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Although very welcome to see!!
I'm looking forward to the day when we see 5 penny rises, 10 penny rises.
Assuming Navitas continue, as they always seem to done with their other investments, then in 3 or 4 years time, 12, 15 pence will be a distant memory of wonder as to why we didn't buy more.
The writing has been written plainly on the wall that Sea Lion will be developed, the only question for me, is how much will it slip by, if at all. I personally would not be surprised to see first oil slip into mid late 2027, but the SP will be far higher than 12pence by then anyway.
AlmaCogan, logic suggests a tax on a benefit that never happened, would not be enforceable however it would be good if it was put to bed one way or the other.
Assuming SL goes to production, then for both sides, the tax becomes a minor sideshow as everyone will be rolling in £millions of profits, tax/royalties.
I personally would be happy if FIG could somehow insist Rock use the OM award solely for furthering SL, but I don't think they would interfere in the running Rock.
Rock, rightly imo and that of the legal advice taken, believe there is no tax to pay, on a $670m carry that never happened.
It is unlikely I feel, that FIG would try and use the monetisation of the OM award as a bargaining chip, as even if there was tax to pay on a $670m carry that never happened, FIG would only get it if Sea Lion got to production, so it is in FIG's interest to get SL into production.
Also the carry tax would be irrelevant compared to the tax and royalties from 300m + bbls of oil.
'Given the highly material nature of this judgment, professional advice has been sought to confirm that it is probable that if challenged it would be concluded that the Group is entitled to adjust the outstanding tax liability for the Development Carry that has become irrecoverable. As such, in the prior year, the Group derecognised the tax liability to measure it at the most likely amount that the liability will be settled for of US$nil. We are currently engaged with FIG in relation to formalising the tax implications of the termination of the 2012 Premier Oil farm down which resulted in an irrecoverable carry amount of approximately US$670 million.
Should it be proven that there is no entitlement to adjustment under the Tax Settlement Deed then the outstanding tax liability would be £59.6 million and still payable on the earlier of:
(i) the first royalty payment date on Sea Lion;
(ii) the date of which Rockhopper disposes of all or a substantial part of the Group's remaining licence interests in the North Falkland Basin; or
(iii) a change of control of Rockhopper Exploration plc.'
February 29, 2024 -
The ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 4 on the organization of the hearing.
Slowly moving forward. Still can't understand why FIG, who reportedly are keen on getting SL going, are dithering on the OM monetisation agreement
Agree BlooBird, the statement also said
'Following withdrawal, the UK will remain an ATTRACTIVE destination for investment in the energy sector due to its FAVOURABLE environment''
Gov't really is sniffing LSD in copious amounts.
Almost all our politicians, of all parties, are absolute Morons !!
Thanks again PJ, very helpful and very positive for FID.
I also found this confirming PJ's post.
https://es.mercopress.com/2024/02/21/falklands-petrolera-navitas-organiza-los-obradores-de-operaciones-para-el-2025?fbclid=IwAR15wQhzAdRYYnIEB904lF7nCo3dtZSO9xb5Od2mzA9UzRZm27VKtaVGXzo
BlooBird
they also want some long term accommodation from Spring next year, or 'earlier' !
''25 units that accommodate a maximum of 60 people (a combination of homes with 2,3 or 4 bedrooms). For a duration of five years with options for another five.
Initial units should be available by the second quarter of 2025. Earlier deliveries are also accepted.''
Thanks for the post PeteJay74
It is all in a long line of positive actions from Navitas, who were originally interested in Sea Lion when POO was sub $60/bbl.
Now at $80/bbl, having acquired 65% from Harbour/PMO and having spent tens of $millions on the project, it all adds to what most know but cant yet accept, Sea Lion will get the go-a-head probably in the next 12 months.
11p, cheap as chips.
'Remaining a member would not support our transition to cleaner, CHEAPER energy.........'
Green FibDems Tories are just as deluded as Liebour.......We are lead by political m0rons !!
The last big trading day was back in August 2022, when 40million shares were traded.
Pretty much since then its been light volume.
The SP will move up I feel, slightly once FIG sloths wake up and sign off the OM deal.
Have a spurt once Navitas give visibility regarding FSPO, rig, support vessels and long lead items.
Spurt again on hearing Italian annulment has been rejected, meaning Rock will be well funded for phase one without dilution.
Decent jump on positive FID/funding news.
Go gang busters if an ii decides it wants a decent piece of the Rocky pie.
Until the above happen, then it's probably just going to be a glacial rise towards 15p.
Oh, and forgot to add the Mogger find saying
“We WILL start chartering vessels in Q4 2025,” said Mr Campbell (Navitas).
These WILL support a harsh-environment semi-submersible drilling rig,
which WILL be contracted to drill the development wells on this project.
SL is so going to happen !
Thanks BlueBird for the link and it for me, clarified what Navitas have done to reduce Capex costs by $100m despite inflation. Selecting an existing re-deployable, available FPSO and tailoring your FDP to fit, makes super sense.
For me at least, the evidence that SL will be developed is staring us in the face. Just looking at the last update RNS says it all I feel.
The Sea Lion Field Development Plan ~ has been optimised utilising the 'SELECTED' FPSO specifications
The hydrocarbons' WILL' be produced through the redeployed FPSO
The FPSO 'HAS' a disconnectable turret enabling redeployment to another NFB field
Navitas ~ 'IS' actively working with leading industry vendors to 'SECURE' all long lead equipment
“We WILL start chartering vessels.....''
Thanks as always Mogger !
Looking at the short term graph there seems to be a slight uptrend for the last two months where we've moved from knocking around the mid 10pence level, to the mid 11pence.
I hope and expect this slow drift up to continue as the months go on. Perhaps with some acceleration with notable events, FIG OM agreement sign off (why is this taking so long FIG???) debt finance, FSPO selection/MOU, additional farm out.
Just musing, but on the last point it is interesting that Rock recently reiterated they have no intention of reducing from their 35%, almost saying to Navitas if you farm out it's coming from your %, or a ploy to say you'll have to really make it worth while to sacrifice another 5%.
Hi LTT,
it's not a hard and fast plan, and not necessarily at exactly 20p, 30p, 40pence etc. However at 30p I would be selling 100% above average purchase price.
I also have a plan that if I sold say 50k at 30p, I would buy back 50k if it dropped back 5pence, which allows for a bit of trading whilst carrying out the grand plan.
I'm luckier than most I guess, as I have a break evens of 15pence with 518k.
Assuming SL gets developed, which looking at the hypothetical maths/facts of
2C resources of 312 MMbbls
POO $75/bbl, $25 /bbl lifting costs
312 x 50 - royalties and tax = $10.14B profit NET to JV from Sea Lion alone !
My plan will probably be to sell 50k every 10pence rise to eventually leave me with 250k free shares which will remain for hopefully significant future dividends.
Did they hit guidance at Kour last year? No, huge miss.
Did they hit guidance at Yani? Yes.
So it's debatable as to their ability to achieve guidance. I expect HUM to hit, or just fall short of low end guidance.
Thats certainly true for the vast majority. Doesn't change the factually incorrect statement below, although it probably feels like a one way spiral downwards.
Maths are easy enough to see assuming Hum achieve anywhere near guidance. Question for most is do Hum have the ability, and luck, to achieve it?? Many are rightly sceptical !
It was sub 7pence last October, how does it spiral neverendingly 'downward' to 9pence?
Asking for a friend.
Hi LTT, yes, I see what you mean and agree.