RE: OH DEAR8 Feb 2021 15:01
First invested last sept when some cash became available, though I've followed news off and on for a few years. Sadly cash wasn't available for the March opportunity (of a decade?).
Back in Sept what attracted me were a) the clear plan to advance alpala to monetisation, and b) the renewal of regional drilling. Being a geo I can see the regional potential is huge, though so many targets come with difficult choices for the company and a potential cash sink.
It's been a surprisingly wild ride since then, especially giving lots ponder on the Board members and relationships with other stakeholders.
The last two RNS make me feel SOLG opening a new chapter, with NEDS making a big difference for the better. Someway to go, new CEO is a big decision, but I feel greater clarity will come.
But I have some big uncertainties around my investment just now.
Cascabel clearly needs s lot of work. Perhaps the recent ( unknown) geotechnical drilling results have fed into the block cave design with impact on costs/risks? What is clear is that the block cave mine is so risky and demanding of capital that other starting routes for mining in Cascabel need checking out. I find Irwin's Friday tweet to the effect that "I wouldn't have started from here" encouraging that stakeholders are getting towards an agreed strategy to find that cheaper to less risky way to start earning a return on Cascabel.
But we don't have a defined open-pittable resource, just some promising straws in the wind. So more time, money, drilling needed. The regionals also eat money to turn them into resources, and the more tier one potential targets, the more money is needed to prove them.
So my key question to myself, and to knowledgeable posters, is when is the next cash raise, how much, and at what share price?
Right now my gut feeling says cash raise within 4 months, for a lot (£100m?) and at a share price of no more than 21p and possibly in the 15-20p range.
I do expect upside from drilling. And I agree that there is a backdrop for corporate action, but for me takeover and the like need more concrete evidence to make them more than a small part of my personal investment case.
So interested in knowledgeable speculation on coming cash raise ...