We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I assume that 11% return is Victory based on the £7.5m and the £12.7m, meaning you are yet another person who doesn’t understand numbers, unless you think the additional licenses we got from Corallian are worthless. They are not.
Jesus GP, not you as well. We didn’t just get £12.7m for £7.5m invested, we also got the other Corallian licences, have you looked at the presentation on them? They are worth a lot. The return made just on Victory, excluding the value of the other licences, will prob be 5x IC
As I’ve argued all along, plugging in forward curves to NPV numbers for a small undeveloped gas project was never close to realistic, nor were the posters who claimed the sale price would change mid-process as a result of increases in gas prices since Feb. Could RBD have binned the process and reopened it in the hope of a better price? Perhaps, but recall it started in Oct 21 so this would have added months with no guarantees of a better price. They took the sale that was on offer, at a price we all wish was higher but which has secured the future of the company.
We now have proof of concept that RBD can pick viable projects, which is vital. When adjusting for the other licences, which it’s clear have real value and are far more so since the Truss announcements, the sale price for Victory will be multiples of invested capital.
RBD now have cash to progress these other licences to farm down/sale and WN to sale in a dramatically better commodity and political/regulatory backdrop than when Victory sale process began.
RBD were never going to develop WN themselves, just progress it - with Victory cash they absolutely do not need to raise. We have proof of concept and cash to get the portfolio to further asset sales at higher prices within 6m or so. This is the beginning not the end, and 2-3p within 12m is still the target.
S.
They get £12.7m back plus all the other licences, which they are valuable and RBD can now look to progress. The uplift on capital for Victory itself will be multiples of what they invested.
I warned all along that people getting excited about NPV and forward gas prices on an undeveloped project were getting miles ahead of themselves, though admittedly I’d also hoped for somewhat higher proceeds than this. But we now have proof of concept that RBD can pick viable projects, which is absolutely key, and no less importantly have cash to progress multiple other UK assets in a dramatically better commodity and political/regulatory backdrop than when Victory sale process began.
The buyer is described as “credible”, which means big. In my view Kistos at c£400m market cap is too small to be considered a credible buyer. I thus remain convinced it’s Total, developing Victory will help backfill the system and delay decommissioning, thus delivering a large NPV benefit for a small (for them) outlay. We’ll find out soon anyway - I reckon literally any day now
I was thinking how an inordinate amount of time on this board is spent discussing Persimmon, or responding to him. I am as guilty as any. It has to stop.
He posts almost exclusively complete rubbish, then rarely if ever engages to defend himself against counterarguments. He is not presenting an alternative view, he is nothing but a troll, and a basic one at that.
I tell my six year old that if someone in her class is annoying her she should ignore them and they’ll get bored and go away. We should do the same - zero acknowledgment, zero engagement, as if he’s not even there. Let’s keep the discussion to people who care about this stock and want to debate it sensibly and properly.
Not just removed, completely reversed. We are selling one UK gas project and at the same time getting a load of other attractive licences, just as the UK exploration backdrop shifts to strongly supportive for the first time in years. Interest in farming in to them will have taken a quantum leap in recent days. And we have WN too
Can’t see why it would be West Newton, nothing happening there until we have cash from Victory to order the kit. UJO up on H1 report yday, UK SMID oil getting a Truss bid today. Also v good chance we get Victory news next week I think. Has to be very soon.
What I didn’t really understand is that Persi’s incisive analysis of potential share price reactions to the Victory sale didn’t seem to influenced at all by what price it was actually sold for. Call me old-fashioned, but I personally think the sale price will be important…..
Persi - as a fully paid up member of the “ramping community” (your words) or someone who has weighed the investment case and thinks it has upside (everyone else’s words) I would love to give you flak. However I’ve read your post several times and I genuinely have no idea what you’re on about about. Are you saying that when we sell Victory the share price will either rise to 0.4p, rise above 0.4p and then retrace to 0.4p, or go above 0.4p and sustain a higher level but only if we pay a dividend? I think that’s what the 12.11 post is saying, but it’s so badly written I can’t be sure. Please clarify.
Truss announcements will undoubtedly help with selling the other Corallian licences and West Newton. But RBD can’t get going on either until the Victory sale is confirmed. The timing of that will determine the next set of announcements from our boys, not the timing of Truss’s speech
Jesus wept. You clearly have absolutely no idea about deal negotiations. How exactly are RBD supposed to give guidance on progress or timeframes? They have gone through several months of progress, that much is obvious and doesn’t need stating, and the deal will be done when the buyer is satisfied on all points. The buyer controls progress, and completion. I’m sure RBD have a view on when it will complete, but equally sure they’re not going to risk antagonising the buyer by making it public. They had two choices today - no RNS at all (which would mean negotiations still ongoing) or an RNS specifically confirming negotiations are still ongoing and nothing else. They did the latter, which is preferable. Next.
Try and be consistent Persi - you continually bang on about current gas prices having no bearing at all on Victory valuation given it won’t produce before 2024 (you are incorrect about it having no bearing), yet are also posting about the day ahead gas price falling, quite obviously as a negative spin. Transparent.
Once again, if there’s no RNS tomorrow then the sale has not been postponed, it just means negotiations are dragging on. If negotiations had ended, however, then we’d definitely get an RNS, so if there’s no RNS then the sale is still on. And I think we can agree that after 3 months progress the buyer is unlikely to then pull out, especially with this price/political backdrop
“I think that we can safely conclude that the owners of the pipeline infra-structure tie in (Total) are not interested”
Put that one in the bank. We know the buyer is “credible”, which means big. Total is the big player with the most to gain from an extended life of the system it operates. So Persi concludes it’s definitely not Total, based on…..?
We’ve got several additional UK gas development ops to farm down/sell following Victory, and you think that a step change in Government support for domestic exploration and production isn’t a relevant positive for that story? Pathetic Persi, even for you.
I set out clearly why your post shows you don’t understand the forward markets. It really is very childish to respond that it is me that doesn’t understand forward prices with absolutely nothing to back it up. It’s the sort of thing a five year old would do.