Member Info for spero

sorry, the first one was last updated 2012

A little annoying that Rambler have two Facebook profiles
https://www.facebook.com/ramblermines/ - last updated 2021, but containing some very familiar photos.
https://www.facebook.com/rambler.mines.92 - last updated a few hours ago with on-site photos of the new office pods.
Sort it out Rambler

+blue_square, I wrote that in the context of there being very low levels of investment in exploration & discovery of new deposits.

Also, the time from discovery of a mineral deposit to an actual producing mine is ages. It could be 10 years.
See the 'Lassonde Curve' (lifecycle of a mineral discovery)
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/mining-life-cycle.jpg

This is an incredibly inopportune squeeze on supply, just as the world's need for it grows exponentially. Good news for investors in producing copper mines. It does however sound terrible for the world's prospects of dealing with global warming. The silver lining for the planet is that copper is incredibly recyclable. Recycled copper ia 100% as good as new copper (not the case for lots of other recyclable materials).

The bit we're focusing on is
* really low levels of discovery of new copper deposits over the last decade
* when explorers do discover it, it will take many years for it to contribute to global supply
* demand is high and growing rapidly.

DYOR, but IMHO: Buy and hold. Average down where possible. Ignore the noise.

$4.54/lb (not tonne!)

After a day of China selling 30k tonnes of Copper to control the price, copper is still looking strong at $4.54/tonne

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

Everything aligning for a Copper super(mega)cycle. A perfect storm, or perhaps a perfect drought would be a better description.

This graph shows annual copper discoveries for the last 30 years
https://e7j3v5v7.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Pic-3.jpg
Not much in the pipeline!

Exploration budgets have been low because copper price has been low. From discovery to producing takes 6 to 7 years (with lots of rounds of financing).

If only we could find a company, that is already producing, in a safe jurisdiction, with a turnaround specialist CEO at the helm, with an incentivised/invested board (ambitions aligned with shareholders), that has exceptionally high grades of copper, that only needs to return to previously achieved levels of production to start making massive profits AND that will do this within a few months. Ideally that company would also be priced less than the sum total of its assets. Now where could we find a company like that??? :)

It will be interesting to see how this phase of their attempt to control commodity prices plays out. The world knows they are selling 30000 tonnes of Copper tomorrow (less than analysts expected), but the copper price has held up well regardless.
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rises-as-china-decides-to-release-less-reserve-than-expected/

There's an interesting article, linked in this tweet, describing how China attempted to manipulate the market a few years ago
https://twitter.com/nedwardo44/status/1401657574685130752

I think they'll find they can't influence the price in the same way they could when they were the main consumer (industrialisation catch-up and urbanisation). Copper is in short supply and the whole world needs it for electrification. The green economy revolution is core to the multi-trillion dollar economic stimulus packages announced across the world.

They're going to regret selling down their reserves, but they can buy more from Rambler mid-Q4, once we've released the anchor of the £3 hedge ... and we're producing from six stopes instead of the current two. 22 weeks until 2022. This will be a very different share by then!

We're already producing Malvern. We're tied into a hedge (selling our copper below current market) value until early Q4, but we're 2/3 of the way through Q3. Two mines stopes expended to SIX within the next four or five months.

great news. Thanks Broker1

Read a report from someone who attended the Zoom investor call that RMM expect the hedge will be cleared early Q4. Did anyone here attend and can confirm this?

@monkeyD, they did address stopes yesterday:
"Risk in this context relates to the optionality around mining locations which has been limited to just one through most of this year. This will be mitigated with mine development providing access to multiple stoping locations by the end of 2021. The mine development contract that has commenced is an important part of this mitigation."

is the grade lower because they had to churn through stope collapse material?

"Production ramp-up will occur in a planned fashion over Q3 and Q4 with the target of full utilization of the processing plant by end of year 2021.". I think 'full utilization' here must mean they are still on-track to hit the 1350 tpd production targets by year end.

They've reduced their previously announced drilling target figures, but commented: "The reduction from previous drilling meters targeted for the year is a result of the contractors difficulty in staffing the second drill rig which is now resolved"

Some good staff acquisition / retention initiatives - training, retirement contributions, on-site residential facilities for contractors & non-locals.

From the list of H1 achievements, they have clearly been very busy getting everything upgraded / modernised / ready for multiple stopes & 1350+ tpd.

Someone was wondering if West Face have been selling down the 8.1 million shares they were issued on the 14th July.

The page says that, as of today, West Face have 8.1million shares (still).
https://www.ramblermines.com/aim26-securities.php

I like the sound of West Face and hope they hold on to all of their shares long term. They will be a great shareholder advocate / ally.

Strange that lse.co.uk aren't showing it yet
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RMM/holding-s-in-company/15066523?showDisclaimer=true

FTSE AIM all share index is down 6-7% since early July. RMM are down roughly 8-9% in the same period. Hardly a major deviation from the whole market. Valuations are dropping across the board because lots of people/funds are taking money out of all stocks (covid variant concerns) and putting their money into bonds and other safe harbours (e.g. cash/gold).

This market downturn is the perfect opportunity for derampers to imply they know about the end of capitalism (without providing details ).

Just relax, put RMM back in the bottom drawer, remember your reasons for investing and enjoy the summer.

GTMUFO - Copper price in 2019 and 2020 was roughly $2.50/lb. Barely high enough to make profit.
In 2021, the avg is over $4 and set to climb long term (super cycle / green economy revolution etc) .

Both of those historical RNS show that production of 1250 and 1350 metric tonnes per day have already been achieved. All Rambler have to do is get back to those production levels at this copper price to make a fortune.

Look back in time for a view on possible mine performance, then use that to look forward in time for a view on potentially very large profit.

Here it is, loading up at Goodyear's Cover
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-56.099/centery:49.429/zoom:16
https://www.ramblermines.com/goodyears-cove.php

+theregulator
Risk here is asymmetric. The company is currently priced as failing despite being well financed and well into a turnaround. CEO has turnaround experience and is incentivised / invested. The copper environment is poised for once-in-a-lifetime growth. Rambler is about as low risk (not no-risk) / high reward as I've ever seen, therefore I'm happy to invest large and wait. I keep a smaller amount for faster turnover investments.

£2.5k buy has been pending on an NT for over 20 mins.
Hard to buy.