Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for your interest Markshares.
I listened to a CF interview in April and I was impressed with his no nonsense approach and bought two small tranches of shares which I have held undisturbed since then. He stressed the company was in the service industry and investors should not be looking for anything other than solid growth and a respectable return. To be honest, that is what it has delivered so I very much like the fairly low key approach with growing the business for the benefit of shareholders.
He has done exactly what he said and over-performed which is refreshing, I am most impressed as an intending long term investor.
I am very keen on the expansion on the Challenge studies and locations. I have been boring my friends for ages that this is the only way we will get detailed information on the virus progression unlike the vaccine tests where it was just a matter of chance who caught the virus and how much viral load etc.
I do hope the SP doesn't spike tomorrow since that would destroy the very steady progress made in the last year, bring in new investors who will get burnt. I'm not keen on the pump and dump brigade. How about you?
Best wishes
Spinnaker
I'm watching Newboy but I am not sure that anyone who doesn't know the relationship between the Royal Free challenge test and Orph already will be any the wiser after watching the news. Although we may be very proud, rightly so, I don't think it will have much effect on the share price unless the journos explain HVivo and Orph.
Spinnaker
foobar
Thanks for that but the full text doesn't seem to be available. Does one have to email a request or is it restricted access?
Spinnaker
I couldn't believe I suddenly saw 196 on my screen. I took far too long to realise there was a speeding ticket RNS. Now bounced back. Wow! Far too late to buy the dip and no doubt it would have locked me out anyway. I doubt if there were any sales at the low. Just MMs snapping up stop losses most probably.
Spinnaker
Extract continued.
's. 106 What is unclear
from the statement is what institutions are bound up in the term “global funding.” Moreover, updated
figures on the funding gap are not easy to find but will be available when the strategy and total
commitments are refreshed in the coming days. At the very least, we know that the gap between funding
for vaccines and for treatments is stark. Dr Cammack also made the following statement about total
funding needed: “We've estimated that to provide treatments around the world, it will probably need $7
billion (£5.4 billion) – a huge number, I know, but compared with a probable $7 trillion (£5.4 trillion)
economic hit, it’s minuscule."
107
While dexamethasone is cheap and is readily available, it is administered to Covid-19 patients who are
using supplemental oxygen. News reports have indicated that many hospitals on the continent are
running out of oxygen, with both hospitals and their suppliers caught off guard and scrambling to provide
it quickly. The shortage extends elsewhere in the supply chain to oxygen tanks, as some patients may use
up to ten per day; and drivers need to be trained to drive oxygen tankers.
108 Interviews with informed
sources suggest that demand for the drug is just beginning to increase, probably because the surge in
cases requiring hospitalisation is just now becoming evident.
25
It is unclear whether the ACT-A will provide assistance in sourcing other drugs, such as remdesivir. '
£7billion treatment fund required worldwide actually sounds very low but I assume it relates to LMICs only.
Spinnaker
Ferrari- thanks for your post.
That is a pretty comprehensive report which concentrates the necessity for access to early stage treatments to all but particularly for Low and Middle Income Countries. It seems that probable that cheap tablets are going to be the only way high availability of treatments will be available to these countries and I expect that Synairgen would be too costly and complicated to administer to be seriously effective.
There are a couple of potential treatments mentioned in the report currently undergoing trials which may be competitors to Synairgen.
The lack of funding for Global treatments is mentioned below. At present Dex is available but some hospitals don't have enough oxygen so that is going to be less effective in those instances.
The report suggests that Global funding will seek to provide mAbs worldwide and therefore potentially SNG-001 could be funded similarly. I expect this is an unachievable aim in the foreseeable future and in any event once approved I expect near term production SNG will be fully taken up by USA, UK and EU.
'The immediate need that the therapeutics pillar is addressing is finding drugs for LMICs, with a focus on
marginalised communities. “It is analysing over 1,700 clinical trials for promising treatments and has
secured dexamethasone for up to 2.9 million patients in low-income countries. The Global Fund and
UNICEF are the institutions that are actually procuring dexamethasone for LMICs. Access to
dexamethasone has been expedited through an emergency use listing (EUL) procedure, publication of
treatment guidelines, and the creation of a stockpile for emergency use.” 105 It has also secured an
agreement to help facilitate future access to monoclonal antibody therapies in low- and middle-income
countries.
The main constraint – as far as can be determined from publicly available documents – is funding. The
total committed is just over $6 billion – but an additional $3.5 billion is needed urgently. For 2021, the
funding gap is $23.7 billion if tools are to be deployed across the world as they become available. These
numbers are not disaggregated, so do not take specific account of the funding gap for treatments alone.
However, public statements on promising therapies made by Dr Nick Cammack, head of the Wellcome
Trust's Covid-19 Therapeutic Accelerator project, are suggestive. In statements made on 7 October
2020, he argued that there needs to be more “global funding and the engagement of large and small
companies” in this space, highlighting that £1.5 billion has been pumped into the race for a vaccine, while
only £232 million has been invested in the research and development of treatments.'
Cont. below
Spinnaker
Matml
Thanks for that link. I assume then that the new Aerogen nebuliser design has been fitted with a hepafilter on the exhaust port so the doctors won't be too concerned that using it may exacerbate infection spread. That is good news because initial take-up may well depend on doctors being comfortable with the procedures in utilisation.
Spinnaker
Adverse PR from the WHO trial on s/c injected Interferon Beta has and will continue to have an adverse impact on perception. This is not helped by lazy journos who don't differentiate between treatments.
On patents, as far as I have read the patents existing are not worldwide and apply to UK,EU and USA only. Whether they will be effective and adequate is another matter on which I have no experience and therefore am not able to comment. One can only say that Synairgen would have taken professional expert advice and those advisors presumably have a duty of care and could be sued under their PI policies if found negligent in their advice given.
Spinnaker
Yes Mact4 you are correct the nebuliser design has been altered to reduce emissions but we have no idea how effectively or whether for instance in-hospital patients will be given private rooms for the treatments. I would have thought Covid virus was rampant in the air in Covid wards anyway so have no idea of the impact.
Spinnaker
Hanoi
You make good points. SNG-001 is not going to be sprayed around anyone who has Covid. Even if the price was £200 that won't happen. I think the way forward in the longer term will be to link blood testing ideally using AI to identify those at risk of exacerbation of disease as soon as a positive test is made. This will include low interferon levels for any reason from age to genetic disposition. Initially though treatment would presumably be limited to either hospitalised or over 65 or over 50 with co-morbidities as per Trial remits.
Second point is that £250 per night is a total under representation of the all in cost of hospitalisation. If you just look at the PPI costs for a hospital structure and facilities for a fitted out hospital it is a magnitude or more higher than that. The £250 may be just the staffing cost for a standard ward. I wonder how much the temporary Nightingale hospitals will have cost per patient night over say 2 years.
However, the market will decide the pricing which will be variable andour discussion is not particularly helpful. For a start we have little idea of the all in costs of production which will depend on how the supply chain evolves and quantities etc. Also RM was absolutely correct to sidestep questioning about pricing in his interview. Whatever the price is, if Synairgen receive 50% EBIDTA or more it will be fantastic and depending on volume and longevity then a much lower figure would still be worthwhile for the company and its shareholders. If a licence agreement then this would again be a different matter and we may only receive a small royalty or similar.
A bit like Dragons Den, a small piece of a large pie may be more profitable than a large piece of a smaller pie.
I have one small concern just raised a couple of days ago when a the use of a nebuliser in a Melbourne quarantine hotel was blamed on spreading the infection. Hopefully this won't be an issue particularly at home but may give some negative press.
We all want this to get in general use as soon as possible for the health of the population and the company.
Spinnaker
Thanks for your responses Bojo and Nolu
I am am with you Nolu. I expected a pharma tie up at the end of the summer and this must be the way to go. I decided that the deal the BoD wanted must have been too punchy for the big pharmas. There is a possibility that a deal could be done at any time even before EUA but I think SNG will be on its own until P3 results. Still, that's only a few short months now. Just a shame the treatment was not out there for this winter . Depending on how things go I may shed a few before P3 results if no takeover or J/V or licence has yet happened.
Best
Spin
Hi Brazil
I did look to buy some MXT a few days ago but as you asay , they eweren't listed on HL or Barclays.
Yes, I have had a quick look at Kanabo. With all the Covid related mental health problems I should think medicinal cannabis will be a growth market.
Spinnaker
Good morning Fekir and 1509. Thanks for the welcome. You may be right, that could have been my first post here. I have however been looking in here occasionally for the past few months.
I am also in RMS but still in the red after buying in at something over 5p and averaging down to something over 3. That is not a company that I particularly want to be invested in for too long but will wait since there is a chance of a profit if they produce and sell a mask or two.
SNG is a different matter though. I am very happy to be invested there for the longer term both emotionally and in financial terms. I think it may punch above its weight in the fight against Covid and if so then its time is nigh.
You are right Fekir it has been a long road. SNG was one of my first post Covid share buys after I opened an account with HL and chucked some ISA money in my Barclays Smart Trader account together with NCYT back in April last year. I was spiked on both these, I think my first buys were at 70p and 370p. Since then it has been a journey on both, particularly SNG. Lots of ups and downs and waiting, taking a bit of profit from NCYT, topping up, averaging up and down. Making mistakes and having a few little wins, especially 20 July for SNG which was amazing.
Anyway I am still in both those and Greatland Gold is my other largest holding and with the recent 30% drop that looks very investable right now. I certainly haven't sold any yet but there won't be any dramatic movements down now since it is substantially re-risked.
ARB I bought at 14p and sold most in the 40s and 50s but have since re-bought and have a small position which I will keep for a bit. I haven't a clue about bitcoin but it would have been nice to have bought some a couple of years ago when a friend first suggested it to me.
I have learnt a lot but still have a lot to learn. I think I have too many stocks and my next move will be trying to get out of those that are the least likely to grow over the next couple of years. I also want to spend much less time faffing in front of the computer especially like now when it is sunny outside and I should be doing something useful.
Good luck to all
Spinnaker
I thought I would just mention this company here. Some posters here are already invested or at least are aware of it already.
It looks like a very exciting time is in prospect here since the mainstream media are just cottoning on to the reality that we really do need a suitable treatment for Covid that will assist in preventing the most severe illness and reduce take up of hospital beds. We don't appear to be told the average hospital stay but from the figures we do have it may be around 14 days.
There is an article in the Telegraph tomorrow which I haven't seen yet but apparently is most informative.
I have been invested there since April 2020 and it looks like there is a huge potential upside over the next two to three months with conclusion of three different trials for SNG-001.
Nolupus, I assume you are still invested in SNG aren't you?
Of course do your own research and good luck all.
Spinnaker
Just to confirm I sought to double up my shares in the share sale and received about 95% of my request so I therefore imputed that the PI section was only just oversubscribed. I can't now remember whether the II placing and PI section were separated.
This is a very exciting time at the moment.
GLA Spinnaker
Enrico. Enjoy it.
I had to respond since I have never heard anyone mention Clairette de Die before or since I had a bottle with my girlfriend in Die on a motorbike trip in 1976.
Enjoy it all.
Spinnaker
Great day today. I put a couple of limit orders in but the S P never dropped enough. You could also say I was just too late since I could have got in to top up this morning
I haven't re-watched the Kansas video but I'm pretty sure it was stated on there something approximating to "I would expect that as soon as P2 results are received and assessed and if positive, an application would be made for EUA and P3 trials would roll on" This is not a direct quote, just what I thought I heard. I also understood that EUA would not necessarily be delayed until after P3 completion.
I do assume any EUA would be for home use only but does anyone know if that would prevent the treatment being used in hospital. Maybe it would be limited by the disease progression but again that might be solely down to the doctor's judgement.
What is others understanding on these points?
Thanks
Spinnaker
Hi oil and marker, sorry I didn't see your posts until I had posted on the other Active-2 thread.
What do you think of my comments. Basically my point is that not all of the three treatments available on the trial would need to be started on the same date. We have already been told that other treatments may added.
Spinnaker
An interesting thread but the reason why we were not on Recovery is 'water under the bridge' at the moment. I agree with most that we are in a good place now although it is a crying shame that MAP hasn't been used to any extent or even at all and there are so many deaths and people on ventilators.
The phone number to sign up to Activ-2 was on the video from Kansas. Initially that implied to me that a suitable patient could sign up and be put on SNG-001 trial. However that isn't necessarily the case. If everything is not yet ready for SNG-001 to be supplied then the patient would just be put on one of the other two drug trials. I would expect it may not be the patient's sole choice which trial he would be put on although he could of course refuse any offered. Possibly part doctor's decision and part availability in location. One thing is that there could not be any delays due to the stringent requirement that patient should have been symptomatic for no more than seven days prior to first treatment.
I therefore do expect an RNS on first treatment as advised.
Exciting times here
Best to all
Spinnaker