Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Thanks Deanok
Obviously a computer glitch. I think it relates to the SP a week or so ago and the rise on that day. Just stuck there.
Best wishes.
Spinnaker
Has anyone any idea why Vox is showing WSBN up 14% at 14p?
Thanks
Spinnaker
Stu
Surely RM had no inside knowledge as to the date Activ-2 results would be revealed. There are many factors that would affect the timing including the unknowns of patient take-up, infection rate, testing speed status and importantly the number of drug products on Activ-2 at the time. All these drugs would be in competition with SNG001 for the limited number of patients recruited. Until we have been informed that the target number have been recruited, any estimate of date for results can only be an informed guess.
Spinnaker
Matml. Thanks for that link. I haven't read it all but it sounds as though SNG001 may be even more effective via nasal inhalation rather than through the mouth.
I have rather assumed that at present the nebuliser used gives access to the lungs through the mouth to trachea rather than the nasal passages. That may not be correct though. Can anyone confirm? Also, if it is through the mouth can a patient still exhale through the nose, thus allowing some interferon to access nasal mucosa?
I am interested if anyone has knowledge on this topic.
Many thanks
Spinnaker
Scinv
Thanks for your response. I didn't say that all I saw was arrogance in your posts at all.
I too have thought for ages that all patients should be screened on first testing positive for things like genetic mutation causing poor interferon production and auto antibodies to INFs.
We aren't there yet but our trials may encourage progress along that route and better match treatment to individual frailties.
Spinnaker
I think this is an interesting thread and do respect Scinv's postings. Having said that they can be difficult to follow and, Scinv, you do sometimes adopt a tone that infers that everybody whodoesn't see the problems as clearly as you is, by definition, a moron. This tone can sometimes alienate other board posters and holders.
I would like to ask you a question having read all the posts. I understand your conclusion that selecting only people with low interferon levels or with autoantibodies to interferons would give greater confidence levels of a statistically relevant outcome for every trial. My query is, do we know whether the P2 at home trial or the P3 international is testing patients for these adverse signs before dosing? It seems to me that if we have this information it would be helpful. However I also understand that even if we have these figures, those numbers may be 10% or less of the total trial numbers and therefore reduce the statistical significance of the results for that specific cohort .
Secondly you seem to think that the Activ-2 trial will not only definitely test for personal defects prior to inclusion but even, on the P3 element select trial participants on this basis. The protocol hasn't been issued for P3 yet so we will have to see but I assume your thinking is that the Activ-2 P2 results will show that recipients with the defects noted will respond more favourably to SNG treatment than others and therefore the trial organisers will try and select those specific defective patients for our treatment based on these criteria. (Ie presence of auto antibodies against INF and /or low INF levels.
Is that correct?
Many thanks
Spinnaker
Sorry; forgot the link. Courtesy of Iveyspivey on another BB.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/new-covid-variant-detected-at-texas-am-lab-shows-signs-of-antibody-resistance-and-more-severe-illness-in-young-people.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619106327
There are loads of them around now all over the world. Not good news for the economies or lives. Synairgen 1 is needed asap.
Talking of that, I have been incensed that we have allowed tens of thousands of people to come into Heathrow from Delhi for the last three months, just like the flights from Wuhan in Jan to March 2020. Waiting for proof of VOR before taking action is like waiting for proof that smoking causes cancer or asbestos causes asbestosis. Lots more people die in the meantime!
Spinnaker
F&V, Doc and Seaboy, ScInv etc. Thanks and Interesting responses.
Yes of course R&D etc needs to be reflected in pricing but the percentage of sales price that repays the risk and R&D is very much a factor of volume x longevity of sales and of course pricing affects the volume so there are various ways to skin a cat. I am sure there are pricing conventions amongst drug companies but I am just looking at it from a logical point of view. If say we had a contribution towards costs of £200 per treatment out of the sale price and sold 100,000 treatments per annum that would repay the say £200m (£100m doubled for risk) development costs in 10 years but if we sold 100,000 treatments per month (RM's 2021 target) all £200m would be recouped in less than one year. I certainly hope that the UK won't have that many patients meeting high risk criteria this year. USA and India probably will though.
Our drug, if approved will hopefully not have a short life expectancy since it's use for high risk patients will be ongoing in respect of various respiratory viral infections subject to further successful trials.
Very interesting list of average development costs per drug F&V. It is clear from that, that any approved drug that is widely required will give a value of £2b plus to the company. So much better value to buy the company or rights without all that time and risk capital.
Best Wishes to all.
Spinnaker
Thanks Seaboy for your great work. There are a few others in the frame including the AZ and GSK and Camostat in the Activ-2 with us.
I agree with you Doc that the level of competition, say, if and when we are able to make an application for EUA may well affect the likely pricing. Does anyone know if a proposed pricing menu would need to be given as part of the EUA application? If not that would mean we could keep powder dry for a bit longer but the lack of cost information would certainly discourage Horby and UK govt. from making any early approaches for pre-orders. I guess Boris is hoping to get something sub £500 from the new anti-viral pill campaign and ideally sub £10 like Ivermectin. The time frame laid down by Boris and the expected cost limits on NHS procurement of two drugs for standard of care mean that these have to be repurposed drugs or if new drugs, already well down the road in trials as is SNG001.
I have no idea of the potential pricing of Camostat for instance but pills are usually at the cheaper end of the spectrum and take little time or set up costs to administer.. New drugs will always be more expensive than repurposed drugs though particularly if out of patent and generic. The initiative may come to nought of course. There are circumstances where £2000 would be a very good deal (if it prevented a patient needing hospitalisation and oxygen and long Covid) but this is fairly difficult to target currently. At present the NHS doesn't seem to be set up with simple procedures, ie A.I. programmed blood tests to determine markers for severe disease progression such as low interferon levels and/or genetic disposition as soon as a positive test has been made. I think we are not expecting SNG to become widespread standard treatment without such testing. I.E. we are thinking along the lines of 'Standard of Care' for obviously high risk patients only ( eg very old with co-morbidities) as the best case scenario, this year at least.
I would expect with large orders the company could make adequate margin and profits at a price to UK govt. somewhere between £400 and sub £1,000 per treatment at a guess. At these price levels even if only one out of four were saved from hospitalisation it would seem a good deal to me for UK plc.
All the best
Spinnaker
I haven't a clue what that means but it's stated in the 19 April RNS.
It doesn't sound very scientific and I really don't know why I invested in this company, now regretting it despite buying the masks.
Good luck all.
Spinnaker
Thanks for that Agent B. I did see it when it was published on 10 March but I don't know if the EUA application has been made for VIR 7831 . It will be all over the press if approved so I don't think that has happened yet.
The ICE trial of VIR 7831 is the treatment that GSK are appliying for EUA. This is a 14 day I/V programme so not as accessible as SNG001. Trials are ongoing for I/M injection treatment with the same drug which mode of treatment would be more comparable to SNG.
Camostat tablets are on Activ-2 and would certainly be a popular political option if trials are good.
The big plus for an inhaled treatment, as many posters have said is that the dosages required should be less as it is targeted to the lungs and therefore concerns of unwanted side effects should be less. In principle targeted techniques are increasingly preferred in cancer etc as also stated on another thread.
Still looking good for us despite the longer than hoped for time frames.
Good luck all. Spinnaker
I agree with Poised. It is a very good question; whether a false positive could be repeatedly be generated by the same person even when they weren't infected. In any event with two positive results I wouldn't want them mixing in the community. From a public health perspective the incidence of false negatives is surely more concerning for people arriving in the country. A second test after 5 days carried out by a health professional should be mandatory since they could have become infected on the plane or in the airport.
Also, I agree with jdt1990 that a negative PCR test 72 hours before flying is not adequate. Michael Mina's graphs show infectivity within 48 hours of infection.
If we are going to allow increased plane travel it will also be important from the track and trace point of view that airports do not allow mixing of passengers from different inbound flights which will be a serious management issue to resolve and does not seem to have been attempted as yet.
Looking good for Avacta though. Very positive vibes.
Spinnaker
I must say, looking at the link below I find it beyond amazing that the govt. seems to be waiting until the Indian strain is proved to be a 'Variant of Concern' before stopping flights from Delhi etc. It is totally nuts. The cost of any potential variant evading our vaccines would be huge both economically and from a public health viewpoint. We should be doing it the other way round. Shoot first and ask questions later. As an island we are able to protect our borders far better than most countries and should have done so previously and should do so now.
Spinnaker
Thanks for reminding us about that Prion.
Having a quick look for the second time what really hits me is they are forecasting a compound annual growth rate over the next few years of just 3.5% from the 2020 sales. This is despite mentioning Synairgen hospital trial. It would appear therefore that they are not assuming any sales for our drug against Covid. It may be that the company protocol does not allow any assumptions in respect of drugs that are not approved at the time of estimate. The figures given are relating to I/V and I/M treatment for Mutliple Sclerosis.
In any event I don't think the figures give any particular insight regarding the potential sales of an inhaled version of Interferon Beta 1a either as anti Covid treatment or a general respiratory anti-viral.
There are a lot of hoops still left to jump through but I am pleased that the SP has held up pretty well and seems less volatile at present.
Best to all
Spinnaker
Thanks Hank and F&V
Significant discussions or agreements re backing surely should be RNS'd. We have had RNSs stating production agreements are being progressed but that is all. Confidential discussions ongoing shouldn't need RNSing of course.
On pricing , Hank, the example of £50 for a nebuliser may well be £50 at present but if we produce 100,000 treatments and therefore need 100,000 nebulisers every month then I am confident we could either find a way of sterilising the used units or agree a reduced price with the current manufacturer or approach a different manufacturer. It may be that this latter would require some limited further trialing though. Similarly volume and longevity of production will inform costs of the vials.
The production for Covid-19, its variants and future respiratory viruses is potentially a market that would be orders of magnitude larger than the original asthma and COPD exacerbation target intentions. We can't expect the first years worth of purchases by customers to pay for all the 15 years research costs assuming we have a product which was originally developed for for a rather more niche although still important purpose.
Indeed the outcome of the 'At home' arm of the UK trial together with the US Activ-2 may well determine the overall market size for the future. It could be huge but if it is then downward pricing pressures could increase fairly quickly particularly since Interferons cannot be protected by IP. Recent and current panic spending will not last; see NCYT as an example.
If we get the positive results from all the trials that we expect I concur with F&V and Hank that there will be a few suitors and it will most probably then be in everyone's interest for J/V or J/Vs or takeover. The only worry is that a takeover is not a swift option and may delay optimum roll-out. The involvement of a large Pharma or Pharmas will reduce costs of production and enable faster production no doubt which would potentially increase the market size.
Spinnaker
My long post continued.
A lower price could be negotiated with the government for a long term contract and of course production could be ramped up to and above RM suggestion of I think 100,000 plus per month. I expect us to be able to sell multi-nationally quite readily once authorisation is approved.
Sorry for my ramblings but I am interested in what everybody else thinks on this topic. If we can bring down the price to a few hundred pounds then there is scope for tens of thousands of sales to the general public. Me for one.
Good luck all
Spinnaker