Zeus note10 Jul 2024 15:44
Petro Matad has released a statement ahead of its investor presentation later today,
reiterating the company's full operational activity schedule over the rest of 2024.
Full work programme expected to drive first revenues. Petro Matad's 2024 operational work
programme is expected to begin this month, with activities to complete the Heron-1 well
(including stimulation) and bring the well onstream. First oil is expected in September, with
an estimated initial rate of around 300bbl/d. Production is expected to be trucked to nearby
Petro China facilities for processing and then onward sale in China, with negotiations to
finalise these arrangements also continuing to progress.
Post completion of Heron-1, Petro Matad then plans to drill the Heron-2 development well.
Drilling and completion (including stimulation) of Heron-2 is expected to take place in in Q3
and, on success, production in Q4. Production rates are expected to be similar to Heron-1.
These two wells should establish revenues for Petro Matad, providing cash for redeployment
into the wider business.
Alongside the revenues, production data from Heron wells, including the result of stimulation
activities, should help better define expected resource recovery from the field. While the
current base case for Heron is 33mmbbl gross (Petro Matad holds 100%), an expectation of
higher recovery could see this move to >60mmbbl. As such, there is significant potential
upside if production data can help prove up the upside case, and these two initial wells will
begin to contribute here.
High-impact upside potential from Gobi Bear-1 well. Alongside its Heron development
activities, Petro Matad also plans to drill the Gobi Bear-1 exploration well in late Q3/early Q4.
This is being drilled nearby Heron, with the existing Heron and Gazelle drilling helping prove
up the regional petroleum system and potential reservoir for Gobi Bear. On success,
development of Gobi Bear could potentially progress in conjunction with Heron.
Our base case resource target for Gobi Bear is 55mmbbl, which we value at 1.5p risked
(14.6p unrisked). As with Heron, there is potential for upside on higher recovery, and in this
case we use a 92mmbbl resource target, which we value at 2.3p risked (23.1p unrisked). Gobi
Bear-1 is planned to be drilled for CAPEX of around US$1.5m, giving a substantial
asymmetric risk/reward opportunity, and completing the busy 2024 work programme.
More widely, Petro Matad also expects formal signature of two new Mongolia exploration
licences in late 2024/early 2025, alongside progressing its renewables business (including
the focus Choir BESS and Oyu Tolgoi hydrogen projects