Running some numbers - Intersting11 Apr 2020 09:49
So after that rather bland RNS and the slide in the SP I have tried to run some numbers on the impact of COVID 19 based on what we know. Please take with a pinching of salt and add anything you might think useful or disagree with also I have used rounded figures for easy.
So what do we know ?
1. Turnover for 2019 was 110M so lets use that figure
2. Spring will I expect will have less turnover that Sept to Feb anyways but I have just used a standard spread over the year.
3. We know the impact spread is 43% High, 41% medium and 16% low
so lets get into it
110m so 300K per month turnover
lets split that turnover into the Risk graded impact areas and we get
130K - High
120K - Medium
50K - Low
Lets risk grade financial the impact
High - 20%
Medium - 60%
Low - 100%
I have been really hard on high because even when totally shut down you have the standard charge and some usage regardless
so impacted turnover
High 25K
Medium 75k
Low 50K
total 150K so a 50% hit to revenue during Lockdown sounds a lot but we must consider this is low usage period anyway and also how does that fit when annualised.
Lockdown was the 23rd March so 20 days as of today so to date a 3M revenue hit which is 2.9% of the annual.
so lets get nasty now and the lockdown is until the 1st June which is possible , but I personally think a phase opening up will occur in may with low affected area's opened but the big cities locked until June or even later if the spread isn't contained.
so revenue hit if lock down is june that's 70days so 70x 150K = 10M hit to revenue which is 9% hit.
This would again actually be less as March, April , May and June are low energy use months on lights, heating etc.
SO we could be looking at at 10% hit to revenue if complete lockdown went onto JUne - Actually not to bad when 90% of companies in the UK will have no revenue also
YU has 17M in Cash , Can defer VAT, Can loan money form the government , all companies can do this so Bad debts is a threat but can be managed.
Thoughts great appreciated on my very simple maths which is IMHO the worse case as we all know turnover would be lower anyway during spring and summer but without knowing the metrics hard to guess, but if I had to guess I would reckon revenue with be 30-40% lower in the spring and summer anyway. No heating, Not as much Lighting required on etc
T
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