Member Info for Sonic80

I added to my holding today, with some of the trades going through on NEX. I think we’ll see a positive production and 2019 guidance update soon.

I agree. Their holding on the RNS was 26,333,334 shares, so it fits with the recent lump trades. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them or any other big investors accumulating more shares at these levels.
Market cap is way too low down here. Won’t be down here for much longer though IMO.

Nice to have some bigger share holders on board. Nice big chunk bought in the RNS yesterday. And the Conaccord one is just reduction in percentage due to more shares from placing. No shares actually sold.
So 2 solid holders above the 3% threshold. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more before too long, or current ones upping their stake. Huge opportunity for growth here IMO.

The production update and 2019 guidance looks like being a key factor for near-term share price movement. There have been a lot of previous diamond mining companies on AIM that have failed, and unfortunately given the sector a bit of a bad name. The problem has almost always been investors losing patience with repeated fund raises before any sign of profitability.

I think BRD have a great opportunity to buck that trend and prove any sceptics wrong going forward. Unfortunately the latest fund raise has not helped with that, but hopefully they will see 2019 as a golden opportunity to deliver some profitability, and really focus on that this year.

Sorry, that should probably read second best case scenario... with the best being finding a stone worth more that than the whole company...!

Thanks jscapper. In that case, they would hopefully be able to open up KV5 and still turn a decent profit on a projected $6 million 2019 revenue. KV5 looks to have even bigger and higher value stones than KV1, so that could be exciting. There does still seem like a lot of potential positive near-term news here. Placing has taken the wind out of the sails for a while, but hopefully only temporarily.
Best case scenario would be for mining update, diamond sales update, including recent large stones, and 2019 projected estimates to raise the SP enough for some of the warrants to be converted at 0.4p, and more cash coming in to the company that way.
We should get updates in the next few weeks on those fronts, so I’m going to forget about it for a while until we see those.
And on another plus side, the sun continues to shine in Kimberley, so hopefully they are making hay, especially now they’ve gone to 365 operations...
Good luck everyone. Let’s hope it comes good here. It’s still got a very good chance to IMHO.

Very frustrated by the timing of the placing. The only saving grace is that it was not done lower than 0.3. But despite this placing, I still think the potential here is huge.
For what it’s worth, for 2019 I think:
350k tonnes / 5 cpht / 350 $/ct, which would give revenues of just over $6 million.
But I think any cash made on this will be put straight into developing KV5, so that they end the year break even.
Good luck everyone. Hopefully some positive news flow from here.

Confirmation of a move to 365 operations.
January operations update - productivity, grades, diamonds tender.
Full year guidance for 2019.
Valuation of latest 16 carat stone.
February diamond tender results, including latest string of individual high value stones.
Oh, and the fact that more exceptional quality, high value stones could be found at any time... Lots of news to look forward to.

This is SPECTACULAR news!
In the last week, they have mined diamonds worth around 25% of the market cap of the entire company, and they have only just started to scratch the surface of this new KV1 pipe. Hitting such a sweet spot already is incredible. Lots more to come!
This sort of investment opportunity doesn’t come around very often... Happy days!

The only people holding over 3% of the company are Adam Waugh (CEO) and Nick Sutton (private investor). I doubt very much AW sold on the day he gave that interview. If NS wanted to sell, then he might have used a positive news day as a way to dispose of a large chunk of his shares, in which case he needs to inform the company, who in turn need to inform the market.
If it was a buy, then whoever bought now holds over 3%, and also needs to inform the company / market.
With the share price static after such positive news, it seems more likely NS saw the news as an opportunity to sell a large proportion of his stake. But either way, an RNS is due.

From the January 2019 RNS:
Adam Waugh, CEO commented, "2018 has seen good progress for BlueRock with both production and the recovered grade increasing significantly. The results from our second kimberlite pipe, KV1, which came on stream in June last year, and from the undiluted levels of our first kimberlite pipe, KV2, have shown a marked increase in grade, which we expect to continue into 2019. Our move to 365-day operations is expected to start in February and is expected to give us around 40% additional plant availability. This, coupled with a consistently improving grade profile, makes the outlook for 2019 very encouraging. It is hoped that the operational improvements seen over the last two years and further improvements planned will now translate into generating value for shareholders."

There are around 100 million warrants at 0.4p, which would bring in £400k if and when they are exercised. It would also take the total number of shares to 550 million, so at 0.4p, that would be a market cap of £2.2 million.

They had £250k cash end of June 2018. Costs run at around £220k per month, according to previous results. They had £900k revenue from diamond sales in H2 2018, and raised £700k in November 2018. So at end of year 2018, they should have had around £500k cash. They also had £200k worth of diamonds on hand, which should have been sold in January 2019.

Going forward, they need to sell enough diamonds each month to cover the £220k costs, and any more would be profit. Seeing as they now work in quarters, and sell diamonds in US dollars, that equates to around $850k costs per quarter. At $325 / carat, that would be around 2600 carats per quarter needed to cover costs.

In the last few years they have been no way near that because of lower production levels, and processing the dilute surface material at lower carats per hundred tonne (cpht), hence they have been loss making, and needing to do placings to raise funds. But I believe they are now at a stage where they can achieve those numbers of carats, and not require placings to support the Kareevlei mine.

I expect guidance for 2019 to be 300k tonnes at 4 cpht. That would equate to 12000 carats for the year, or an average of 3000 carats per quarter.

And given the recent updates on grades and quality of stones, those guidance figures are increasingly looking like they would be very conservative. By the end of 2019, they expect to be doing 400k tonnes per year, and will be getting down towards the 6.2 cpht inferred resource of the KV1 pipe, which would equate to 24000 carats per year...

The price would suggest it’s possibly a sell, but surely a strange day for an investor to sell their stake, given the RNS in the morning? Anyways, should get and RNS soon to confirm one way or the other.

14 million trade reported just after close. Difficult to say if it’s a buy or a sell based on the price, but it’s over 3% of the company, so either way there’ll be a TR1 soon to let us know. Hopefully it’s an impressed investor loading up after recent meetings, or may be even a director increasing their stake on the open market...

The market makers have been posting all buys as sells, pretty much since the RNS. All my top-ups have been posted as sells, including a 0.3475 buy this morning.
With any luck it’s because they are short of shares and struggling to keep a lid on this!
SP should be a lot higher IMO, but no rush, happy to keep accumulating down here.

Your 4 million buy just popped up Fendkies.
Second highest volume day ever, and it’s only lunchtime.
Very good things coming here IMHO.

Your 4 million buy just popped up Fendkies.
Second highest volume day ever, and it’s only lunchtime.
Very good things coming here IMHO.

Great news today. A further demonstration of the quality of the mine, and the potential for BRD.

Astounded that the market cap is still hovering around £1.5 million, but very happy that I have been able to accumulate 1.2 million more shares at 0.3425 and 0.344 this morning.

2019 looking very, very strong here IMHO.

1.5p is perfectly achievable IMHO.
52-week high is 2p, and 1.5p would still only be a market cap around £7 million.