Member Info for spinnaker

Thanks Dafad for that.

I found Michel Goldmans closing comments very interesting. Convalescent plasma being difficult to organise but maybe suitable for developing countries only. Surprised they are still discussing this after initial negative test results. The alternative mcabs have two drawbacks , namely production capacity and cost. The elephant in the room was that the interviewer did not want Goldman to expand on the inhaled interferon treatment he mentioned, it sounded very like he was specifically talking about Synairgen, despite the fact that it ticks all the boxes, depending on price perhaps, for early treatment . It seemed clear that most of the doctors were agreed that a treatment to prevent ventilation was what is desperately needed.

Also, the other very interesting point made by Goldman was that we urgently need research , perhaps using AI to determine people who are likely to progress to serious disease for whatever reason. This is because whatever treatments we find , even probably SNG001, are unlikely to be able to be utilised for a significant proportion of people who test positive. The available early stage treatments being expensive and rare at present need to be targeted to those who will most benefit. I read today that there are a number of blood markers that are indicative of infection without antigen test and some of these markers are able to inform likely severity of disease and mortality.

On this latter point I imagine it will be a year or two before that is organised and without this Synairgen's inhaled treatment is most definitely the number one likely useful candidate at present.

Despite SP reduction today everyone should be feeling positive and I am really quite excited about the progression of our journey in the next two to three months.

Spinnaker

Thank you Ghia and I agree there is little interest in promoting the current limited access under MAP. The target is much much larger. It may be that Clinigen can be helpful in the future for wider distribution purposes.
Spin

I wrote to Clinigen who told me they are not publicising the availability under MAP and can give me no information at all on any aspect of level of interest or take-up in any country.

Pretty pathetic really. I doubt 5% of doctors have a clue it is available and those on the front line have no head space or time to research since they are all stressed out and knackered. I have a couple of relatives in this position.

Not ideal and I think that without major publicity the MAP access will not be taken up to any significant degree if at all. We are reliant on Activ 2 and P2 At home and P3 trials.

Nevertheless, assuming good results the company and its treatment should be on the verge of making a meaningful contribution to reducing severe disease and deaths.

I am more positive than I have been for a few months. Thanks for all the excellent research done here particularly by PMJH but also quite a few others.

Spinnaker

Brilliant. On the road I hope? I rode a Crusader Sports a friend owned once and went the fastest I had ever been at the time. 5 speed gearbox still ok?

Spin

Thanks Davey and Lucas

I am also a Synairgen holder and therefore am aware of the potential time delay between a promising P2 trial and P3. Also the way in which a c100 person trial was inadequate to gain traction. Even though the trial here is so small I do think there is an expectation of good results which has pushed the share price up over the last week or two and the delay is probably the reason for slippage in the last few days. However the fact that this is a three segment trial with a maximum of 16 in one cohort means as you say that a positive result would probably only impact the SP in the very short term. However, the world situation has exacerbated despite the vaccines roll-out and with the US now actively looking for treatments to add to its 'Activ' trials and state funding available there must be a chance that this drug will be picked up by the teams there if results appear promising. That would be as exciting as it is for Synairgen. Such an outcome could be transformational.

By the way Davey, I have a Norton Atlas cafe racer in the garage not used since a Europe tour back in 1978 so was interested in your handle.

Spinnaker

As a holder of these shares for many months and currently in deficit, I am interested in whether my fellow investors consider that the current trial results will have much impact on the SP either way when released.

I am not an expert in statistics but am concerned that the tiny numbers of patients in the trial will likely be inadequate to show statistical significance on any of the parameters. Also it seems strange that dexamethasone has been included given that current advice is that dexamethasone should not be administered to patients who are not severely ill and on ventilation.

Am I misunderstanding the situation? Extract from relevant RNS pasted below.

The clinical study enrolled a total of 39 patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 who did not require the use of a ventilator at the beginning of the study. This study had three cohorts: control (n=16), nasally administered Foralumab (n=12), and nasally administered Foralumab with 3 days of priming with orally administered 6 mg dexamethasone (n=11).

Many thanks

Spinnaker

I don't think RM's focus will be on discussing a buyout with Phase 3 in train and surely there will be insufficient time for an uninvited suitor to force a shareholder vote before initial P3 findings. If they are rubbish there won't be any suitors and if they are good the Board and shareholders will await full readout and the SP will do its bit.

I really don't think a £7 price would be reasonable if P3 goes to plan.

Spinnaker

How?

Alexa I don't think many if any of us are anti vaccine. I really want them to work otherwise the future does not look good. I do not think that Synairgen needs vaccines to fail for the treatment to be very helpful both in and out of hospital. The worst thing is that both Synairgen and vaccines are too late to stop the current nightmare.

Having said all that i would be up for a drink down in Portsmouth as and when SNG is the standard care early stage treatment and the infection level is low low low. It would be really good to meet the notable contributors.

Well done for organising Axe. How big is this place and can we socially distance?

Spinnaker

Joey D

That is very interesting and rather worrying. I did read Pfizer were not recommending any delay to second dosing. Let's hope the government are giving the Pfizer vaccine recipients their second dose early.

I have come across 2 people who have had two doses, one of which was definitely Pfizer.

Spinnaker

Thanks Org and Phil.

As all of us, I have had quite a few disappointments and also days of elation with this stock over the past 9 months. One thing I have learned is that it is not particularly helpful to assume the future is at all certain and to understand that situations change over time.

I do agree with others that there will be more concentration by all governments on preparation for future pandemics and this could be transformative for Synairgen. Always remember there is 'many a slip twixt cup and lip'.

Spinnaker

Thanks PhilG.

I had started writing another long post but have reconsidered.

Briefly, I told my son-in-law a couple of months ago that I thought this SP had a good chance of rising to £6 by the end of March. I am now tending to agree with Ghia and Doc that £5 (£1bn) pre P3 results , hopefully by May, is a reasonable target and we should reassess the situation as and when the results are released if no EUA prior.

Spinnaker

Phil G

I have just read this thread and of course am tremendously supportive of the company as you are.

When I first invested in April I did some research and recall the the patents held covered only UK, EU and USA. Therefore although that doesn't mean we couldn't sell outside those areas I would expect there would be competition, e.g. from China and and/or India unless we or a partner/ licensee applied for RoW patents to protect I.P.

I hope and fully expect the share price to do very well or would not be holding in a volume that dwarfs my other small investments, however I do get concerned that some on this board build up expectations which may lead to disappointment or worse. True, if P3 results are very good say 40% likelihood of better outcome than placebo with Covid there will be a significant SP rise, Following further trials in due course the treatment should prove very worthwhile for COPD and asthma patients who contract viral lung infections and also possibly as abroad anti-viral treatment.

The Covid potential is obviously the current driver. The massive short/medium term demand for Covid treatment will require huge manufacturing and supply volume in the next six months and I can't see how Synairgen could do this without help. I am hopeful that the Government has already placed pre-orders but this seems unlikely at present. They weren't shy about announcing vaccine pre-orders. Again, some hope that Biden would do that in the expectation of positive P3 but early days there at present although visibility is improving.

RM's statement of multi million doses implies that there is some arrangement in place for financing the build-up beyond the cash raised last year. I must admit I expected a J/V or licence to be organised immediately after P2 trials but I'm not sure it has been done and have seen no RNS to that effect. We will have first mover advantage but without partners or licensees I am not sure we will have the supply facility to meet likely demand particularly in Europe and USA let alone other countries in a reasonable time frame..

The short answer to the OP's question is that with all the unknowns it is difficult to value this company without making a load of assumptions. The current best indication of the perceived value must be what the stock market says but with the potential of a huge upside and a risk (hopefully smaller) of a less huge downside.

I invested most of my holding in the cash raise at 175p so I obviously expected the share price would rise from there. We are a lot further down the line now.

The best thing about this company I believe is that it has designed a treatment that could save many lives and minimise organ damage and therefore long term health problems for infected people. I believe it is complementary to the vaccines and will be a massively useful treatment in the long term. I just wish it was readily available now as we all do.

Sorry if I have bored anyone.

Org
I think you went overboard with your excessive use of the full stop in your last post. Chuckle.

Spin

CR 1909
The BoD was clear that the fund raise would be used partly to prepare elements for high production requirements, particularly long lead time elements. Also part of the fund raise was for the P3 trial. SH has some money to produce but we have not yet any evidence that current production is in excess of trials and MAP requirements.

There is no direct evidence of any firm pre-orders yet. Contrast this with vaccine news wher the UK govt. was all over the press saying how many million doses had been ordered from the different manufacturers of untested vaccines.

BJ

Yes there will be sub-contracts. As I have said before I thought there would have been a link-up with a big pharma post P2 results but this could still happen now.

Spinnaker

Yes I think he said trials would be completed by early summer and he envisaged production of millions of doses. I'm just a bit concerned that someone has got to pay for a massive ramp up in production and the company will need solid orders as per vaccine to be able to prepare for authorisation. Otherwise there will be a huge demand and limited supply for months.

I hope that the USA and UK governments will both take the risk and commit to advance orders.

A brilliant interview. If you listen to what Prof Holgate said and believe it; ie the treatment has no adverse effects and it has been shown to work then even the most hard-bitten or cynical politician or citizen will be wondering why oh why is it not being used already to help prevent the overunning of our NHS and thousand of deaths.

I can well understand the frustration of all investors and Prof. Holgate in particular.

I am very confident in my holding.

Spinnaker

2seabass
Ah! - but we don't know and may never know whether she was given the placebo.

Was it on the 10pm news ? I didn't spot it.

Spin

Thank yo Sam. That is a brilliant informative and concise presentation. The BBC could learn a lot here.
Spinnaker

Shan
Did you not spot this is re Phase 2 trial last updated August 2020!
Spin

Good luck BB and Sterland and well done getting on the trial.

It's odd I spoke to someone yesterday who said they wouldn't want to be on the trial but would rather have the drug than maybe not. Fair enough, but if you can't get the drug otherwise you will be no worse off. I would think that in particular cases if someone became really ill the medics could unblind that case before they died anyway.

Very positive vibes around now. My prediction of £6 to my brother-in-law by end March is not impossible. He is still well down at present though.

Best of luck to all, particularly those like me who averaged up dramatically in the placing but have held firm with conviction. Thanks also to all the brilliant posters here who have kept our spirits up.