Member Info for sonofelvis

Sorry I meant 685/695p. I did recently sell 50% of my holding at 690p as it was a very large %age of my total portfolio, but I still think it has an amazing future & agree with Mr Redrichmond that 1350p+ is a realistic target. I admire his courage in holding 200K & sincerely wish him good luck. We should all celebrate the 1000p breakthrough. I live in Dorset & the Pig on the Beach restaurant would be a wonderful place to meet up & celebrate.

The RNS December 12th right at the end said full year results March 14th. Incidentally Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle on the daily newssheet said he had sold an AIM share which had shown him a profit of over 300% which I assume must be Burford as he tipped it at 159p, so at 685p that is over 4 times (300%), so it will be interesting to see if he covers this & what he might say in this next Friday's issue. It has had one hell of a run, which I think explains why it is stuck around 485/495p. There is a large daily volume, the huge majority of which are buys. So it all hangs on just how high the March 14th profits will be & how much Argentina will contribute.

My broker was very keen on the German potential on top of the UK & USA potential & the £/$ rate for US earnings. At the interim stage R4E said borrowing costs halved due to lower borrowing, So 2nd half cash flow should reduce this further with the placing as well. Puzzled why finals are as late as end May nearly 5 months after the year end when interims came out 2.5 months after half year. Am hoping finals will be much sooner- 5 months delay for a plc is terrible. Otherwise prospects look fantastic & as I said the appointments add so much credibility to the company it should & will ensure the market will in hopefully short time take note of this.

Sorry 150,000 at 1.82 was me. I left this as max price with my broker as actual quote was 1.75p - 2.25p at the time, a near 30% spread. I originally bought in Dec 2015 at 1.0p, sold in May at 2.3p & bought placing at 1.5p. I believe that getting Sir Lew Grade & Claire Hungate, MD of Warners on the board is a huge vote of confidence in this business. People of that stature just don't join the boards of companies like R4E unless they think they are going places. Just sit tight & try to ignore the large ups & downs due to the small market size & the profits in millions in a few years time will see this price in double figures.

Thanks for your detailed analysis. I am very much more bullish. The interim statement on June 27th showed income+88% to $76m, & PAT +123% to $52.8M & eps 25.5 cents or 20p. New investments $200m v $81m in 2015; cash generation $99m. If you read the very detailed press report from the chairman after he said Brexit very positive. They would save $2.4m in interest with new exchange rate at $1.30. US assets had increased by £73m. More interestingly he said 1st half historically slower, more cases settled after the summer, December busiest month. New litigation commitments $193m or 2.7 times same period of 2015. Several cases highlighted inc Arizona land one which made $43.8m v cost of $7.4m All these points I think mean 2nd half will be well up on 1st half 20p eps. Since then Gerchen Keller acquisition for $160m nearly all cash or debt immediately earnings enhancing. They are no slouch with $15.4m income expected for 2016 v $11.2m in 2015. They only employ 20 people! ( Burford only have 60 odd ) Finally at 7 a.m. on January 3rd, just one hour before I bought more they announced they had sold several million dollars of their Argentine case for over 10 times its cost of under $18m. Their share was 70% & 60% after costs which seems to equate to over $100m over the next two years. They point out in some detail the difficulty of putting a value on cases in progress but implied the sale (on the very last day of the year) will help establish the value of this case which will be reflected in the 2016 profit. Quite how much will be added to the profit which needs the auditors agreement is anyone's guess but it must be very substantial to necessitate an RNS so immediately As you can see I am extremely optimistic on this share which I have followed in detail daily since June 2015, sadly like yourself, with hindsight selling part of my holding at 300p but buying back a few months later on the interims at 480p & again on the 1st trading day of January at what I hoped would be 575p just before the Argentine announcement which shot them up to 630p. Valuing Burford is unlike any other share I have owned in many years, having worked in the City on acquisitions way back in the early 70's. Simon Thomson in the Investors Chronicle is still very bullish. With the huge caseload increase & the £ $ rate now + Gerchen Keller +Argentina probably getting paid in 2017 the eps could be heaven knows how high.; so I see your target of 1371p quite probable.

I like your 1371p target. I don't know why you use 33 cents as eps with interim 20p per share.2nd half always more eps per the chairman + 100% growth in case total. Argentina settlement at over $180 million gross, part realised day before year end could add double or more to eps. Roll on March 14th now just five weeks away so we have an actual historic eps as a yardstick for current year exponential growth. I have doubled my original holding paying over four times my original purchase price. Does anyone have a guess forecast of this year's eps?

It will be interesting to see Q4 USA figures but also the full year bottom line which should be in the black. Analysts will then start projecting a full twelve months of the then current year with a full year's increasing sales from all the more recently signed UK supermarkets & above all a full year from the USA. I think then with a market capitalisation of only £6m the P/E ratio could look a bargain at this 1.5p level. Here's hoping from a long term holder.

That's right. He tipped Burford in June 2015 at 150p. In early 2016 I sold half my holding at near 300p so I got my original cost back, which with hindsight was a shame. In August their interims came out 120% ahead & I acquired added 50% to my holding at 395p.I have invested for decades & have never seen a share like this. It defies logical analysis. interim eps were 20p per share & I thought with a whole 6 months of the £ $ 20% in our favour, the huge volume increase & the chief exec saying 2nd half usually better than the 1st, eps of well over 25p probable. The Peterson total seems to me to be worth over 100p per share, if I read the numbers right with Burford saying it was worth over $180 million with 70% share les costs. I know it's a big one off but there is so much in the pipeline, I finf the 2017 eps impossible to calculate. Enjoy the ride.

Well done. I did exactly the same last week after the Peterson deal. As I said the numbers are so large I think the 2nd half profits could be over 100% higher depending on how much they take of the current higher value of that case. The RNS did say the sale would be a major influence on the valuation. I am hoping Simon Thompson in the I C might shed some light on the numbers.

Am surprised share price is still 228p.£ is now $1.2160, so cash is worth 241p & loan of 43 cents at full price another 35p. No price movement despite purchases of 835,000 shares on Jan 6th, 725,000 just reported for Jan 4th & another 200,000 so far today, worth £2m, £1.7m & £0.45m. Payout day now just over three weeks time. Does anyone know why price is so far away from theoretical 276p?

Interesting this minor sale was made just before the year end. It will add over $180 million in total to Burford's income.The directors say the sale prices will set the yardstick for valuing this huge investment. Burford's share seems to be 70% which after large expenses will be under 60%. The figures have to be agreed with the auditors. The increase in value will show as income in 2016 & 2017 & would seem to be around $100 million or just under 60% of over $180 million. If my understanding of these quite complex numbers is correct, this will make an enormous increase in the 2nd half & full year profits to be announced on March 14th.The 2017 or current year P/E with Gerchen Keller bringing in a full year, Peterson & the huge case increase will be very low. The numbers & exchange rates etc are too big to make any calculation. Any ideas?

Sorry the loan note of 43 cents is 5% payable in 7 years.Does this mean to get the 34 pence of the 270p we have to wait till 2024 or cash we sell the notes before then?

Agree shame to be taken out as I have been a long term holder. I don't understand why with the bid at 270p the price is 215p. I don't understand the 54 cent,I think it was, 5% loan element .It mentioned unquoted so how do you get your full 270p. A vague hope that the newly appointed advisers will come up with a better bid by Dec25th but as the board almost control CHT not likely. Any enlightenment would be welcome as I am abroad & cannot afford to speak to my broker!

I did read that Banco di Paschi alone had bad loans of E350 billion which were seven times their net assets & they are only the third biggest bank. I am a huge bull of Burford & just hope in x months time with another set of figures, their true value will be reflected in the share price. But as you quite rightly point out the European bank situation is terrible

Does anyone think there is a chance of an update when the December LTIP is approved. Quite happy to wait till February. Interested to see VW announcing 30,000 redundancies in next few years & just wonder if they are clearing the decks for Europe case settlement in which Burford invested almost one year ago. I remain a committed long term holder who like Redrichmond has had some awful mining & pharma shares.

Sorry I see it was 30 million euros for the German claim. Even so the US settlement could influence the finalisation of the German one. Here's hoping.

Today's Times reports a US judge has approved the near $15 billion settlement for nearly 500,000 to sell their cars back to VW & receive $10,000 in compensation. Does this mean that Burford's $30m or £30m investment in the case last December will now be reported in the second half figures.The sum could be very substantial & could explain the recent movement in Burford's price. What do you think my friend Mr H F Wizard.

Thanks. A few more points from the I C article. CHT has a practice management division generating stable & growing revenue from physicians under a FORTY year agreement. Simon also points out that at the start of 2016 the share price was similar i.e. about 178p on 11 times 2017 earnings when the £ was $1.47. Since when the eps forecast for 2017 has been raised 10% so the future P/E is now only 8 against 11 in early 2016. My own point is that 2017 is now less than 3 months away rather than 12 months away, as it was then.. He also said if it breaks through the May 2015 high of 190p, which it now has, that would be very bullish. He has a target price of 250p & rates the shares as a strong buy. I have taken the bull by the horns & added almost a further 50% to my holding.

You must get your Simon Thompson tips online early. I see in Friday's actual Investors Chronicle, he strongly recommends CHT for the reasons you show. He highlights the recurring nature of the business with two thirds of last years revenue on two to five year contracts which underwrites the argument for a higher rating as not many businesses I know have this guarantee of future business. Tesco would give their right arm for this profile. I was also interested to see the non exec director Sir Rodney Aldridge had founded Capita & had a controlling interest in a medical billing company which he later sold. What a track record to have as an advisory director. As you say the sky is almost the limit for CHT with the expansion of the whole industry in the USA, growing elderly population etc even if they only make small acquisitions

As I said in my Sept 2nd note, I hope the 2nd half will well exceed the 8.33p eps with a full 6 months from MDRX, the 15 new clients & the increasing momentum & significantly higher gross margin on last year's. With the £ now at $1.29 the translation of the dollar earnings will further enhance the 2nd half translation.