RE: USA ,potential6 Jun 2020 14:01
Morbox, I would like to look at polling or a predictive market to get an idea of whether Californians would vote 66% in favour of sports betting in casinos / race tracks.
I can't find a predictive market listing this yet but one may list this if/when a bill is passed allowing the ballot.
The only poll I can find is one from 2011. Here is an excerpt from an old article:
"A California Field Poll shows 53 percent of voters support legalizing and taxing online gambling. The poll suggests the measure as a good way for the state to create a new windfall of tax revenue. Pollster Mark DiCamillo said voters like the idea since the state is always looking for new ways to make ends meet. 41 percent of voters are opposed, with Republicans evenly divided on the issue. Democrats on the other hand definitively support an online gambling tax. Age factored into the poll as well. Only 35 percent of Californians who are 65 or older support the concept'
https://www.google.com/amp/s/sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2011/09/24/field-poll-california-voters-want-taxed-online-gambling/amp/
When reading that poll:
- it was 9 years ago
- the poll asked about legalised online gambling, not online sports book skins for Indian casinos and racetracks
- seems republicans are less likely to favour the bill, but CA is more Dem nowadays
- older generation was are less likely to favour the bill, but there has been generational shift since 2011
- CA government financial position has worsened since 2011, they need tax revenue now
In summary, there isn't enough evidence to know. The influence of the Indian casinos who may not like the bill as written is another factor. I'm sure there will be people doing analysis/polling if/when the bill gets through soon.
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