Member Info for somm

DaisyDo,

I'll leave the below RNS statement with you to think over and what you are actually saying.

''Oil sales BEFORE the FULL PRODUCTION licences are issued:

During the initial periods of the NEW Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep licences ALL PRODUCTION is to be SOLD on the DOMESTIC MARKET and at domestic prices.''

These are the two NEW license requirements that stipulate oil must be sold on the domestic market from these two licenses. What you are saying is they can not export any oil from the future deep wells A9-A10-A11, but they can export previously drilled e.g. A5/ A6/ 802/ 803 deep oil - Uh?

Think about it, they can't have 2 different deep licenses for the same deep structure, the EM would not give a separate license per deep well. These two NEW 25 year licenses agreements would override any previous BNG deep license(s). imo.

DaisyDo,

All oil production from Yelemes Deep and Airshagyl has to be sold into the domestic market not the export market until their 25 year licenses have been awarded, CASP have 2 and 3 years to drill the 3 and 2 new wells respectively first.

Just to add:

''Yelemes Deep

Deep Well 803, which had an original planned total depth of 4,500 meters with a primary target at a depth of 3,950 meters and a secondary target at a depth of 4,200 meters, was drilled to a depth of 3,420 meters before work paused towards the end of 2024 for the renewal of the licence. At that time the well had produced for a short period of time at rates of up to 500 bopd from a 10 meter perforated interval within a wider 60 meter interval showing indications of oil between depths of 3,360 and 3,420 meters.

Work is underway to install a pump to resume production from this interval.''

It looks like they won't be drilling the 803 Deep Well any deeper than 3,420m with installing a pump to pump oil from the 10m net perforated interval (will they perforate any of the remaining 50m interval before using the pump in the meantime?).

The 803 Deep Well is classed as a deep well even though they didn't drill below the salt layer so will have gone towards the overall deep well count to obtain the YD 25 year license.

The next three deep wells drilled on YD will have to be surely fast tracked to meet the two year completion deadline, along with the 804 Deep Well we may see another YD well spud this year re the 805 Deep Well?

At some point starting from Q2 we could see the A6/ 804/ P2 and the second WS shallow well all drilling simultaneously with results going into Q3-4.

Once the rigs are freed up we could also see the 805 Deep Well spud this year too (they have a rig still to be allocated to the A6 Deep Well leaving another rig to dust off (5 rigs)), I think the other deep wells will be kicked into 2027 re A5 - A7 - A9 - (805?) 806..........I wonder if they have to also complete the A7 Deep Well (as well as the three new Airshagyl deep wells) to get the 25 year Airshagyl license?

No doubt the two Akkaduk deep wells on Block 8 will be tested this year to boot, will we see reserves booked on the two Block 8 structures this year?

I can't help but think that production is going to be much higher than previous levels by YE. :- )

The oil will be trucked as it has been to a local refinery and will eventually be trucked to the caspian/ chinese pipeline once they have full BNG production licenses.

B8 oil being exported should be sooner, all depends on the price if oil and net profit after taxes.

I doubt we'll see oil exported if the oil price is below $70-$80 pb as there's a tight profit margin if any.

There's hundreds od millions of barrels sat on the water and storage containers are a full, so there will be an oil price crash to $50 pb imo when they hit the market.

BNG exported oil is years away if you read the RNS's.

B8 exported oil?

Yes it is DaisyDo and it has a 36km structure........there will be others too no doubt.

Yelemes Deep

A two-year appraisal licence has been issued during which additions to state confirmed reserves on the basis of further drilling is permitted.

The RNS on 30 December 2025 stated:

''A requirement during the initial two year period to be eligible for the award of a full 25-year production licence is that three further deep wells each with an expected maximum depth of 5,000 meters are drilled.''

CASP plan on drilling the 804 Deep Well on YD before the of Q2.

3 deep YD wells have to be drilled to 5,000m before the end of next year to qualify for a 25 year license. If the start drilling by the end of June they would have to complete all three wells on average within 6 months each - has any BNG deep well been drilled to 5,000m within 6 months?

ATM they have 2 spare rigs (one will be for the A6 sidetrack) so they could use the other rig to drill two well together i.e. 804/ 805 and the 806 next year completing before YE.

YD production is to be sold to the domestic market, but when these two new YD deep wells have completed next year (and 25 year license issued) the oil will be sold into the export market no doubt (same with Airshagyl once the two new deep wells have completed and the 25 year licenses has been issued) - B8/ WS oil - I'm not sure if both licenses oil has to be sold into the domestic market too for the time being (I think B8 oil has previously been sold into the export market)? I think I read somewhere that WS oil has to be sold domestically for now.

Yelemes Deep is going to be busy......get cracking the whip Clive.

CASP can export their oil through the chinese pipeline and have said they would but oil had to be around $100 pboo for it to be worth exporting as they get circ. the same net profit after taxes for local sales at around $80 pboo ($32-$36 net). We could see CASP start to export oil, but by the time they start producing oil (April) the price of oil could be back below $80 pboo, their trading company could getter a better oil price increasing the net profit margin between export and local oil sales, however this trading window could be short lived as the Irainian war may only last another month and the Strait of Hormuz is back open.

803/ WS oil production could happen quite soon with both wells in the process of having pumps fitted with a P1 well 6m interval test update due to boot, further WS testing is expected to significantly increase flow rates over 300 bopd.

It's going to be tight re production news before/ after 6 April.

The New Norm,

It took the G70 rig to drill the A7 Deep Well circ. 4 months to drill down to 2,150m, the well has a TD of 5,300m, so like for like it would take around 10 months to complete the well.

To drill the new YD 804 Deep Well to 5,000m if spud this next month would take imo close to Xmas to hit TD going by the A7Deep Well.

The A7 Deep Well has an initial Jurassic interval target at 4,000m.

I now think the only new oil we'll see in the short term will be from the P1 Deep Well - hopefully after 6 April.

Once again the can has been kicked down the road to later in Q2 re new oil/ spuds.

As I've opinioned before I don't expect to see the CE lift anchor yet with Russian boats/ terminals on the Caspian Sea being blown up by the Ukrainians (we might get an RNS confirming a contract(s) has been signed though) so another can kicked down the road.

WRT licenses, spuds, sidetracks and new oil (apart from P1) etc. all operational results are looking to kick in in Q3/ Q4. imo.

Some further realism needed I'm afraid.

JoeSoap,

Yep, as I said in my previous not so sanguine post on the 4th of March, which was pretty much bang on per se my forward thinking, evidenced with the latest RNS's current/ forward drilling plans. I could go into WS's mind melting goal post moving drilling depths and A6 Deep Well rig availability statements etc., but what's the point...........

I'm really hoping there's no more news out before 6 April so I can B&B another near on million shares or so into my tax free ISA again, this 6th of  April hoping has become a bit of a daja vu over the past several years re 6 April B&Bing. lol.

The share price can lift off thereafter, 2p atm is perfect for share transfers re tax free multi bagging profits later this year.

Q; Why not drill the current WS shallow well deeper from 2,250m to the initial Triassic interval target at 2,600m now instead of drilling a new well to see if the Triassic flows with a 3,400m TD or is that a 3,000m TD (a bit of sarcasm there), that way they'll know if the 2,600m Triassic interval flows saving time and money drilling a new well? BTW packers can cut off the current 2,250m flowing Jurassic perforated drilled section as they've done with other wells, 801/ A8/ other shallow wells etc.........

1 rig on WS

1 rig on B8

1 rig to drill a new YD well (804 Deep Well) with the 'hired' G70 rig. One of the two new wells that have to be drilled within the next 2 years, but why not finish drilling the A7 Deep Well with the G70 rig (3-4 months to finish) and use another rig to drill the new 804 Deep Well (7-8 months to finish to 5,000m)? I'm going to stop there as I get pi zzed off with their swings and roundabout drilling plans. This leaves 2 rigs to dust off after two years of hibernation - so wtf are they talking about re sidetracking the A6 Deep Well - when there's an available rig (they've had years to sort rig availability and the cash since early last year), they could use the 5th rig to sidetrack the A5 Deep Well to boot, but no mention of their best well also being sidetracked when a rig becomes available, cough - I can see both of these wells being kicked into 2H.

The 804 Deep Well hitting TD by the end of Q3? Is Carver having another giraffe - more like November/ December imo.

Re communication between CASP's directors I'm just wondering if Shin is playing footsie with Carver's operational knowledge as RNS's rarely match what the previous RNS states.

Sunday dinner beckons............

To add:

WRT the next well(s) to be updated on re production are the 803/ P1/ P2/ WS wells, after these well updates there's not going to be any new oil flowing from any other well for at least 4 months from work commencing (so perhaps 5-6 months from now the WS Triassic well might be the next well to flow, imo), unless the Akadukk license is signed off this/ next month enabling the 2 deep wells pending flow tests come online - which is out of CASP's hands.

Each deep wells spud/ sidetrack is realistically going to take 4-8 months to hit TD from when the drill bit starts turning re A5 - A6 - A7...A9 - A10 - A11.... same on YD / B8/ WS re new wells. Obviously looking ahead there's going to be a lull with any new production being announced - probably going into Q3 at the earliest. 

In the meantime we will be reliant on potential production/ production increases coming from the 803/ P1/ P2/ WS wells along with mining and charter news - with another acquisition to boot?

Hopefully we'll see new spuds coming from WS and the first new YD deep well before Q3 is here (and a new deep Airshagyl well by YE?), with the A5-A6 Deep Wells sidetracks to boot.

CASP said they were targeting at least 2 Triassic intervals at WS with a well cost of $3m and a TD at 2,660m -  the cost of the new well with at least 2 Triassic intervals between 2,600m and the newly extended depth of 3,400m will likely cost around $4m. 

The next RNS will probably be regarding the West Shalva license and the issue of 99,206,349 new ordinary shares, in addition CASP will pay the vendor $5m from production revenue that will have started to kick in now - note if CASP can flow 450 bopd it would take approx. 1 year to pay the $5m off or 6 months at 900 bopd - so CASP will have no revenue from this WS well for a while yet - roll on 803/ WS/ B8 production in the meantime.

Will we see another $14m charter announced shortly or will we have to wait until after the Ukraine-Russia/ US-Iran wars? I think a CE charter will be put on hold for now with Caspian Sea terminals being blown up recently. imo.

Un,

It's not that the current 300 bopd is unsignificant it's the fact that this 5m Jurassic interval actually flows commercial quantities of oil, which will lead to booking reserves from a potentially 80m boo, like I've said potentially doubling the BNG shallow reserves, in effect valuing the WS license way over the $88m shallows price tag once it's been proved up with other Jurassic wells and Triassic wells to boot.

CASP are now capable of producing oil from at least 4 structures with each having multiple zones (Jurassic/ Triassic etc.) that could have OIP/ reserves booked 'without' producing any oil (e.g. look at JOG which is years from flowing any oil) obviously producing oil is key in lifting the share price and by my estimates CASP could already flow 10,000 bopd if their current drilled wells flowed, double that with the 5 additional planned BNG deep wells.

Combined production from B8/ WS/ YD/ Airshagyl is coming in the 000's bopd and multiple quantities of reserves will be booked from these licenses, which will then lead to the end game. imo.

.

''we plan now to continue to produce from this well with a new well targeting the triassic expected to be spudded in h1 2026.''

why not drill another circ. 1,200m to the extended 3,400m depth and mix the triassic oil with the shallower jurassic oil now that the jurassic oil is flowing and is expected to increase 'significantly'? why not continue to drill another 1,200m down or so to see if the triassic does indeed have live moveable oil instead of drilling another well to 3,400m costing more and taking up the rigs availability? if the triassic doesn't flow then they will have at least saved time and money, spend another $1m now drilling further down  instead of $4m on a new well later. afterall they had originally planned to drill into a triassic interval at 2,600m (perhaps they don't want to risk ****ing up the well especially if it may eventually flow at 500-1,000 bopd - with other 'jurassic' wells drilled to this interval?. 

one thing springs to mind given their decision to drill another well to save any complications with this commercially flowing 5m interval is will they drill another well below the salt layer wrt the 803 deep well in order to protect the oil flowing from a 60m gross/ 15m net oil interval above he salt layer?

it looks to me like the rig availability is going to come under pressure especially as the a7 deep well needs to be completed (a5/a6?) and drill 2 other deep well within three years, and regarding the yelemes deep structure there's a requirement over the next two year period (to be eligible for the award of a full 25-year production license) is that three further deep wells each with an expected maximum depth of 5,000 meters are drilled (and complete 802/ 802?).

will casp have to buy more rigs or partner will a major who have spare rigs?

casp say they can start trading oil again on the back of the 300 bopd so why have they stopped pumping the p2's 864 bopd, is the p2 well producing again? has the p1 deep well started testing yet after being sidetracked due to a poor cement job?

and where are they with testing the 803 deep well? it's been 3 months since they said ''rns 3 december 2025: accordingly, the group intends now to resume work at deep well 803 where oil was previously detected over a 60 meter interval at depths between 3,360 and 3,420 meters.''.

a broad op's update would be nice mr. c.

Yeah, the 1.25m/ 750k seller(s) must be sat down with their head in their hands, chuckle.

I'm not happy though as it looks like I'll be transferring a lot less shares over into my fund and shares ISA as hoped for come 6 April 😭😭😭

DM,

Yeah, though the potential 100m-400m barrels of oil they've estimated Block 8 could have may have dropped significantly with the third structure being kicked into touch.

Thus far we know the sholkara structure has commercial flow rates with Akadukk yet to be tested from the two wells that have been drilled.

More reserves to book in the near term (1-2yrs?) in addition to Airshagyl's booked 26m boo from WS/ Sholkana structure/ Akadukk structure/ Yelemes Deep structure and a reserves upgrade at Airshagyl.

YD = 500 bopd thus far - further testing results due anytime.

B8 = 846 +250 bopd thus far, P1 new flow rate update due anytime.

WS = 300 bopd thus far soon to increase as the warmer weather sets in.

Akadukk's 2 wells X? bopd each? new license due 1H?

These wells flow rates are expected to increase and we know Airshagyl can flow thousands of barrels a day - A5/ A6/ A7 -A9/ A10 Deep Wells to see new drilling commence 1H.

As posted several times CASP have many irons in the fire and as we've seen today significant news can drop at anytime, those who have sold last/ this week must swimming in tears.

Another couple of $14m charters or P1 / 803 updates next - sell now hmm, do you feel lucky? or in the case of Waytolooose....unlucky punk?

One thing they never said was oil flowed freely to surface so weather proofing could probably mean they're using a heat pump.... or lagging around the casing ;-)

It's looking good for the Triassic flowing, if the Triassic interval(s) flows the 80m barrel estimate could double the previous BNG shallow reservoirs barrels.

We now have 4 structures flowing commercial quantities of oil with Akadukk waiting to test 2 deep wells in the wings.

I did say any day now and 300 bopd lol.

So they never got to drill into the 2,600m Triassic target or their 3,000m TD afterall.

CASP now have a potentially 80m barrel shallow reservoir on their hands Triassic allowing.

So another spud targeting the Trassic in the next couple if months, in the meantime this 5m shallow intervals 300 bopd is expected to increase 'significantly' :-)

I turn my back for 1 minutes. lol.

P1/ P2 flow results next.

You're insane ;-), I mean who on earth would put their hard earned into an oiler that has so many irons in the fire and will have so many updates to report on throughout the year and in the very short term priced at 2p?

Airshagyl - as well as two new deep wells to be drilled within three years they will have to complete the A7 Deep Well too if they want the 25 year license.

Yelemes Deep - three! new deep wells to be drilled within two years! and finish drilling the 803 Deep Well to 4,500m? and pull the stuck pipe out of the 802 Deep Well too? nevermind the other deep wells to test/ spud on Block 8 and West Shalva shallow wells, not forgeting a bit of mining to do and a couple of charters to book.

Oh what are CASP going to do with such a workload, is a JV on the cards or will CASP go it alone?

I'd better sell............not on your Nelly!

$100 pb?

Near term production from P1/ P2/ 803/ WS should benefit CASP with a prolonged high oil price way into March/ April.

Further testing of these 4 wells completing can't be far off.

Yeah read that one when looking for the P2 intervals thickness, no depth/ thickness?

Why is the P1 sidetrack taking so long? A5/ A6 sidetracks too?

WS update next to boot?

3 months since charter news was expected by 2025 YE?

Soon be 6 April, will the share price still be 2p then, here's to hoping - can do what it likes thereafter.

DM,

We know the P1 Deep Well on Block 8 is testing a 3m interval - do you know what the thickness of the P2 Deep Well interval is that's flowing 846 bopd?

Cheers

P1 sidetrack completing can't be far off as previously posted.

Why has the P2 Deep Well stopped flow testing? pressure buildup? blocked? (Carver said at the GM production had stopped).

Its been nearly three months since we were told CASP would have to do a sidetrack due to a poor cement job.

News due too.