Member Info for Smythery

Lenin - BMD “generates investor interest” by leaking non public information. It is illegal and were AIM properly regulated it wouldn’t happen. Reabold wouldn’t do this for obvious reasons.

I still can’t see anything on his Twitter account about West Newton though.

Where is BMD saying this? I can see a Tweet from him on Wressle but nothing on WN? He very obviously has someone at UJO feeding him info, which is why he was all over Twitter on West Newton progress but has has nothing on the rest of RBD’s business

Thanks Jack - absolutely, I thought the sale would be done long since. I underestimated how long it would take the buyer to complete its due diligence (my fault, big oil is nothing if not slow) but in fairness pretty much everyone else who guessed got it wrong too. But by trying to completely change the argument should I read that you are admitting that you both misunderstood and misrepresented my statements earlier today around Victory NPV vs sale price? Because you did, and harking back to predictions on sale timing doesn’t change that.

Jack - beginning to wonder if you can read? Have another go at what I wrote, slowly this time, and you’ll see that my point was not that the NPV is not a useful indicator of value, but that you can’t take the NPV and apply the forward gas price and think you’ll get to a number which is anything like what a buyer will actually pay.

Deemule - I don’t much care if you think I’m a holder or not, but I am, and am willing to bet I’m in this share deeper than most. That doesn’t mean I’m deluded about the potential sale price of Victory though, and it’s going to be frustrating when the price comes in as a few tens of millions for RBD, as there will be many people claiming management have undersold the asset, whereas in fact it’s their own assumptions which are utterly unrealistic. I very much hope I’m wrong and it sells for megabucks, but I don’t think it will. Happy to hear about any recent comparable transactions that suggest otherwise. Fire away.

Jackdiamonds - I didn’t say NPV was irrelevant did I? In future please keep your critiques to statements which people have actually made.

Truthfactory - no-one sells forward 2024/25 gas, there is almost no liquidity that far out. And you certainly don’t sell forward when you haven’t yet started to produce, it would be absolute madness. Any delays to first gas and you’d be stuck fulfilling your supply contract on the wholesale market at huge expense.

Countryman - please, show me evidence of anyone paying >£100m for an undeveloped gas project in the North Sea, Norwegian continental shelf or anywhere else. Victory is not going to produce gas before 2024/25, if - and this is absolutely key - it ever does. Because this is not a sure thing, and a buyer will not pay up assuming it will definitely produce, it will be risked appropriately. It’s also not a huge project by any means. I am as keen as the next person (I suspect more so) for a good sale price, but people taking the NPV and applying the current forward gas price or anything even close have absolutely no idea

Persimmon- you’re not even trying any more.

As RBD shareholders we’ve had to put up with a lot of delays, feels like pretty much everything to do with this investment case has taken longer than hoped/guided. But we have no control over how long this bit takes - big oil companies aren’t know for their speed, especially not for a deal like this which will be relatively small for them, so we just have to wait. I also thought we’d be done by now, but the announcement has to coke soon and this share price is a gift. Topping up now is an absolute no brainer.

All very reasonable. I personally think we get tens of millions of proceeds net to RBD, so I think there will be capacity - but will depend on where the shares go on the sale as to whether a buyback makes sense or not vs other uses of cash

I don’t believe you.
You say Victory is only worth £15m
You say West Newton is worthless
You hate management
You’ve been saying a placement is imminent for months
Based on the above nobody vaguely sane would hold shares, yet when they went comfortably above your (supposed) exit price of 0.4 you (supposedly) didn’t sell.
You are either lying about holding shares, or stupid to hold shares which (according to you) have no investment case or upside. Which is it?

Jesus wept. This is a micro-cap oil company, not Shell. The only things that matter for my timeframe are the price for Victory, the use of proceeds, and West Newton. All else is irrelevant, especially your witterings. I guess we’ll see who’s embarrassed themselves when we get the Victory price. You said £15m. Let’s see.

Your mania for focusing on irrelevancies borders on the pathological. The resolutions passed, there isn’t another AGM for a year, so no one cares.

Anyway, at least I know that you didn’t go, no doubt because you don’t own any shares. Which makes you a truly tragic individual, given the amount of time you spend on this board.

Large amount of people on this board hating on management for their strategy, delivery, communication and so on. Did any of these, or indeed anyone else, actually do to the AGM?

Why Uggy?

Cash through the door for Victory will boost the share and may even shut Persimmon up about the capital raise he’s been saying will come any day now for at least 12 months. Then happy for them to invest enough in West Newton to get it to a saleable situation, which should be H122. Could use some of the excess for buybacks.

What is wrong with you two (one??)? It literally says oil multiple time in the annual report, there is not one mention of condensate anywhere in the whole document, let alone related to WN. Where are you getting this from?

Or you can just read the annual report, where there are multiple references to the oil column at West Newton (page 8 and 9 for example). My point was merely that the liquids are still there, but they’re not the initial focus of the development. It’s not difficult to understand.

The oil is still there, but this is going to be a gas development, at least at first. Subsequent development/wells can target the oil. If all goes to plan though that won’t be a matter for RBD, as will be sold out by then

That’s weird - would have thought they’d be doing their well analysis and site development planning on a picnic blanket right by the WN front gates. At least then they could have waved at you when you didn’t visit the site looking for tumbleweed

I’m sure they do, but this stage of the process is entirely driven by the buyer and not the seller, nothing RBD can do to speed things along at this stage. So we wait for them to finish their due diligence on Corallian shareholders. But we do have the 31st August completion date - completion not agreement - backstop which tells us the outside timeframe for getting to that stage. To reach that an agreement will have to come well before