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Brilliant. On the road I hope? I rode a Crusader Sports a friend owned once and went the fastest I had ever been at the time. 5 speed gearbox still ok?
Spin
Thanks Davey and Lucas
I am also a Synairgen holder and therefore am aware of the potential time delay between a promising P2 trial and P3. Also the way in which a c100 person trial was inadequate to gain traction. Even though the trial here is so small I do think there is an expectation of good results which has pushed the share price up over the last week or two and the delay is probably the reason for slippage in the last few days. However the fact that this is a three segment trial with a maximum of 16 in one cohort means as you say that a positive result would probably only impact the SP in the very short term. However, the world situation has exacerbated despite the vaccines roll-out and with the US now actively looking for treatments to add to its 'Activ' trials and state funding available there must be a chance that this drug will be picked up by the teams there if results appear promising. That would be as exciting as it is for Synairgen. Such an outcome could be transformational.
By the way Davey, I have a Norton Atlas cafe racer in the garage not used since a Europe tour back in 1978 so was interested in your handle.
Spinnaker
As a holder of these shares for many months and currently in deficit, I am interested in whether my fellow investors consider that the current trial results will have much impact on the SP either way when released.
I am not an expert in statistics but am concerned that the tiny numbers of patients in the trial will likely be inadequate to show statistical significance on any of the parameters. Also it seems strange that dexamethasone has been included given that current advice is that dexamethasone should not be administered to patients who are not severely ill and on ventilation.
Am I misunderstanding the situation? Extract from relevant RNS pasted below.
The clinical study enrolled a total of 39 patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 who did not require the use of a ventilator at the beginning of the study. This study had three cohorts: control (n=16), nasally administered Foralumab (n=12), and nasally administered Foralumab with 3 days of priming with orally administered 6 mg dexamethasone (n=11).
Many thanks
Spinnaker
I don't think RM's focus will be on discussing a buyout with Phase 3 in train and surely there will be insufficient time for an uninvited suitor to force a shareholder vote before initial P3 findings. If they are rubbish there won't be any suitors and if they are good the Board and shareholders will await full readout and the SP will do its bit.
I really don't think a £7 price would be reasonable if P3 goes to plan.
Spinnaker
Alexa I don't think many if any of us are anti vaccine. I really want them to work otherwise the future does not look good. I do not think that Synairgen needs vaccines to fail for the treatment to be very helpful both in and out of hospital. The worst thing is that both Synairgen and vaccines are too late to stop the current nightmare.
Having said all that i would be up for a drink down in Portsmouth as and when SNG is the standard care early stage treatment and the infection level is low low low. It would be really good to meet the notable contributors.
Well done for organising Axe. How big is this place and can we socially distance?
Spinnaker
Joey D
That is very interesting and rather worrying. I did read Pfizer were not recommending any delay to second dosing. Let's hope the government are giving the Pfizer vaccine recipients their second dose early.
I have come across 2 people who have had two doses, one of which was definitely Pfizer.
Spinnaker
Thanks Org and Phil.
As all of us, I have had quite a few disappointments and also days of elation with this stock over the past 9 months. One thing I have learned is that it is not particularly helpful to assume the future is at all certain and to understand that situations change over time.
I do agree with others that there will be more concentration by all governments on preparation for future pandemics and this could be transformative for Synairgen. Always remember there is 'many a slip twixt cup and lip'.
Spinnaker
Thanks PhilG.
I had started writing another long post but have reconsidered.
Briefly, I told my son-in-law a couple of months ago that I thought this SP had a good chance of rising to £6 by the end of March. I am now tending to agree with Ghia and Doc that £5 (£1bn) pre P3 results , hopefully by May, is a reasonable target and we should reassess the situation as and when the results are released if no EUA prior.
Spinnaker
Phil G
I have just read this thread and of course am tremendously supportive of the company as you are.
When I first invested in April I did some research and recall the the patents held covered only UK, EU and USA. Therefore although that doesn't mean we couldn't sell outside those areas I would expect there would be competition, e.g. from China and and/or India unless we or a partner/ licensee applied for RoW patents to protect I.P.
I hope and fully expect the share price to do very well or would not be holding in a volume that dwarfs my other small investments, however I do get concerned that some on this board build up expectations which may lead to disappointment or worse. True, if P3 results are very good say 40% likelihood of better outcome than placebo with Covid there will be a significant SP rise, Following further trials in due course the treatment should prove very worthwhile for COPD and asthma patients who contract viral lung infections and also possibly as abroad anti-viral treatment.
The Covid potential is obviously the current driver. The massive short/medium term demand for Covid treatment will require huge manufacturing and supply volume in the next six months and I can't see how Synairgen could do this without help. I am hopeful that the Government has already placed pre-orders but this seems unlikely at present. They weren't shy about announcing vaccine pre-orders. Again, some hope that Biden would do that in the expectation of positive P3 but early days there at present although visibility is improving.
RM's statement of multi million doses implies that there is some arrangement in place for financing the build-up beyond the cash raised last year. I must admit I expected a J/V or licence to be organised immediately after P2 trials but I'm not sure it has been done and have seen no RNS to that effect. We will have first mover advantage but without partners or licensees I am not sure we will have the supply facility to meet likely demand particularly in Europe and USA let alone other countries in a reasonable time frame..
The short answer to the OP's question is that with all the unknowns it is difficult to value this company without making a load of assumptions. The current best indication of the perceived value must be what the stock market says but with the potential of a huge upside and a risk (hopefully smaller) of a less huge downside.
I invested most of my holding in the cash raise at 175p so I obviously expected the share price would rise from there. We are a lot further down the line now.
The best thing about this company I believe is that it has designed a treatment that could save many lives and minimise organ damage and therefore long term health problems for infected people. I believe it is complementary to the vaccines and will be a massively useful treatment in the long term. I just wish it was readily available now as we all do.
Sorry if I have bored anyone.
CR 1909
The BoD was clear that the fund raise would be used partly to prepare elements for high production requirements, particularly long lead time elements. Also part of the fund raise was for the P3 trial. SH has some money to produce but we have not yet any evidence that current production is in excess of trials and MAP requirements.
There is no direct evidence of any firm pre-orders yet. Contrast this with vaccine news wher the UK govt. was all over the press saying how many million doses had been ordered from the different manufacturers of untested vaccines.
BJ
Yes there will be sub-contracts. As I have said before I thought there would have been a link-up with a big pharma post P2 results but this could still happen now.
Spinnaker
Yes I think he said trials would be completed by early summer and he envisaged production of millions of doses. I'm just a bit concerned that someone has got to pay for a massive ramp up in production and the company will need solid orders as per vaccine to be able to prepare for authorisation. Otherwise there will be a huge demand and limited supply for months.
I hope that the USA and UK governments will both take the risk and commit to advance orders.
A brilliant interview. If you listen to what Prof Holgate said and believe it; ie the treatment has no adverse effects and it has been shown to work then even the most hard-bitten or cynical politician or citizen will be wondering why oh why is it not being used already to help prevent the overunning of our NHS and thousand of deaths.
I can well understand the frustration of all investors and Prof. Holgate in particular.
I am very confident in my holding.
Spinnaker
Good luck BB and Sterland and well done getting on the trial.
It's odd I spoke to someone yesterday who said they wouldn't want to be on the trial but would rather have the drug than maybe not. Fair enough, but if you can't get the drug otherwise you will be no worse off. I would think that in particular cases if someone became really ill the medics could unblind that case before they died anyway.
Very positive vibes around now. My prediction of £6 to my brother-in-law by end March is not impossible. He is still well down at present though.
Best of luck to all, particularly those like me who averaged up dramatically in the placing but have held firm with conviction. Thanks also to all the brilliant posters here who have kept our spirits up.
Nasdaq price still 30p per share below London.
I sold half my holding in TILS just now at near break even and was planning to buy TLSA through II. I phoned them and they told me they are no longer allowing purchases of TLSA, only sales.
Does anyone have a recommendation of a platform to buy TLSA shares since neither Barclays nor H/L will deal in them.
Thanks
Spinnaker
I am sure this is a brilliant appointment for the company. It certainly needs some heavy hitters, not only on the development side but also the monetisation element.
The next appointment will hopefully be in Investor relations!
Spinnaker
Bella
I responded to your post late yesterday but will have got lost in the rush following the excellent news today both here re P3 start and in US.
I felt slightly strange listening to the story of the mum in Hull who has just been dosed. It seemed to pass by the BBC that this was a trail and there was a 50% chance of her receiving placebo!
If we get BBC exposure increasing then that could drive take up of MAP.
re-posted below:-
Bella
My view is that at present almost no doctor in most of the UK has any time to read emails let alone professional publications. Their noses are to the grindstone and they are not coming up for breath that often.
I corresponded with Clinigen and they told me that they had no authority to publicise the MAP authorisation so most probably a large percentage of front line medics don't even know about SNG001 let alone the MAP situation. I would suggest that paper and article will have almost no effect on the visibility of the treatment. EUA and subsequently being adopted as standard care by US or UK would obviously be transformational though.
Has anyone asked Synairgen how many MAP applications or authorisations there have been so far? Clinigen wouldn't tell me and I haven't ever corresponded with anyone at Synairgen and I don't suppose they would answer an unknown investor right now.
Spinnaker