH and I see it continuing to tend higher above 160 as the stock is derisked further. The August announcement will hopefully be not-as-bad as it could have been and hopefully wmh can demonstrate that revenue is on a path back to normal levels. Given the pent up demand for sports gambling I can see a scenario where the revenue is higher than anticipated when sport comes back. I think the real value in wmh gets unlocked through a spinoff of wmh USA on a us exchange because they seem to price gambling stocks at higher earnings multiples over there. I'm talking 300+ all up in that scenario

We have a lot of things in our favour in June, it will keep melting up

160-200 is a reasonable range

Fixtures will take place in England from 1 June in line with the UK Government’s provisional timetable for the return of sport behind closed doors. Racing was suspended in Great Britain on 18 March after initial plans to race behind closed doors were abandoned.

The first of 292 scheduled meetings over the three months to the end of August will be held at Newcastle on 1-2 June, with Kempton Park also being run on the second day of the month.

I'm calling 160 by end of June, too many catalysts

I think the bet Fred deal involves taking over the betting shops. A buyout would need to be above 2

Yeah that's pretty much my pricing as well, the 3+ may be quicker than that though and come before 2021. I think the us and UK markets are going to tear higher as things reopen and there is more vaccine news. That's what will take us over 2 this year. Not saying it's necessarily rationale but I'm pretty sure it happens due stimulus and the news flow.

I think after June 1 possibly, it's imminent

There is just too much money on the line to keep all these sports closed. They can be opened safely with daily testing of teams and supporting staff. Next step is also betting shops opening. The positive catalysts are piling up and I disagree that they are priced in yet. The biggest catalyst will be euphoria over a vaccine, the WHO has a 6 page list of candidate vaccines. Only one of them needs to be effective / safe and this market goes through the roof - https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

Since then they announced 125-150m payout is likely from HMRC. Between that HMRC payout and the government furlough scheme (taxpayer funded) for many of their staff things are not looking bad.

Nice moves, it's hard to push the buy button during a panic. This will see 200+ by year end in my opinion. Fred's moves will be interesting, I feel like he wants the network of betting shops mainly.