Article25 Nov 2019 17:23
Good article posted just now on LinkedIn by Rodney hooper: quality is king, and could come up trumps for us with SC.
Does the #lithium industry have a severe #quality problem?
Yes, it does - here's why.
Recent announcements by incumbents & developing producers should be ringing alarm bells. #SQM is aiming for 47KT 2019 sales, below previous guidance of 55KT. Strip out all the low-grade carbonate sold into China, 2019 sales of higher-grade material will be BELOW 2018. Orocobre's AGM presentation shows phase 2 (25KT) being ALL primary grade with only 10KT to be processed by Naraha into BG LiOH. #GXY plans to produce a non-BG Li2CO3 at SdV - the backend solution for BG is TBD. Kwinana is ramping (slowly), phase 2 is on hold & Kemerton is still under construction. The bright spot for BG LiOH supply is #Ganfeng; however, expansions will stretch management & finances. Senior technical staff at co's continue to warn of tightening quality requirements. New Chinese converters are chasing a moving quality target (upwards), current contaminant restrictions from cathode co's are, IMO, out of reach for most new entrants.
BOTTOM LINE - the bifurcation in Li pricing will continue or even WIDEN. The TRUE marginal CoP, incl transport, VAT & overhead is NOT $7/KT. Spot prices <$7/KT will see the excess supply of LG material come offline. Co's that meet OEM Q standards will sell & trade at market premiums.