The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Think this X post today is further proof why we are still waiting for firm contracts, as OEMs assess and reassess what they need to be NCAP equivalent compliant and provide cost effective safety solutions as part of their offerings.
https://x.com/seeingmachines/status/1711954844880114032?s=46&t=4iTTGsTkdFoiL-buaEhdWQ
Great article Seize and this one which was buried at the bottom has even more relevance to us
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/autonomous-drivings-future-convenient-and-connected
Just the shot in the arm we all needed to perk up our confidence and long held belief the stars are lining up.
My only ( usual ) caution to his windfall prediction on value is that - and i’ve mentioned this several times in the past- history shows that nobody bids let’s say 80p for a 5p share - all the analysis shows maximum premiums of 50-60% tops over market price at time of bid. So SEE has to earn that valuation by posting RNSs that demonstrate we’ve won contracts and record that as exponential growth in sales and soon profitability. That takes time, perhaps another 1 to 2 years - so we don’t want an early bid otherwise the full potential value will not be unlocked. To get our $5bn or what ever over time we need the SP to rise commensurate with the results - the sooner the better but starting in 2024!
Seize - i think you've expressed once again everyone’s long held frustration here. Whilst at one point i could have understood the OEMs secrecy about stealing a march on the competition by not disclosing their new tech, now everyone is shouting from the rooftops. Meanwhile we are invested in a disruptive tech unicorn in waiting with AI growing in significance to the IP we are developing and we still have to wait for 2 months until the KPIs can be released. Add to that the cloak and veil secrecy about what business we’ve won backed up by out of date posts on X and Linkdin as our only means of dropping some tidbits to the market.
Even our growing KPIs when they finally get released have not shifted our SP. I’m not even sure the market cares about profitability in this sector - look at Mobileye. ONLY an exponential reported growth in sales revenue will move this in the deliberate it seems absence of a blockbuster RNS. Come on see let the PR folks do what they’re paid to do !!!!
Https://x.com/seeingmachines/status/1707258861613207914?s=46&t=4iTTGsTkdFoiL-buaEhdWQ
Training video for PMG - wouldn’t it be nice to communicate our progress to the market like this!!
Maybe we need to hire an ex Mobileye lawyer to help us with our NDA’s !!!!
https://stocks.apple.com/Ab279PqPRRFyqnMnCv-XMzQ
Great stuff - just wished we knew the what and when
https://x.com/seeingmachines/status/1704722119311896606?s=46&t=4iTTGsTkdFoiL-buaEhdWQ
The only way is up !
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielnewman/2023/09/14/5-standout-announcements-as-tech-takes-iaa-mobility-2023-by-storm/
Everyone is trying to positively position themselves on frankly very little news. Those winning are at least closing deals but on relatively small numbers hence no numbers - we are playing the long game, influencing the legislature and collaborating with the disruptors - QC, Magna, Mobileye etc - who will win out long term the Smoke or the Mirrors!!
By the way only 2 weeks to go and Q2 in the bag - now the wait for KPIs !!
In watching the fascinating Qualcomm IAA Mobility video what jumped out for me is the breadth of thinking and collaboration going on in solving all aspects of the technological challenges associated with packing cars full of every conceivable offering. No surprise then to discovery the ‘cloud’ offers an easy solution to minimising battery usage for all these apps ( particularly with the stellar growth of EVs) and even less of a surprise that QC have partnered with AWS to provide the solution. It really is amazing what’s being conceived and of course with the cloud sat on top of everything updates over wi-fi made even simpler and cost effective. The only downside as previously mentioned is the speed in OEM decision making given the plethora of advancements they want in their latest models and hence the probable delay to those RFQs were waiting for!
So despite PMGs attempt to provide confidence to the market and help shore up the SP we’ve ended up
8% down on the week and with a neutral outlook by some random observer. All i have to say irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
The big news however i think most people missed was an amazing video posted on here by our good friend Johnchuka which I’m going to post again and very well worth the 45 minute watch. This is Christiano Amon CEO of Qualcomm at the IAA conference outlining in his own very watchable style their strategic overview of the future of Auto and how very insightful it is. This is so very much leading edge and why the future looks very tidy for us. The challenge unfortunately and hence why i think the RFQs are still in abeyance is the profusion of collaborations and multi layers of software that are becoming part of the potential menu for OEMs. Whilst we are spearheading DMS/ OMS/ AI related behavioural data these are but a few of the choices being made available as part of ‘the stacks’ be that to BMW/ Mercedes/ Ford and the others. I think if it were just down to a choice of how our software sits with other ADAS offerings we’d have more deals but there are clearly bigger decisions which we are just a small part of. Doesn’t get us the contracts we are all impatiently waiting for but contextualises the macro position much better than SEE are doing for us. Does however give me huge confidence we are part of a real revolution and Christiano superbly brings this to life here.
https://www.youtube.com/live/gMnMS1CLLBs?si=4q5csdhRM1D52lDf
Some juristictions do legislate for not exercising options in closed periods but i’m still struggling to understand why he exercised at all. He coujd have used his personal cash to buy as i stated earlier and then gone on to sell his shares when the time was right selling all and using proceeds to pay for tge options at 6p. In fact i’d go as far as to say it was a foolish thing to do. If like all of us feel our shares can at least double over the next two years ( or more) why would he possibly give up the upside on 7.5m shares now - that’s one hell of a forgone gain even after tax!!
Well Croq you’ve asked the $64000 question - why did ZpMG feel the need to go out and exercise 7.5m shares at close to market value when those options clearly have some time to run. If he’s done it go give confidence to the market he knows good news in the works why not over a series of purchase buy IN the market. That absolutely would have sent a stronger signal rather than on the face of it a hasty transaction to appease some quarters. Very strange indeed.
As a follow on both are essentially taxable in slightly different ways. As share ‘grants’ are free the whole of the value is treated and taxable as income when received. A great benefit as you only pay the day 40% tax but end up with the full value of the shares. Options are also taxable as income but only on the difference between the option price and MV at time of excercise. In PNGs case two days ago given SP and option price were pretty much the same there wound be little or no tax - he does however have to pay the full 6p per share.
So here’s how it works for avoidance of any doubt. Firstly if these shares were going to be ‘freebies’ as a few on here seems to think, they would have been given as ‘share grants’ not ‘share options’ . Secondly and also a point of contention here when a company awards options, they are allocated but initially unissued and placed into a trust so to speak until exercise. Once ‘exercised’ actual money HAS to change hands - in this case between the individual ie PMG and the company who then issue the shares. Standard stuff and nothing cloak, dagger or sinister. Hope that helps folks.