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''Gut feeling it will all end in tears, and no Lire will ever cross hands''
-----------------------------
Keep up old chap.
The award has been sold on, monetised for many 10's of €millions, subject to FIG snail pace sloth approval.
Just having a look at Navitas's end of year accounts and noted
'Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd NPDP ~ has past investments in the (Sea Lion) Oil Asset for tax
purposes in the total amount of approx. USD 700 million, that can be utilized
in the future against a taxable income from the Oil Asset.'
So presumably just royalties to pay for the first 12.5m bbls produced.
It would seem the sensible way to go BT, although that doesn't mean management won't balls that up as well.
For now getting ore dug and processed, whoever does it, is all that matters.
I suspect that whoever is supplying the 5th fleet, has also been tapped up to provide additional fleets, perhaps with a possibility of becoming the main contract miner.
January, the debt went up solely because the mine was built and so far, for various reasons, Hum management have failed to extract and process significant gold to process and bring down that debt.
Kouroussa has been an epic failure so far!!
The question is can management turn this debacle around before needing to go cap in hand to Coris, or the equity markets again? I don't know if they can, although I am sure they are desperately trying to. The one fleet still working is a slight silver lining however obviously insufficient.
Lost as in
'left it on a bus' or lost as in 'my neighbour lost £30,000 building a nice extension'.
Or lost as in
'spent it on the Kouroussa gold mine infrastructure to build an asset?'
BlooBird, I, my partner and a friend own 780k shares in HL, so probably it is not their general client base, as I assume it would be much more than 29m.
It could be either. China have the gold bug appetite, and money to snap up Cnr without flinching.
Calibre are the best fit on the ground.
Management are probably trying to play the two off, so if I was a betting man, then managements comments about meeting the Chinese, could be a ploy to get a better deal, or hurry up Calibre.
My money is slightly on Calibre.
Thanks for being honest about your investment, honesty is not common on Aim shares.
Rest assured many have lost as much, if not much more, especially those that moan and troll the forums the most!
Good luck.
Replying to trolls, and their derampy headlines, just gives them a boner. Stop messing enabling their desires!!
Here is a factual brief 3 year history of Navitas’s COMMITMENT to Sea Lion.
In my opinion at every step, it just confirms their unwavering desire to get SL into production, and as soon as practicable possible.
7 January 2020. Heads of Terms to farm in for 30 per cent interest in the Sea Lion when oil was approx. $60/bbl
30 November 2020. Following the announcement of the proposed merger of Premier Oil and Chrysaor (now Harbour), Navitas confirmed that it remains committed to the proposed 30% farm-in.
23 September 2021. Harbour Energy decide not to proceed with the Sea Lion project.
8 December 2021. Heads of Terms signed with Harbour to exit the Falklands and Navitas to farm-in, increasing from 30% to 65%.
19 April 2022. Navitas signed legally binding definitive documentation in relation to Harbour exiting and Navitas entering and become operator.
Just 11 month later…..
23 March 2023.
Navitas publish Sea Lion development progress.
Pre first oil capex: US$1.3B
Per barrel cost - life of field US$27.60 (Down from Premiers $40+/bbl)
Expected recovery of 269M bbls
FID during 2024, 2.5 yrs to first oil
10 months later……
22 January 2024.
Navitas have identified suitable and available FPSOs.
Pre first oil capex reduced $100m to US$1.2B
Per barrel cost - life of field reduced from US$27.60 to US$25
Increased oil recovery from 269 M bbls to 312 M bbls
Reiterate FID in 2024, first oil at the end of 2026.
9 Feb Thanks to Mogger.
Navitas development and production logistics manager Tom Campbell talked about the company’s vessel requirements to support the development of the Sea Lion field
“We will start chartering vessels in Q4 2025,” said Mr Campbell. These will support a harsh-environment semi-submersible drilling rig.
22 Feb Thanks to Petejay74.
Navitas calls for Expressions of Interest in support of infrastructure projects, which are the first in a larger multi-stage procurement process. At this stage Navitas requests accommodation for short-term then for long-term personnel for the operations themselves. The notice allows more than 400 workers to be added.
The duration of the above requirements will be for a minimum of five years and options for another five. They must be operational by the third quarter of 2025.
Was a buy, mine. Thought I'd stash my cash here either until the mine gets sold, or I want the cash for something else.
Hopefully I have timed my purchase, and caught the asset sale about right.
All the best.
Good find Pauldrayton.
''Experience across the oil and gas value chain including Subsea, Platform, FPSO, Refinery and Terminal operations. Highly skilled in managing green & brownfield projects through FEED, Construction, Commissioning, Start Up and Steady State Operations ''
Another post filled for the blindingly obvious soon to be sanctioned new oil field off the Falklands. At 13pence Navitas can lead the investor horses to water(oil) but cant make them drink :-)
As for the trolls, sadly I read many more useless replies to them than they actually posted. Use the filter !!
Buffit, it could be as Navitas envisaged 11 Wells in phase 1 with 5 pre first oil. HW gave an order for 6, so 5 pre first oil and a spare perhaps?
Thanks Bubble.
'Subject to agreeing final contract pricing and concluding commercial negotiations, the Directors believe that this project could generate total revenues between £100 million - £120 million over a two-year period, with works on the project expected to commence this year. The FIPASS project involves the build, transport and installation of four floating pontoons of approximately 90 metres each in the Falkland Islands.'
So another piece of the Sea Lion puzzle looks set to be available before the start of oil production.
The old FIRPASS will have to suffice for another 2 or 3 years though.
Although very welcome to see!!
I'm looking forward to the day when we see 5 penny rises, 10 penny rises.
Assuming Navitas continue, as they always seem to done with their other investments, then in 3 or 4 years time, 12, 15 pence will be a distant memory of wonder as to why we didn't buy more.
The writing has been written plainly on the wall that Sea Lion will be developed, the only question for me, is how much will it slip by, if at all. I personally would not be surprised to see first oil slip into mid late 2027, but the SP will be far higher than 12pence by then anyway.
AlmaCogan, logic suggests a tax on a benefit that never happened, would not be enforceable however it would be good if it was put to bed one way or the other.
Assuming SL goes to production, then for both sides, the tax becomes a minor sideshow as everyone will be rolling in £millions of profits, tax/royalties.
I personally would be happy if FIG could somehow insist Rock use the OM award solely for furthering SL, but I don't think they would interfere in the running Rock.
Rock, rightly imo and that of the legal advice taken, believe there is no tax to pay, on a $670m carry that never happened.
It is unlikely I feel, that FIG would try and use the monetisation of the OM award as a bargaining chip, as even if there was tax to pay on a $670m carry that never happened, FIG would only get it if Sea Lion got to production, so it is in FIG's interest to get SL into production.
Also the carry tax would be irrelevant compared to the tax and royalties from 300m + bbls of oil.
'Given the highly material nature of this judgment, professional advice has been sought to confirm that it is probable that if challenged it would be concluded that the Group is entitled to adjust the outstanding tax liability for the Development Carry that has become irrecoverable. As such, in the prior year, the Group derecognised the tax liability to measure it at the most likely amount that the liability will be settled for of US$nil. We are currently engaged with FIG in relation to formalising the tax implications of the termination of the 2012 Premier Oil farm down which resulted in an irrecoverable carry amount of approximately US$670 million.
Should it be proven that there is no entitlement to adjustment under the Tax Settlement Deed then the outstanding tax liability would be £59.6 million and still payable on the earlier of:
(i) the first royalty payment date on Sea Lion;
(ii) the date of which Rockhopper disposes of all or a substantial part of the Group's remaining licence interests in the North Falkland Basin; or
(iii) a change of control of Rockhopper Exploration plc.'
February 29, 2024 -
The ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 4 on the organization of the hearing.
Slowly moving forward. Still can't understand why FIG, who reportedly are keen on getting SL going, are dithering on the OM monetisation agreement
Agree BlooBird, the statement also said
'Following withdrawal, the UK will remain an ATTRACTIVE destination for investment in the energy sector due to its FAVOURABLE environment''
Gov't really is sniffing LSD in copious amounts.
Almost all our politicians, of all parties, are absolute Morons !!
Thanks again PJ, very helpful and very positive for FID.
I also found this confirming PJ's post.
https://es.mercopress.com/2024/02/21/falklands-petrolera-navitas-organiza-los-obradores-de-operaciones-para-el-2025?fbclid=IwAR15wQhzAdRYYnIEB904lF7nCo3dtZSO9xb5Od2mzA9UzRZm27VKtaVGXzo