Member Info for sparky333

Yep YU have reached the tipping point on turnover where every £100 produces far more profit and this is where cash and profit start to go into orbit.

This is what frustrates me the most because after this year is when the real acceleration kicks in I was forecasting 90 to 100m in H1 this year and they smash hell out of so we are already track 2023/24 number

Which are turnover £257m

Eps 29p and cash at £12m

Now they could even hit 2024/25 number this year which is

Turnover £294m
EPS 43p
Cash 26m

I actually think it will sit between the two.

We are an illiquid stock which is blessing and a curse.

We have fallen 50p since trading up high of the day on a little over 200k shares of which say worse case 125k are sells

That is less than 200k in cash and it has knock around £8m of the market cap, it is PIs bored, worried, need cash etc and no buyers around at all to soak it up.

It is reaching a point of pure silliness as the market does tend to swing to far the upside and the downside but eventually it will swing back and very aggressively if volume is present.

I have seen YU go up 300% in a matter of weeks, done it before and will do it again 100p to 380p. This time we are approaching that valuation and the business is 3 times the size and profitable and not 1p of debt

I would also add this is the 4th world crisis in the last 2 years.

1. Covid 19 - managed it very well
2. Energy crisis - 30 companies folded YU managed it well and took over the books of 4 rivals from OFGEm
3. War - YU are risk averse and fully back to back hedged
4. Now a recession and inflation - not stopping the business this far and actually thriving so why does anyone think they cannot manage this one and potential bad debt.

Far to many people jumping to silly conclusions as no eveidence at all bad debt is rampant and also bare in mind YU have a very diverse client portfolio

Bad debt is a real threat to domestic as the costs that are being forecast or just terrible for families and low income house holds and pensioners.

Business is a different beast, they do not pay they get cut off no protection like domestic. They get cut off business fails, it’s the last thing a business will not pay

What is it with bad debt and YU specifically they announced not 3 weeks ago business is booming and FY will be the same, they know full well the bad debt risk and account accordingly.

It if starts to worsen and has an impact on the companies forecasts they have to profit warn. So in 3 weeks do you think the company is now swamped with bad debt but others in the sector are not ?

Well market cap is now 26m and falling.

PE ratio is 6 cash forecast to go up to £9m year end from 7 and I expect this will be higher as turnover is way ahead of expectations.

Any material change in the business has to be reported to the market ergo no material change therefore no informaing the market.

This is so like the covid 19 days, lockdown no one using energy YU will be bankrupt etc.

Polar opposite business is never better so sell all you want at these ridiculos levels because the tide will change and when it does it will be to late as she will move very fast

Totally agree we are getting hit with the bad press in the sector and YU is far more sensitive to this.

People cannot seems to understand there are huge differences between domestic and business

This has been discussed to death someone has reported wrong info YU have never paid anywhere like that previously and figures have been provided. Yes as turnover increases payment size goes up but not several fold.

Cash year end is forecast to be up over 40% to to 9m and no doubt will be a lot higher. Next summer will be over 20 to 25m it’s all about timing of cash moving in and out

All this talk of massive bad debts is premature especially for business as the first thing business will do is reduce staff. Labour market is strong when that starts to reduce then companies are starting to feel pain.

Last thing they will do is not pay for energy because they get cut off they are not protected as well as domestic so people selling on bad debt nerves at this level are nuts in my mind

Yep only CFO and OFGEM will know the figure until either annual report or ROC report in 2023.

It is actually irrelevant to be honest because it is already accounted for and year cash will be £3m or more higher than last year we have already been told as much.

So no matter how you cut it cash will rise by 40% or more.

The reason I say more is because turnover will be far higher than current estimates of 215m more like 275 ish is my estimate. Therefore cash will be way above the forecast.

Also YU PR is truly aweful 3 BOD targets on PR in the annual report and yet they have gone radio silent.

This is why liberum brought in coupled with talachan so I will give them one more chance to set this right. As BK has so much skin in the game it makes no sense and also 2023 share options are very much at risk now because even if we come out will Stella H1 numbers and FY we are along way from the 250p target 50% tranche never mind the 100% at 650p SP.

Huge own goal especially as the sentiment is terrible against the sector as people have no idea how the energy market works.

Difficult time and MC at £28m is just insane and less than pre Covid and an 18 month low and not many buyers being tempted either.

Really depressing actually

Nice Post , but why specific to YU ? Domestic is a far bigger concern but CNA , TEP at multi year highs and good energy holding firm.

This is YU specific and we are now far below the Covid low when people concerned about YU selling no energy, you just can’t win here regardless.

Good well run company and treated like this by investors when not a sniff of bad news

Let’s hope so , getting a little bit frustrated now being back to where we were pre Covid, yet twice the size and profitable

When scare mongering like that put it in perspective first please

Actually I was wrong and it is 5.7m https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06152/SN06152.pdf

So less than 0.01% went bust

Yu have 26,000 customers v around 3m in the UK

Silence is deafening when the SP is now at a 18 month low and falling

Down again on low volume and MC now 28m, just do. To get it when the company hasn’t put a foot wrong.

Interesting, just read it myself.

Just what does this company have to do ? Words escape me.

Just were is the bad news to warrant this ?

Hi,

I think the company understand this as 3 business objectives for 2022 which they have failed to address, I get it as workload is high in driving the business forward, when I questioned this talchan come back very quickly pointing out Liberum appointment.

I personally expect fireworks post H1 numbers sept