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I have just read this thread and thought I would re-post a short thread from yesterday which relates. Started by Tyla.

tyla

Fri 21:25

Posts: 1,063

Price: 166.00

No Opinion

Well a lot of posters were saying they thought a peer review of phase 2 wouldn't make much difference to the sp, well I definitely think it would, maybe we will see this week, I would go as far to say it would make an absolute minimum of 20% difference to the sp in a positive way obviously.

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spinnaker

Today 02:26

Posts: 110

Price: 166.00

No Opinion

Tyla

I wasn't totally sure of the process for Peer Review. It seems that the selected journal sends out the study or paper and relevant background research and/or trial/experiment detail to a number of scientists who may or may not be specialists in the field but more importantly are willing to donate their time for free. Once this process is completed then the journal will publish if all Peer Reviewers queries have been addressed and they agree it has sufficient merit to publish. Is that about right anyone?

I googled Peer Review and came up with this interesting article which I think outlines the pros and cons quite succinctly. https://scicomm.plos.org/2018/08/28/is-it-time-for-pre-publication-peer-review-to-die/

My conclusion is that publication in The Lancet will be very positive for the Company and SP and provide some mainstream journalistic interest. It will also give shareholders and others wishing for a successful early stage treatment a lot of hope and probably expectation that the P3 trials will prove successful. At present I am fairly surprised that Synairgen hasn't teamed up with one or more big Pharma but if they can fund and organise the P3 trial successfully and speedily alone it will have a greater impact on current shareholder value.

I wonder whether RM just couldn't negotiate a good enough deal with the dragons and decided to continue alone but with the Company having full control for the moment at least. Maybe 'No deal was better than a bad deal'. This situation obviously informed the placing, open offer, the publication of the asthma trials with AZN and this Peer Review of the P2 trials. The Board has handled the situation with aplomb in my estimation so far.

I have become increasingly positive over the past couple of days and consider the current share price will show a lot of growth over the next three months.

Best of luck and good health to all the great posters and researchers on this board.

Spinnaker

Tyla

I wasn't totally sure of the process for Peer Review. It seems that the selected journal sends out the study or paper and relevant background research and/or trial/experiment detail to a number of scientists who may or may not be specialists in the field but more importantly are willing to donate their time for free. Once this process is completed then the journal will publish if all Peer Reviewers queries have been addressed and they agree it has sufficient merit to publish. Is that about right anyone?

I googled Peer Review and came up with this interesting article which I think outlines the pros and cons quite succinctly. https://scicomm.plos.org/2018/08/28/is-it-time-for-pre-publication-peer-review-to-die/

My conclusion is that publication in The Lancet will be very positive for the Company and SP and provide some mainstream journalistic interest. It will also give shareholders and others wishing for a successful early stage treatment a lot of hope and probably expectation that the P3 trials will prove successful. At present I am fairly surprised that Synairgen hasn't teamed up with one or more big Pharma but if they can fund and organise the P3 trial successfully and speedily alone it will have a greater impact on current shareholder value.

I wonder whether RM just couldn't negotiate a good enough deal with the dragons and decided to continue alone but with the Company having full control for the moment at least. Maybe 'No deal was better than a bad deal'. This situation obviously informed the placing, open offer, the publication of the asthma trials with AZN and this Peer Review of the P2 trials. The Board has handled the situation with aplomb in my estimation so far.

I have become increasingly positive over the past couple of days and consider the current share price will show a lot of growth over the next three months.

Best of luck and good health to all the great posters and researchers on this board.

Spinnaker

Re Dumbpunter's comment on RNS 20 July

'>>SNG shows 79% success rate.
During treatment.
By day 14 and onto day 28 there was no difference between treatment and placebo.
>>What has made you completely change your opinion since then?
That.'

Surely by day 14 of treatment then most people had either recovered and ready for discharge or gone into ICU or died. If 79% of SNG treated patients had improved by then which is what is implied that only leaves 21% that appeared not to benefit from the treatment but may also have recovered. They certainly would be less likely to start to benefit from the treatment after the dosing had finished. Therefore I don't think you need to attach too much importance to this sentence. It may be merely showing that the drug showed no safety concerns after completion of treatment and also perhaps that the effectiveness ceased after treatment was concluded which is perhaps not particularly surprising .

Since the full results have not been published or peer reviewed I don't think we have adequate information to form a conclusion. I do however understand your query.

I would be happy to hear other interpretations.

Spinnaker

Didn't realise this was Evgen. Anyway, 12 months to get 400 people on the trial nationwide seems rather extended. This compares rather poorly with the two months long period envisaged by Synairgen for its international Phase 3 trial. I am concerned two months is a very short time frame particularly bearing in mind the much smaller 'at home ' trial has not been filled after at least three months but if we can keep to it I am very happy to have contributed to financing the trial through the placing.

Spinnaker

Org
You raise a parallel point. Worth making but definitely Conspiracy Theory. It's a joke I'd say to fit the storyline we would like. Pretty unlikely that hospital doctors and there were a few of them in the TV statements and Q/A outside the hospital would be drawn into misleading the public on camera. Unless you have any evidence they were actors!

I don't disagree that politics is a dirty game and probably much dirtier in the US than here. It's not that clean here either as we have all come to see.

Spinnaker

JohnLaw Surely this is not a subsidiary company since the RNS specifies it will be an independent company. Therefore the only time the cash can be rolled up with the company is prior to separation. I also read it would be £1m. Perhaps enough to set up an office, small lab but hardly enough to get very far with progressing the technology through to trials.
Is that not correct?

Spinnaker

Spinnaker

Well I'm not sure the title totally reflects the report. I assume this is the '****tail' of monoclonal antibodies given to Trump and which he has been advocating. I am not a professional scientist but the headline results seem mostly positive particularly on patients with low antibody level at the time of first dose. The age group is young and as this was an outpatient trial presumably early stage infection, ie non hospitalised patients. Certainly my take is that it does not seem as effective from the headlines as SNG001 Phase 2 results but neither have been peer reviewed as yet.
It certainly re-raises the question I have as whether any test were made on patients in our P2 trial as to antibody and interferon levels in patients on first treatment.

I think I have heard that the cost of this treatment is probably multiples of Synairgen. Does anyone know if this is correct? It may be outside the NHS budget for it's limited applicability or may be used only on carefully targeted patients. Assuming it is ratified by FDA of course.

Spinnaker

Sorry I meant 175p obviously.
S

I have really enjoyed reading this thread and remember the elation as I watched the screen for the whole day on what I prefer to call Magic Monday. I had invested initially at 73p and was feeling confident about the trials and averaged down in the 50s and 40s then a long wait. I was keen to invest more but was waiting for a cash ISA to be transferred to Barclays ISA. I lost patience with the banks incompetence and opened a HL shares account. I well remember Nolupus and Eva's postings. Nolupus had an increasingly conservative stance and was obviously concerned as the SP stagnated and reduced. Eva you should't go on about this. It is totally unfair on Nolupus to say he made Woodie sell and Woodie was happy with his own decision as he made clear in subsequent postings.

I fortuitously bought a couple of small blocks of shares in the 30s in the ten days before MM. That day reminded me of the Brexit vote denouement and also the Trump election live results broadcast. I couldn't believe what I was seeing on the screen. I just wish I had committed ten times what I actually invested then. I have since. at obviously much higher prices.

Coming back to earth and today's situation the reduction of SP well below the offer at 75p is very annoying and I didn't really expect it. If I had then I would not have committed all the cash to the offer. I tried to retract my decision yesterday morning but Barclays had closed the option on the 27th. Another downer compared to HL where I would have had until midday yesterday to make or change my decision. I now have no cash to buy any shares at this lower price. What will happen now I don't know. I wasn't aware of the failures in the the WHO trial until today and although not Synairgen's product and not inhaled the fact is that it was not only Remdesevir that failed but also interferon Beta 1. This will have a negative impact. There should be differentiation but some investors and politicians may not recognise this.

I agree that pressure on the media to concentrate on possible treatments is worth a go. My MP has given up responding to me now!

Has anyone posed the question to the company regarding peer review and why we haven't heard anything. Have they actually not released the full data of Phase 2 to the science community yet?

Thanks and good luck to all.

Spinnaker

Oxford, that's a great find. I am sure Synairgen will be making an application. I have a strong feeling that this care home usage as a prophylactic is very much on the cards.

I was watching the Proactive interview with RH yesterday and was surprised when he said that the government had been very helpful because I hadn't seen any evidence of that to date at all. In fact, despite what Eva has said I believe the government could have been more proactive in ensuring every GP and every call responder on 111 knew about the at home trial (together with any other trials suitable for the particular patient) and promoted them. I don't think this has happened since two GP's I have spoken to didn't have a clue. Three months and we haven't found 200 Covid patients nationally to agree to join the trial. Very disappointing.

Any way the point is, maybe Richard has been concentrating on the Care Home space in the UK since this might be an easier entry point and absolutely fantastic possibilities for the drug and maybe it is in this area that the government has been helpful. I have always thought that SNG001 could be a very useful prophylactic and as others have said, more suitable for the elderly than a vaccine. One thing we don't have much info on is how long any positive protective effect would last and my guess is only for the treatment period of two weeks and then lessening over the next week or two. That may not be that important. Just think if every care home resident and staff member were dosed as soon as a single person in that bubble was tested positive it should have a dramatic effect on severity of any other infections and prevent the need to move most or any to hospital. My guess is that the government will be feeling bruised about the vicious article in the Sunday Times stating that care home patients were allowed to die as collateral damage so as to prevent overwhelming the hospitals in the first peak. They will be keen to be seen to be trying harder this time around.

Spinnaker

I have been a holder here for quite a few months spiked at 134 and unfortunately still down. I am concerned about the delays. We have some competition out there and I see a significant order has just been given in UK for a blood prick PCR test. I suppose the UK will have a demand for fast tests for many months but am concerned about the delays here.

Does anyone have any comments about these competitors? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results#test-3-coronavirus-antigen-rapid-test

Spinnaker

MasterRSI

I just wondered why your last chart showing the double bottom is dated Oct 21!
Do you have a time machine?

Spinnaker

Well I have bought at most prices from 98p to £2.63 and down again, (in retrospect I can't believe I bought at that spike price) not sold any yet and can't wait to be out of the red once it goes up another 25p. I am not sure my heart will wait for the de-merger. Let's hope this move continues to £2 + this month. I am very glad the US shorters will hopefully be out but they may well take new short positions after this rise. I hope the momentum will dissuade them.

I wonder if the Trump episode and the fact that he was given mono-clonal antibodies from Regeneron is what has suddenly got the yanks interested in TILS.

Good luck to all. Spinnaker

I agree with you Newuncle. Can you email your posts to GB just to check he is on it?
Spin

Thanks Davde
Just worked it out.
Spin

Also no share trades from after 5th October so they must have transferred the ticker to the new name DVRG. Will try that.
Spin

The share price here on LSE has just reduced to 28p.

It's all a bit weird. I just noticed that in the last few minutes of trading the HL site SP went from 0% to +12% with a sell price of 30 and buy of 33. There is no charting available so I can't see when the change occurred. MWG has increased 3% to 2.9 and 3.05. I have yesterdays close bid prices on HL as 28 and 2.85 respectively. It all sounds a bit odd.

Spinnaker

I understand that the USA seems to value research stocks higher that AIM, including Biotechs but would issue a note of caution. I am also invested in TILS which is also listed on Nasdaq. For the last few months the share price has consistently been knocked down by the US market even though I believe the volumes there have been less than on AIM. There appears to have been consistent shorting on Nasdaq. The current share price is 25% below the last placing in the summer.

I must say I have been delighted by the consistent rise in the DDDD share price since I bought a 1,000 shares about 6 months ago and topped up in August. I must say I was shocked to see the SP was at one time (2015 ish) near £10 so there may be few LTH still carrying paper losses.

Spinnaker

Hi Dave and Lolm
I think you are both right but looking at it from different starts.

Dave I think you are saying that if your current average in TILS was 150 now and after the split the TILS price was 150 and the Stem price 100 you would have a combined value of 250 per share which is correct. so if you had 1000 shares in each company your total value would be 1000 x£1 plus 1000x£1.50 ie £2500. Also it means that if your current average in TILS was now 250p you would get out all square.

I am no expert but it would seem that there are a good lot of possibilities in TILS for the future and I expect to retain a holding over the next three years or so. In one of my accounts I have a large holding for me at an average not far below 200 so feel very exposed at present. I don't expect the Stem split to be as lucrative as some people here do. I think that a lot of cash will be required to progress the breast cancer trials and most of the money from the summer raise will be retained in TILS. Therefore perhaps a link up with big Pharma, II investor placing or sale of Accustem will be needed.

I haven't decided yet whether to keep or sell Accustem after the split. It probably depends on what I think of the share price once it starts trading compared to my view of the company value.

Best wishes

Spinnaker