Member Info for somm

Having researched the Jade prospects CoS etc. I've just bought in 150K shares - looks pretty good to me.

Got to be in it to win it.

The risk with CASP is obviously with the Russian Pipeline having an embargo put on it in the coming months. ATM, Hungary/ Germany/ other need the Russian Gas/ oil from the Russian pipeline network for many months - until they can replace the gas/oil supplied from another country(s).

Where is the nearest refinery/ pipeline CASP can truck their oil to? They will need today 10 * 200 barrel trucks to transport their oil (soon may be 30-50 trucks) if they had to truck their oil. They have around $25/$35 to play with for trucking their oil at todays oil price per barrel, but could be more depending on the distance to the nearest refinery/ pipeline and oil price, they may have no alternative but to truck their oil and being hit with a significant transportation cost per barrel.

I think it’s only a matter of time before the Russian pipeline is sanctioned or Ural oil using the Russian pipeline network will have deeper price cuts to hit Putin’s war machine further.

Where’s the nearest refinery/ alternative pipeline?

KK,

Soon?

We will see a few spuds in the coming weeks/months, but unfortunately we won't see any new oil for months - Q3.

If the 142 Well has started to be sidetracked (should have started end of March) then we could see flow testing as early as June.

IMO.

''17 January 2019.

The Board of Caspian Sunrise are pleased to provide the following operational update at its flagship BNG asset.

Deep Well A5

Background

The well was drilled in 2013 to a depth of 4,432 meters. High pressure resulted in the well becoming blocked with excess drilling fluid and debris from the reservoir.

Subsequently a side-track at an angle of 15 degrees from a depth of 4,082 meters was successfully completed and a 5-inch liner run to the new bottom of the well.

Potential oil-bearing intervals of 105 meters have been identified.

For 15 days between 23 October 2017 and 27 November 2017 the well flowed at the rate of approximately 3,800 bopd before being restricted by a partial blockage, resulting in the flow rate falling to some 1,000 bopd.

Recent attempts to clear the well have been hampered by unwanted metal being lost in the well. Attempts to pull the metal from the well were not successful and the Company decided to remove the unwanted metal by using specialist milling tools to grind it down to a level where it should not interfere with the operation of the well.

Current position.

Caspian Sunrise is pleased to report that milling operations continue to make progress at a current depth of 4,152 meters and expects to be in a position to test the well in the not too distant future.''

I THINK THE NEXT SIDETRACK WITH BE THE THIRD ATTEMPT.

COMPANY MAKING WELL FOR SURE. I WONDER IF THEY APPLIED FOR AN EXPORT LICENSE AT THE TIME?

ODS,
Indeed a very disappointing RNS and imo we'll not see any drilling action for months now apart from the spudding of a shallow Horizontal Well, which in turn will take at least four months to complete and flow test if all goes well, though we could see the 142 Well come in in a couple of months.

Does anyone know if the A5 Deep Well discovery (initial 3,800 bopd) reservoir was given an Export License?

A8 Deep Well: 2 of the 3 intervals are none commercial leaving the third and shallowest well to be perforated at a later date, probably well after they have sidetracked the 142 Shallow Well/ sidetracked the A5 Deep Well and most likely after they have re-drilling the A7 Deep Well which could be commercial - the A5 Deep Well is our best chance of commercial quantities of oil be produced having flowed initially at 3,800 bopd.

So only the A5 Deep Well in H2 to look forward to.

Focus is now on the shallows horizontal wells - may be will see 7 of them spud this? They're looking to increase production by approx. 1,300 bopd this year from the shallows, who knows the A5 Deep Well could double the overall production by year end? They should have focused on the A5/A6 Deep Wells imo before spudding the A7/A8 Deep Wells.

The reduction in Brent oil price through the Urals takes us back to $70 pboo and around $30 net profit per barrel.

As I've said many time the dividends are to pay the WCP who will get 65% of the payments, which are now touted as being paid Quarterly and will also replace KO's 7 % loan interest payment to boot - this is a joke because there's a good chance the Russian oil pipeline network could be cut off in the near future, meaning they should be shoring up capital as much as possible not handing quarterly payments out like confetti when every penny will be needed as exampled by stopping the A7 Deep Well and not finishing the third A8 Deep Well interval (3 months to drill thus far and another 4 to get to TD - should have taken 4 months to drill they said) .

So shallow horizontal wells to look forward to being spud is about it especially nothing coming up re hire/ sale of CE - £100K per month costs was it? then add on the $800,000 BNG license costs per quarter and now dividends.

Someone should get the chop or at least Carved up....

Oil price shooting up $135.70 now up $2 bucks since he started his speech.

CASP in the money - get 15 March out of the way and we'll be off.............

The share price is dropping due to our oil being sold through the Russian pipeline which is about to be capped off, because of sanctions.

Not much we can here but to find an alternative route.

I said the share price would drop on 140m shares hitting the market 15 March and expect a drop of around 10% on the day - with the share price soon to pull back.

So with the above I'm guessing we'll lower 3p range for the next week.

Once the above news are out of the way I expect a Op's Update RNS and the start of the share price rise through the coming months, especially when KO tells us our oil has been redirected (if need be).

If I bought EVR today would I qualify for a dividend payment (9 March?) - do you have to be invested a certain length of time before the dividend is paid out?

Thanks

Thanks KK,

A cracking note.

I could go into that note so much, but hey will already know what's unfolding, a few millionaires in the making here :-)

Got to be in it to win it.

Not the one you'll be invested in. lol!

CC,

Yep, read Richy's A7 post and you'll see that.

Stands out like a sore thumb they've been waiting to get the $6.2M debt conversation out of the way before releasing a proper Op's Update - I'm hoping there isn't one before 15 March when the 140m shares drop.

When the 140m shares drop no doubt we'll see an initial 10% drop se per - another top up time for me.

A8's 2nd/ 3rd intervals flowing will see this blast off - if they can flow 120 bopd from the deepest interval it's looking very good with the 2nd/ 3rd intervals flowing, with them being shallower, throw in the other spuds/ news and the new 140m shares out of the way and off we go with a very good chance of an offer on the cards YE/2023. imo.

April onward is looking good.

CC,

Clive reckens 65 K bopd approx. 2,100 bopd.

Don't forget the 300 barrels from the 4 SY wells that won't be included in that number nor are the A8 Deep Wells 128 barrels, but with 154/153 production increses his 65K bopd production for January will likelt be higher.

Didn't you say A7 had catagorically not spud?

Richy says he was told it had spud and was currently at a depth of 750m - oh who to believe?

All other stuff I've already covered - rinse and repeat.................

I think the whole board will be glad.

Nice one Richy, I said the other day they'd be hovering around the 1,000m mark so not far off.

Did they mention anything about the 802 Deep Well spudding too?

CE hire/sale and 3AB sale aside the dividend will be coming from spare cash generated over the coming year from productions net profit, which will be approx. £24m based on $40 profit per exported pboo and $25 profit for domestic oil sales pboo – and 65K barrels produce in January.

What are they going to throw into the divi pot, a few million quid?

Looks like the divi is a red herring to me and the CP at el are transferring their cash/ bonds into shares now because they’re planning/ expecting an offer for the Company not too far away.

CC says they have not spud the A7/802 Deep Wells – pray tell? The A7 well was supposed to have spud in late December 2021 - swapped around from the A5 Deep Well sidetrack spud – possibly because the A5 drill pipes hadn’t arrive after waiting 3 months for them?

If at the very least the A7 hasn’t spud then we’ll be waiting into July/ August for initial flow test results from the deepest interval – if it flows and probably Q4 for the 802 Deep Well flow testing if that spud later.

So we have the testing on the A8 Deep Well to be completed – another couple of months there and several shallow wells to spud in the coming months, supposedly.

I can’t see a divi being paid until Q3/4 from production though perhaps sooner on the back of the CE being hired out re Q2 or the A8 Depp Well interval 1, 2 and 3 are flowing thousands of bopd ($25 per barrel profit from domestic sales would help with a divi if it is flowing thousands o bopd).

The 2 deep wells A7/ 802 are going to cost near on $8 million in a perfect world (no sidetracks etc.) and the shallow wells are going to cost $1.5 million per well (4 shallow wells this year with 8 touted?), so there’s at least $14m without what’s going on with A8/ admin/ other - so where’ this divi comin from? A divi of 0.0025 paid out twice a year for example is approx. $14m.......blah blah blah.

The divi is bollux……………unless they’ve got a fantastic deal done to sell/ hire out CE/ A8/ shallows doubling production this year.

For me I’m in until the majority of the deeps/ shallow wells are flowing/ new CPR/ 2022 FY results/ TO and with the new shares and shares being moved around I’m guessing a TO is more in site than we believe to be atm. The table and chairs are being set up and the knives and forks to boot buy year end.

I wonder why they call it a Concert Party?

I hope you guys have your tuxedos ready for when the fat lady sings : - )

Example.

Lets say CASP pay a dividend out at 0.0025p per share that would pay the family approx. £2,750,000.

The $6,200,000 loan currently earns 7% p.a. interest approx. £325,500 p.a.

The new approx. 140, 000,000 shares @ 0.0025 would get £350,000 * twice a year = £700,000. A no brainer…….and if it increases well voila plus if the share price increase 5* they’ll get $20 million++………..

As I’ve said before I’m against a dividend atm, imo all cash should be spent on bringing the deep wells etc. into production. CASP’s profit for the year works out at approx. £24 million net and they’re going need more than that to bring the 6 deep wells plus A7/ 802 and the 8 shallow wells they want to spud/redrill horizontally and keep the lights on.

I’m befuddle with their logic tbh as they were just about keeping the lights on last year.

If they’re forward thinking of selling their 85% WI in A3B (if it has commercial flow rates) then fine great we’ll get a decent dividend - what if it's a duster?

Why throw say £5 million? into dividends what good will that do the average PI (very little) when instead it could be used to bring A5 and A6 into production for example – if just these two deeps flowed continually the thousands of barrels of oil we know they can flow at that £5 million (whatever) would pale into insignificance compared with the share price rising 4-6 * on the back of them flowing/ increasing the P1/P2/2C numbers.

When CASP have serious money in the bank then they can hand out dividends.

My guess is they’ve done a deal hiring out the CE for £20 million plus say and that’s where the dividend will be coming from – combined with the sale/production of A3B and their net profit for the year then even so the surplus cash should still be invested in getting ALL the deeps/ shallows flowing first.

The above numbers are not far out imo but the main point is I’m against dividends being paid out at this time, especially with exported production not even at 2k bopd.

Prove up the shallow/ deep reservoirs and then look at paying out divends with production in the many thouands.

Look at GKP producing 40K bopd and throwing $50 million into dividends - our production should be in double figures too before chucking it away.

I will no doubt benefit from dividends more than most PI's and I'm still against the idea.

BTW.
There are very very few II's who will invest in an AIM stock like CASP, and a dividend would mean nothing to them, the ones that would invest in a high risk stock are not looking for dividends but growth from production/ big discoveries etc. only if CASP moved off AIM would there be a wider II audience. Look at what happened to Tom Dobell and his $billion dollar fund, fund managers might invest between 01-1% of the fund they manage in a high risk stock, but they have to go by many guidelines and be given the nod by the II bosses to boot, which is why many fund managers will not invest in AIM stocks.

The dividend

The A7 deep well was supposed of have spud before last years end according to the 22 Dec RNS, nearly 2 months ago.

''In compliance with our existing work programme obligations a new deep well on the Airshagyl structure, Deep Well A7, is set to be spudded before the end of the month. The well has a planned Total Depth of 5,300 meters and is targeting oil in the Carboniferous and Devonian. Drilling is expected to take approximately 4 months.

Deep Wells A7 and 802 are the final deep wells required to be drilled under the terms of the BNG licence. Once completed and provided the oil price continues at existing levels the board expects the cashflows from operational activities to improve significantly.''

Note they don't say IF the wells flow - they are pretty much saying they wells will flow once completed. lol!

I'm surprised we haven't had a RNS confirming the A7 Deep Well has spud.

Proper Op's Update tomorrow?

A3B sold = bigger dividend.

Keep the 85% WI = more production more income.

A win win.

'wouldn't'