Roughly 52m according to last woodford tr1, but i personally cant see that being put onto the open market for PI’s to get at, the mcap vs NAV is already unbelievable, dumping that amount without a buyer would surely (but temporarily) floor the price and hardly be even a half reasonable return for the woodford fund investors but would present an amazing buy. My thoughts are there is a mexican standoff between a few II’s waiting to time woody out to get price as low as possible then see who moves first to take his stake. Wish i had more funds, especially at the moment as ALM is off the map of the ‘herd’ and fomo group and only being watched by those who have researched... interesting but painful to be a holder at the moment, but once he’s gone we should be all good as fundamentals are sound
Thanks Giggs and good post Scoutt, i worry the same but like you and im watching what CA’s next move is with interest, im not sure he would take all of woody’s stock but then who knows, id been thinking maybe a joint buyout of woody between CA and ALM. Id sooner see the hawkeye profits be used for this than line woodys pockets with the divi. Maybe the timing of the sale is strategic, as I understand woody will be under a lot of pressure to raise cash in December when his funds open up, selling his ~20% of ALM back to ALM and CA will give him much needed cash flow I reckon. Once he’s gone we should rerate significantly imo
No mate, and I'm surprised a little as i understood from the communications that they are hoping to get the sale approved, through and paid out in Q4 this year so I wonder if there are more discussion going on, cleary most not happy with the general principles of the sale inc crystal amber so who knows, for obvious reason we are somewhat of a ‘political share’ at the moment with some big players and influencers ... (i personally would have preferred to have held hawkeye longer as i think it has more value in the medium term from now).
Pretty sure we’ll get a rise when the div-ex date is announced, well that would be normal but we’ll probably get sold into :)
EGM notice tomorrow? Seems a cheap buy, assuming we go for divi’s at circ 11p, that’s around a 20% return back from an investment at circ 52p in the next couple of months, so any investor is getting Federated Wireless, Spin Memory, etc at 41p/share - seems a no brainier, great tech and I’m buying (averaging down) when I can at this level.....
You're right shake, I dont - neither does anyone else, but the share has been pumped on every cliche there is. On the positive side when FDA does land everyone who currently holds should hopefully be ok
Cash2, youve been here a while like me and i imagine you have a good average like me on a good quantity of shares. We’ve gone from 1p to nearly 7p on nothing really other than the passage of a bit of time. Yes the share will spike high no doubt on FDA which is great, but stonechecker needs the orders to add the value. The FDA is just a bit of paper. Hopefully the orders will follow and flow, it seems good ground work is being made. If at 1p FDA had landed (and it could have). We would have been happy at 6p+, looking towards 20-30 on a good order pipeline. Now everyone has convinced themselves of 25p+ on fda and rising after that without any basis what so ever that I have seen. It sat for months prior to the 1p drop at 2.5-3p and everyone expected FDA news any day then. Whats changed? Not much, we have a sales company working with/for us which is positive and back in october that would have supported the share at 3p....
People need to manage expectations and control FOMO, as I've said a few times the FDA response isn't likely for a few weeks (maybe even as late as september). Yes it may drop earlier, but we arent anything special as far as FDA are concerned and the company just dont know. They amended the software in February, so you should allow 6months after that.
I read somewhere yesterday a ramp along the lines of RENX buy out IQAI, i mean wtf?!?
This is a good share, but has been pumped hard the last week particularly with certain people spouting absolute rubbish, anything to get a 10-15% margin. Loads of people spiked and creating a very unstable overbought share imo, almost verging on having FDA success priced in (exc orders). Craziness and i really feel for those spiked, awful.
Although I think we are a few weeks away yet I know a lot think FDA approval could be any day, looking at the FDA devices website they seem to only update on a sunday night / Monday morning with the entire previous week, I guess this is to give a company the chance to announce it prior to them publishing it. But if by some luck it is in, tomorrow would be the day to beat the FDA publishing it.
Just speculation but looking at these big numbers going through today and yesterday it seems like most were likely buys, £75ks worth roughly i reckon. But they are going through at a very competitive price point for the market at the time considering the relative magnitude. Worked for sure, but I know as a PI who has traded large numbers at times ive never had a favour done on it.... if anyone know how you do that please let me know!!
Im considering an entry here as I thought the news today was good. Ive done some research and the tech is right up my street, but holding back as I cant understand why this has ended the way it has? Can anyone give an insight, granted i haven't read as much as i should have.
You never know, tomorrow maybe a delayed rise and i’ll miss this entry...!