George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
That is a very good point Prion.
I too am rather concerned that the company appears to have not yet undertaken 'in vitro' studies of SNG001 on the Delta variant since this is by far the most prevalent variant in the UK at least right now and is likely to become so in Europe and other countries. RM should have done this by now.
Another concern is that the recently highlighted by RM, prime indicator, 'breathlessness', of suitability for treatment with SNG001 may already be out of date and not so relevant for the Delta and perhaps future variants. I am not up to date on whether the P3 trial and or the Active 2 trial are actually now using breathlessness indicator to select trial participants. Can anyone tell me?
I must admit that I initially thought that the simplicity of a breathlessness diagnosis as a precursor to treatment/trial inclusion was brilliant but am now not so certain that this will prove to be an adequate sole trigger for the box tick.
It is clear that most LTHs are holding strong since the SP has not been hit as much as other Covid related stocks such as NCYT, ABDX, AVCT etc. The current increasing infection rate and hospitalisation rate shows that early treatment options will remain vital in concert with vaccination. SNG001 will hopefully play a full part just as soon as we get some positive news from the trials.
Best to all. Spinnaker
Doc you are absolutely right. I don't know who the 11.7% comprises but probably quite a few party stalwarts, not necessarily those most at risk.
The other thing is, I am not sure there is the political will or money to lock down hard again in Russia. Probably similar to here in that respect.
Spin
Doc, well, it will be interesting to compare figures between UK and Russia. Russia currently has 50% higher number of daily cases than UK and increasing exponentially like us but also over double the population so a lower stated infection rate. With the dramatically different vaccination rates the comparison is likely to be stark. Obviously we can't directly compare Russia and UK reporting levels or basis of reporting but the figures will nevertheless be indicative. I expect a very serious situation there in the next month or two.
Very sad we have no ratified treatment yet.
Spin
HOCl is Hypochlorous acid.
HOCl is the scientific formula for hypochlorous acid, a weak acid similar to that of a mild citrus juice. HOCl is made naturally by white blood cells in all mammals for healing and protection. HOCl is a powerful oxidant that is effective against invading bacteria, fungi, and viruses.
Spinnaker
Thanks Helen for the link.
That is one of the few potentially virus agnostic pill contenders apparently out.
I was interested to see that Ivermectin has now been included in Activ-6 Phase 3 but with 15,000 patient trial and a start date of June 15 2021 and an estimated completion date of December 2022. Does that seem like overkill to anyone else? Why would you need 15,000 trial participants on a repurposed drug with good safety record except perhaps to chuck it into the long grass?
I know we have criticised our establishment for lack of transparency but Activ does not appear to have given results or reasons for discontinuation or progression of some drugs in the trials.
Looking forward to next week. Hopefully news soon for Synairgen.
Spinnaker
There is some info on age related to genotyping.
The below (page 44) is easy to understand on vaccine effectiveness.
'SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
44
Monitoring of vaccine effectiveness
Analysis of routine testing data up to the 11 June 2021, linked to sequencing and S-gene
target status has been used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic
disease using a test negative case control design. Methods and detailed results are
available in Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Delta variant. After a single
dose there was an 18% absolute reduction in vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic
disease with Delta compared to Alpha, but only a modest reduction in vaccine
effectiveness after 2 doses (Table 10).
Table 10. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease for Alpha and Delta
variants
Vaccination status Vaccine Effectiveness (%)
Alpha Delta
Dose 1 49 (46 to 52) 31 (25 to 36)
Dose 2 88 (85 to 90) 80 (77 to 82)
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation was estimated by evaluating hospitalisation
rates via emergency care among symptomatic confirmed cases using survival analysis
(Stowe et al., 2021 pre-print). This analyses used available data from linkage of
symptomatic cases, 12 April to the 4 June 2021. Hazard ratios for hospitalisation are
combined with odds ratios against symptomatic disease from the test negative case
control analysis described above to estimate vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation.
Methods and detailed results are available in Stowe et al., 2021. Similar vaccine
effectiveness against hospitalisation was seen with the Alpha and Delta variants
(Table 11).
Table 11. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for Alpha and Delta variants
Vaccination status Vaccine Effectiveness (%)
Alpha Delta
Dose 1 78 (65 to 86) 75 (57 to 85)
Dose 2 92 (78 to 97) 94 (85 to 98)'
Spinnaker
It is a genuine government advice note. However I am not a statistician and analysis is not that straightforward. I didn't see anything relating to age or co-morbidities but may have missed it.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/994839/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf
Spinnaker
Crazy
I thought that video was pretty hard hitting. Thank you for posting.
The main points made are:-
1) Doctors have generally been encouraged by official advice from multiple sources not to use their best judgement to treat home patients and to offer no treatment or protocols and Peter McCullough thinks there are multiple treatments that in combination would have had a major effect on hospitalisations and deaths.
2) None of the official regulators in the US or the WHO have come up with any protocol to treat patients before hospitalisation just lots of dont's.
3) There has been a concerted effort to facilitate vaccines even extending to removing the minimum 2 year monitoring for trials and allowing use on pregnant women despite no trial data but the opposite for any drugs that may be administered at home to reduce hospitalisation and death.
I wouldn't describe myself as a conspiracy theorist but I am very concerned about 'groupthink. and the way in which this has impacted on the poor management of the pandemic in the UK and many other countries.
If you haven't seen this video it is equally shocking.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=tess+lawrie+ivermectin&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DD2ju5v4TAaQ
Best to all. Hoping for a solid week.
Spinnaker
My thinking is the amazing USP this drug has is that it encourages our own immune system to wake up when it is dozing or compromised. It has specific advantages with Covid but unlike anti-virals has been shown to be effective even after 7-10 days of disease progression. Not only this but as far as I understand the 'in vitro' studies published there is persuasive science that it would work as a 'near term' prophylactic. We should understand however that it will not be used for this purpose except in exceptional circumstances for the next few years, probably until nuanced targeting is available and further trials have completed.
However, and I think this is the very mature elephant in the room, it will work against influenza which has been the major reason our hospitals have been so full during most winters over many years. It may be a relatively expensive treatment but not as expensive as building another 50 hospitals and training and employing thousands more doctors, nurses and ancillary hospital workers.
Once this life saving product is being widely used for Covid patients with breathing difficulties and has had a chance to show efficacy on a wide scale I expect the pressure for expansion of use in the NHS and elsewhere for flu patients will be huge. In some countries, maybe not the UK, it will be used on symptomatic patients even before they have had positive test results for Covid and this could increase the pressure for wider use even before formal P3 trials.
We do need the help of one or more international pharmas to reach full potential for Synairgen 1 but this could still be by means of regional J/Vs rather than takeover and like others I am sure discussions are ongoing.
As you can tell I am becoming increasingly bullish that our treatment can indeed save lives hopefully in 2021 but certainly for many years in the future. The whole thrust of medicine in the future will be to encourage, catalyse and optimise all elements of the natural human immune system. This will include diet, exercise, clean water and air and interventions in the form of exogenous interferons and other messengers which prove to be vital in the innate immune system. This is a better route to good health than targeting the adaptive immune system since the innate immune system, as its name implies is non-specific or 'agnostic' to the life threat.
You can see I am increasingly bullish despite the fact that on the investment front I could have bought all my shares now and not had the excitement and anguish of the last fourteen months.
Best of luck to all Synairgen supporters.
Spinnaker
Thanks for these posts.
I invested in SKIN and MW a bit over a year ago thinking rather naively that testing sewage outlets would be a prime testing route during 2020. I am pleased that progress is slowly being made both nationally and by the company.
I picked up in the interview the point about replacing the sensor plates perhaps every four hours or after a certain amount of virus particles had been captured. This is going to be expensive. The situation reminds me of the speed camera example where due to the cost and level of labour required to replace physical film in cameras, many were left for weeks or months with no film.
I realise that there is a robotic method of replacing the plates remotely but there wasn't any information given regarding the likely frequency of physical visits to site. The strength of the system seems therefore to be particularly weighted to first detection in an area without any or significant levels of existing virus and could possibly be overloaded with data once that community transmission was significant.
Is this correct?
Many thanks
Spinnaker
I found the repeated sentence in the last two RNSs quite odd. 'From 09.04 RNS "the Company has taken legal advice and believes it has strong grounds to assert its contractual rights,"'
Of course every company has strong grounds to assert contractual rights. It is a tautologous statement. Contractual rights are legal rights. There is no defence against a legal right.
It definitely seems code for 'the government are at fault for not paying their dues' If there was a legal argument due to lack of clarity of the contract or purported failure of Novacyte to adhere to their contractual obligations I feel that the wording of the RNSs would have been different. If there is more to the dispute the BoD should be specific in the next RNS.
Well down but not yet out. Good luck all.
Spinnaker
As others have posted, the government have not been paying all their bills in a timely manner.
Yes. Well done Mike.
Start of trial 27 April in all 11 sites. Target is 87 patients to be recruited for Spain. Spain currently has about two or three times the infection rate of the UK so I would hope they would manage that in two or three months. Say one trialist per week per hospital.
Take-up is subject to interest by the doctors at each hospital and also the number of competing trial products. Also of course hospitalisation rates which will currently be reducing in line with infection rate.
Best to all
Spinnaker
Geovanni Thanks for that link.
A bit concerning was the paragraph stating that post peak viral infection treatment with inhaled interferon carried more risk. Although that was a worry SNG had pre P2 trial that concern wasn't borne out by the SNG P2 20 July results and certainly the amendments to the home arm protocol and RMs last couple of interviews imply that SNG have become increasingly relaxed about a longer delay between infection onset and treatment. In fact, I doubt if very many of the triallists so far have been first dosed in less than 7 days after infection.
Interesting that this is the second paper on the BB today that indicates the earlier the interferon dosing the better the likely outcome. Accurate, fast POC testing and biomarkers for likelihood of progression to severe disease will be important to correctly target most at risk individuals and optimum treatment window for our treatment. I expect both these techniques will prove invaluable in the future. I regard the 'breathing difficulty' criterion to be a rough and ready measure that will not pick up patients very early but probably the best we can do at present before more nuanced and earlier identification of the patients most likely to benefit will be available. It isn't totally objective but the good thing is that it is an easy diagnosis to make and can be readily self-diagnosed.
I am hopeful that we are bumping along the bottom now in terms of share price and future news is likely to be positive for Synairgen.
Best to all
Spinnaker
I have emailed Clinigen to ask them to confirm that this old news from France is part of the international MAP that they are co-ordinating. I also asked if they could give any information on numbers treated under MAP in any/all countries. I have asked questions before and nothing was forthcoming and resulted in a circular journey to Synairgen and sent back to Clinigen.
It certainly looks to me that this is just is all part of the MAP. However I find it pretty annoying that no effort has been made to inform shareholders of the progress of MAP.
I am now beginning to think that due to the costs of initial funding of the supply of treatment which may be eventually refunded in some instances (perhaps coupled with limited availability) and the ongoing cost of data collection and provision post treatment, Synairgen have merely used MAP as a box tick and have not actively encouraged take-up. Certainly Clinigen have informed me that they are not able to carry out anything that may be considered marketing or promotion. There is though, a big difference between marketing and facilitating access to treatment for any doctor that may enquire on behalf of a patient. I am sure that if there had been any significant take-up we would have been told since it would be price sensitive information.
Best to all
Spinnaker