Member Info for Sonic80

Share price has fallen 50% during coronavirus outbreak, but if anything, viewing of online content should be up. Other online-based companies are seeing an increase in revenues.

With results due next week, it will be interesting to see what the forward-looking statement says, in particular what effect the current outbreak might have on revenues. I suspect the effects would nothing like warrant the 50% drop, but who knows.

They have previously stated enough cash to reach profitability, but it will be interesting to see if that is reaffirmed. Also if they can give any indication of Q1 performance.

Either way, next few weeks should be a bit more interesting for BBSN than the last few...

RNS on 16th of December 2019 has already stated positive outcomes from preliminary results, and that full results need to go through the necessary regulatory authorities before they can be released. So I wouldn’t expect any further news on it until that has been done and full results RNS can be released.

VAL401 initial data analysis RNS was released on 28th September 2017, followed by full data results RNS on 12th December 2017, so a gap of around 6 weeks. The share price went up >500% in a few days on that release.

VAL201 full results RNS could be soon if the timescale is similar to VAL401, and could have even more of an impact IMO.

Tyrosine Protein Kinase Fyn market

https://expedition99.com/2020/01/28/%EF%BB%BFglobal-tyrosine-protein-kinase-fyn-market-2020-ab-science-sa-astrazeneca-plc-bristol-myers-squibb-co-valirx-plc-zen-bio-inc/

Valirx mentioned in the same list as Astrazaneca and the like.

The potential is definitely there for Valirx to be a big player if they can manage it.

I know it’s a big if, and it might all go tits up. That’s the risk. But if VAL201 results are positive then it is a potentially massive advance for those suffering with prostate cancer. Here’s hoping for a positive outcome for all involved.

The next phase would involve a randomised controlled trial, yes, but I’m afraid your friend is incorrect on the timescales.

For this type of study you are measuring response to treatment after set time periods, typically 3 and 6 months, at which point they would measure PSA (a marker of disease activity in prostate cancer), and any interval change in the size of the prostate lesion +/- any metastatic deposits (typically on MRI scan). The response is compared for the 2 groups of patients (the ones receiving the treatment and the ones receiving a placebo) to see if there is a significant effect. You are not measuring effect on mortality rates, so the trial does not continue for a prolonged period.

For ethical reasons, the 3 month data has to be analysed as it comes out, because if the results are significant then the trial might have to be stopped early (you can’t just keep giving placebo to the placebo group if the drug is shown to work).

Anyway, all the interest is on the results of this phase at the moment. If they are confirmed as being positive then the potential here is huge IMO. Let’s wait for that first before too much talk of phase 3...

IMO what could have been the motive for the recent RNS...

If they anticipate good results for VAL201, but needed to look into funding to the tune of £5m for VAL401, then they were in a bit of a dilemma. Raising £5m when the market cap is only £1.5m would have caused massive dilution and lessened any potential share price rise from the upcoming VAL201 results. So if VAL401 is split off from VAL201, then the funding for VAL401 can be organised separately, without diluting the VAL201 arm of the business. This would then allow the share price to massively benefit from the effect of positive VAL201 results.

Just my opinion, but I truly believe a massive rerate could be on the cards here when VAL201 results are fully announced. US patent already secured as well, so if this is proven to work then the market potential is huge.

Hope you see that massive recovery to get back up to your average rightback.

I agree with Eyeguy that it’s all pivotal on the upcoming VAL201 results.

If full analysis confirms the positive preliminary analysis, which it should, then I really think this could quickly be trading back up in a 1-2p range. So if your average is anywhere near that, or could get there with some averaging down, then I think you’ve got a good chance. And if you’re average is higher than that, then at least it would limit your losses at those levels.

Good luck.

Market cap on Nasdaq listing now $100m, and on LSE still only £45m.

A share price around 80p would be parity for MPH with its Nasdaq listing.

Significant further rise expected here.

https://www.marketexpert24.com/2019/11/08/huge-growth-in-online-brand-protection-software-market-is-thriving-worldwide-by-top-key-players-like-brandverity-inc-corporation-service-company-custodian-solutions/

I think it’s worth a buy at these levels. Doesn’t matter to me if results are tomorrow or in a few weeks’ time. New auditors are in place, so always likely to take longer to finalise the results. The first 6 months results are already known, and they looked positive to me. If the full year results follow that trajectory then the future could be very positive, and this could prove to be the inflection point. Either way, investors / bb posters will know soon enough, so little point debating in the meantime...

No problem at all. Hope it helps. Sorry to hear that you’re under water here. There was lots of buying around the 12p mark last autumn, and for good reason. The long term prospects here look very good. I am surprised that the SP has been allowed to drop so far since then. For what it’s worth, I think you will see your money back and then some. This is a hugely exciting sector to be in, and GFIN looks to be steadily turning itself into a major player.

Sure. We’ll get a more accurate update in the second week of October. But happy to share my estimates in the meantime...

Fixed expenses are around £10m per year. So at 30-40% margin, they need roughly £25-30m revenue to break even. They have stated that they expect to achieve this by 2021 at the latest, but at the rate revenues are increasing, I suspect it could be sooner.

Cash at 31st December 2018 was £6.4m. Revenues for the preceding 6 months were 143% up on the previous year at £4.4m. They have stated revenues and EBITDA for 6 months to 30 June 2019 were ahead of market expectations. So if you hypothesise £6m may be, and then £8m for 6 months to Dec 19 (£14m for that 12 months), that would result in a loss of about £5m for year to Dec 19. Then for 2020 say £20m revs at a loss of £2, and 2021 £28m revs at breakeven. So based on the £6.4m cash at Dec 2018, they might need to raise a couple of million before break even.

However, the revenues are growing at a very fast rate, so these estimates could easily be smashed. They have already said 6 months to June 19 were ahead of expectations, and now they are working with the likes of Amazon...

Could it return to all time lows? Sure. But I think it is much more likely to have a long, steady rise from here. IMO you will see a good return on any investment around these levels in a much shorter timeframe than 5 years. But I also plan to hold long term, and I fully expect GFIN to be a gaming / esports giant by then.

30% rise in SP in the last month, RNS last week saying revenues are growing faster than expected, and now RNS today saying GFIN are working with Amazon prime... and not one message about it on the bulletin board. This has to be the most under the radar share ever!

It also trades on NEX. 8.7m traded on AIM, 2.25m on NEX, so just shy of 11m traded today...

Bluenalu looks to me like it’s got more potential than beyond meat, and that is now worth $10 billion after recent IPO.

They already own 2% of Bluenalu, which looks like a very good investment. Then any other company they buy into with the £4.5 million will automatically be worth a lot more and have better potential than it would have done before they bought in, even if only for having Richard Reid linked to it. He has had huge success with innocent, and would automatically add value to any company they buy into. So it is pointless just valuing it at NAV. The quality and the experience of the BOD has the potential to be worth many multiples of NAV, hence the share price rise. I don’t think this rise is anywhere near being done yet. But we will see over the coming days and weeks for sure.

Hi all,

Not posted on here for GFIN before, and am a relatively new GFIN share holder, but I’ve extensively researched the company and am positive about prospects.

A question got asked on Twitter the other day about what GFIN’s revenue streams are, other than physically hosting live events. I answered it on Twitter, but would be keen to share my answer with this board for opinions as well please.
I, as a shareholder, am probably going to be a bit more positive than others, especially non-shareholders, but I would be interested to hear other people’s views...

They have the physical venue for hosting live events, but that only makes up a tiny part of their business. The main part is organising and running online gaming / esports tournaments. This can be either managed or owned. The managed tournaments are for the likes of the Premier league, and televised on Sky sports. For these, Gfinity get paid a rate at a 30-40% gross profit margin. The owned tournaments Gfinity run themselves, so they are then able to sell advertising / sponsorship for them, similar to how a television company does. These tournaments have obviously taken some loss-making years to set up and get established, but they are now turning towards profitability, with huge future potential.

As their reputation grows, so they can command a higher fee for the managed tournaments. And as viewing figures grow, so they can sell more advertising / sponsorship for their owned tournaments. In the 6 months to 31 December 2018, over 50 million fans viewed Gfinity created content for owned and hosted events, up 4.3x versus the previous year. Their owned Elite Series Season 4 had more than 13.5m viewers for live events and 7m views of additional shoulder content. This is why Unilever (lynx) and Dominoes have signed up sponsorship deals with them, and more will surely follow. Viewing numbers are taking off, the sector is in a rapid growth phase, and GFIN look set to be a big, big player.

Looks like a very good deal for XTR. Surprised market cap is still so low. Will be interesting to hear podcast / interview today.

David Facey is now the CEO and CFO of TSTR, further confirmed by the details at the end of their RNS this morning. He cannot therefore be BRDs CFO any more. I find it bizarre that BRD have not had to release a statement regarding this. Expecting an update tomorrow morning at the latest. Hopefully the delay is so they can update on April production and 2019 guidance at the same time.

I completely agree - if they show that they are not reliant on fund raising, then the share price should come back up to at least fair value, which I think should be around £8 million, may be more if potential is factored in.

Achieving profitability should be the overriding focus for the BOD this year IMO.

On a separate note, they will have to release an RNS next week about the CFO. It will be interesting to see if they give any production update in that as well. It would be nice to have it all bundled in together in one RNS - CFO news, April production update, and 2019 guidance.

Thanks for the update Connie. Great to hear 24/7 operations running as planned. Enjoy the rest of your trip.