Member Info for SpadesAspade

HaHa TT, that will be us trying to get our profits through the bank door.

antigua, imo NCM will spin this to their shareholders that they have just purchased the 5% for an absolute steal, even though they offered significantly less to GGP for it.

They will make it sound like the next best thing to sliced bread.

It’s just a matter of time before they get back to talking about Havieron in a very very positive light.

They have now got what they wanted albeit at a premium to what they wanted to pay for it, but got it non the less.

Onwards and upwards now. I think what Shaun and the team have done by making them pay more, will be a shot across the bows to the NCM management team, by letting them know in no uncertain terms that GGP are no pushovers.

If they want to purchase the remaining 25%, thy will know they won’t get it for a pittance, as GGP seem to know all the rules in the book, including some unwritten ones.

If Gervaise would of still been in charge then god help us.
His quote of moving on as soon as this hit $1B is all we needed to know about the man.

Hey Hobbhead, until NCM state that it is in commercial quantities GGP don’t have to release anything.

Ask yourself this.

Who is in charge of the development of the mine NCM or GGP ?

It’s very difficult to find out now Lyndon, since Ortex have masked over the figures on screen.
Using a VPN, you could see daily what the position was, but for the last month they have found a way to masks the figures unless you are a subscriber.
I can’t remember which member here subscribes to the platform, but he does post the info quite frequently.
I’m sure the last time I saw the figures, it was still around the 68 million mark.

Freddie, the reasons why so many were saying hundreds of millions, me included, was at the time the news broke, we were unaware of the constraints of the JVA.

Like a lot of folk, I’d based my valuation on a 10 million ounce mine. Not on a fraction of a fraction of a mine, and certainly not up to a date of December 21.

My calculation was as follows.

10M Oz’s at $1000 per Oz profit = $10B

$10B divide by 20 (5%) = $500M

$500M minus 66% discount (gold in ground price) = $170M

And that figure of $170M was not including any further Oz’s that most likely will be proven over time.

I make no apology for my fag packet guesstimate as I like everyone else were not privy to the terms of the agreement.

Yes it’s easy for others in hindsight, to criticise, but most of them never put their heads above the parapet to be shot down. They just hide behind their keyboards and say “Told you so”.

I never see you making any calculations ever.
My calculations were done in good faith, not to mislead others, but to try and get a handle on what others were thinking.

Hope that explains my perspective at the time.

Everyonesawinner, I believe that is what you call “An old wives tale”.
Of course they have to declare.
If you are of a UK company or person anything over 3%.
If you are a foreign company or person then it is 5%.

So unless they have accumulated over 240 million shares in GGP, then there is nothing to declare via a TR1 as of yet.

But let’s be honest, for them to make a significant difference to any vote, they would need to acquire at least 25-30% of the 4.2 Billion shares in issue.
A tall ask even for NCM.

As Shaun has said many times, if any offer comes in for the asset, he wouldn’t even consider it unless it amounted to at least five years worth of growth from production, and even then would offer it out to the shareholders for a vote.

GingerBear, that wasn’t the point.
The point I was referring to was from the poster who asked if NCM would of been happy at paying out $60M instead of their own valuation that they put forward.

I think this video sums up what Sandeep did when he heard that GGP had accepted the deal.
https://youtu.be/Fkk9DI-8el4

Of course Newcrest will be happy. I can picture Sandeep doing bloody cartwheels across the office floor, shouting “I can’t believe we got it for $60M”.
Just think about the many multiples of return they will get for such a piddling amount.
$65M for 70%
$60M for a further 5%
$125M in total.
No plant to build
No airstrip to build
No De-commissioning costs for another 40-70 years
What’s not to like.

C’mon Rosso keep up.
Our caped will be around $123M.
Whatever we haven’t spent yet, will be spent.
So still need to find another $73M to put towards our share.
Maybe not quite as much now we have let go of another 5%, but still a debt.
That’s why SD is talking to the banks.

Went to bed in the early hours expecting to wake up to a bloodbath this morning, after reading the posts from last night.
Oh what a pleasant surprise to awake to the sound of birdsong, and better still, our SP actually up.

Feel like a full English now before a nice round in the sunshine.
You just can’t write this.

ATB everyone

This is the one we’re waiting for

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-04/220428_Newcrest%20Mar%202022%20Quarterly%20Report%20-%20Exploration_2.pdf

DoubleHun, No truer words said this evening.

You never know though, Shaun could announce that he’s done the deal to buy Telfer for a quid.

And if anyone takes that seriously, like some of the other guesses, then you need your head testing.

Anyway not long now before we find out.

GL

Nap what are you talking about ?

Good morning Zoros, I’m afraid to say imo, your bang on the money with your thoughts.
Just got to wait & see.

This will take years before we learn ultimately what is in the ground.

Like most invested here, we all think there are at least 20M Oz’s, I personally think more like 30-40M Oz’s, but unless I live to ninety, I will probably never find out, and I’m not even 60 yet.

Bamps makes a compelling argument to support his calculations, but even though he is the oracle here on all things to do with volumes, he doesn’t have a seat on the board, so at best they are only his opinions.

So until we read about the growing millions of ounces via RNS, whether that is released by NCM or GGP we can only dream that our opinions prove to be correct.

I know where my bet is placed, and whether I get to reap the rewards, or my kids/grandkids do, only time will tell.

ATB

LA I think the header is referring to tonight’s quarterly report.
Last years was on the 20th July.
Looks like this years will be out later tonight.
Just thought I’d respond to your post for clarification.
ATB

Exactly Bellers.
Grass & something to do with trees getting in the way me thinks ;-))))

Freddie I have already stated that I have given up posting things of importance, as I feel it’s like talking to a brick wall most of the time.

You tell me what others have posted that has given us a heads up, since the 5% issue rose it’s head.

Nothing, that’s what.

Yes folk post about what we have to look forward to in the coming months by way of dates.

Some post pdf’s so you can read instead of listening to interviews.

Some post about how they think the mine will progress.

I thank each and everyone of them for doing so.

But has anybody actually posted anything that we where not aware of.
I think not.

Just opinions after opinions.
Just like mine and yours.
Nothing earth shattering, just something to read on a hot sticky day.

I take your point GGPT and noted.
But I’m not having a go at anyone else, just a certain someone who needs to be told as it is.
As my moniker suggests, I don’t have a problem with speaking my mind, others do, but I won’t be changing a habit of a lifetime anytime soon.

ATB

GGPT it might only be around 5-10% now, but in the coming years it’ll be around 25-30% of their business.

Don’t forget, this is the saviour of Telfer. Protecting 1200 jobs & counting.
This is better than finding a new find in the middle of nowhere, as they already have a processing plant, accommodation & airstrip just up the road, all of which is saving them billions, as not having to build new ones or even de-commission the old one.

Make no mistake, this is absolutely massive for NCM as well as for little old 25%er GGP.

Well after reading your post’s for over a year now, I still haven’t seen you post anything of any importance that would help members of this group.

All I’ve witnessed is someone who has repeatedly done nothing but blame this, that and the other for your paper losses.

It’s about time you took some responsibility for jumping on this merry go round when it was spinning at its fastest.
No wonder it spit you off along with others who’d just about grabbed onto the rails, hoping for a quick thrill.
I have absolutely no sympathy for you.
If you had done your homework then you should’ve known the first rule in investing on AIM, is to never jump onto something that is travelling so fast, because when you come crashing down, it hurts.

If your sticking around then fine, but a bit more positivity wouldn’t go amiss instead of your incessant whinging.

I hope you do stick around and get what you want out of your holding, I really do, even if it’s so I could say “I told you so”.

If you can’t take a bit of banter, then god help you.
You’ll not find me running to mummy complaining that someone is having a go.
I’m too long in the tooth for that.

But please don’t keep being so pessimistic.
Try being optimistic instead, you’ll feel much better for it.

ATB