Member Info for Smythery

They get £12.7m back plus all the other licences, which they are valuable and RBD can now look to progress. The uplift on capital for Victory itself will be multiples of what they invested.

I warned all along that people getting excited about NPV and forward gas prices on an undeveloped project were getting miles ahead of themselves, though admittedly I’d also hoped for somewhat higher proceeds than this. But we now have proof of concept that RBD can pick viable projects, which is absolutely key, and no less importantly have cash to progress multiple other UK assets in a dramatically better commodity and political/regulatory backdrop than when Victory sale process began.

Much longer than that, sale process on for 8+ months (and we’ll before the Ukraine situation/change in UK govt policy)

The buyer is described as “credible”, which means big. In my view Kistos at c£400m market cap is too small to be considered a credible buyer. I thus remain convinced it’s Total, developing Victory will help backfill the system and delay decommissioning, thus delivering a large NPV benefit for a small (for them) outlay. We’ll find out soon anyway - I reckon literally any day now

I was thinking how an inordinate amount of time on this board is spent discussing Persimmon, or responding to him. I am as guilty as any. It has to stop.

He posts almost exclusively complete rubbish, then rarely if ever engages to defend himself against counterarguments. He is not presenting an alternative view, he is nothing but a troll, and a basic one at that.

I tell my six year old that if someone in her class is annoying her she should ignore them and they’ll get bored and go away. We should do the same - zero acknowledgment, zero engagement, as if he’s not even there. Let’s keep the discussion to people who care about this stock and want to debate it sensibly and properly.

Not just removed, completely reversed. We are selling one UK gas project and at the same time getting a load of other attractive licences, just as the UK exploration backdrop shifts to strongly supportive for the first time in years. Interest in farming in to them will have taken a quantum leap in recent days. And we have WN too

Can’t see why it would be West Newton, nothing happening there until we have cash from Victory to order the kit. UJO up on H1 report yday, UK SMID oil getting a Truss bid today. Also v good chance we get Victory news next week I think. Has to be very soon.

What I didn’t really understand is that Persi’s incisive analysis of potential share price reactions to the Victory sale didn’t seem to influenced at all by what price it was actually sold for. Call me old-fashioned, but I personally think the sale price will be important…..

Persi - as a fully paid up member of the “ramping community” (your words) or someone who has weighed the investment case and thinks it has upside (everyone else’s words) I would love to give you flak. However I’ve read your post several times and I genuinely have no idea what you’re on about about. Are you saying that when we sell Victory the share price will either rise to 0.4p, rise above 0.4p and then retrace to 0.4p, or go above 0.4p and sustain a higher level but only if we pay a dividend? I think that’s what the 12.11 post is saying, but it’s so badly written I can’t be sure. Please clarify.

Truss announcements will undoubtedly help with selling the other Corallian licences and West Newton. But RBD can’t get going on either until the Victory sale is confirmed. The timing of that will determine the next set of announcements from our boys, not the timing of Truss’s speech

Jesus wept. You clearly have absolutely no idea about deal negotiations. How exactly are RBD supposed to give guidance on progress or timeframes? They have gone through several months of progress, that much is obvious and doesn’t need stating, and the deal will be done when the buyer is satisfied on all points. The buyer controls progress, and completion. I’m sure RBD have a view on when it will complete, but equally sure they’re not going to risk antagonising the buyer by making it public. They had two choices today - no RNS at all (which would mean negotiations still ongoing) or an RNS specifically confirming negotiations are still ongoing and nothing else. They did the latter, which is preferable. Next.

Try and be consistent Persi - you continually bang on about current gas prices having no bearing at all on Victory valuation given it won’t produce before 2024 (you are incorrect about it having no bearing), yet are also posting about the day ahead gas price falling, quite obviously as a negative spin. Transparent.

Once again, if there’s no RNS tomorrow then the sale has not been postponed, it just means negotiations are dragging on. If negotiations had ended, however, then we’d definitely get an RNS, so if there’s no RNS then the sale is still on. And I think we can agree that after 3 months progress the buyer is unlikely to then pull out, especially with this price/political backdrop

“I think that we can safely conclude that the owners of the pipeline infra-structure tie in (Total) are not interested”

Put that one in the bank. We know the buyer is “credible”, which means big. Total is the big player with the most to gain from an extended life of the system it operates. So Persi concludes it’s definitely not Total, based on…..?

We’ve got several additional UK gas development ops to farm down/sell following Victory, and you think that a step change in Government support for domestic exploration and production isn’t a relevant positive for that story? Pathetic Persi, even for you.

I set out clearly why your post shows you don’t understand the forward markets. It really is very childish to respond that it is me that doesn’t understand forward prices with absolutely nothing to back it up. It’s the sort of thing a five year old would do.

Persi embarrasses himself yet again. “40 years of investing” of you’ve never heard of forward prices? We have a good view of gas prices in 2023, forwards are liquid and you can sell forward, price is 583p/therm currently. However end 24/early 25 (when Victory first produces) is another matter, no liquidity at all. Fair to say if uk/eu gas is still at current levels in 2024/25 then economically Europe is absolutely screwed.

I repeat my earlier points - no-one is buying an undeveloped 2024/25 delivery uk gas project using anything like current gas prices (either spot or 2023 forward). The move in gas prices recently will not have impacted the price for Victory, which was highly likely to be fixed or close to when the initial offer was received. We will get enough money through the door to support shares, hopefully with some upside, and certainly to fund us for WN prove-up ahead of sale + sale of other licences.

My main concern is that people expecting fanciful numbers in the £100s of millions for Victory see the eventual sale price as disappointing and impact performance - I’d be very happy if we’re even close to 1p post Victory announcement but I doubt it. However 3p in 12-18m time is a credible bull case.

Looking forward to your response Persi. We all remember that at 0.1p last Dec you said the shares were going lower.

Of course we don’t know Truthfactory, but as investors our job is to make considered judgements in order to identify opportunities. The above is mine.

That makes no sense at all - as has been discussed on here many times, RBD directors own a lot of stock and some bought amounts worth many times their annual pay. They are more incentivised than most to get the share price back up. Not even you can really think they would endanger such an important / critical deal by deliberately delaying the process to try and get a couple more months of pay, no-one is that stupid. So you’re just trying to make trouble. Corallian directors are also likely in line for a massive payoff on completion so are highly incentivised to get it done. The only ones without much impetus to move quickly are the buyers - clearly they are a big company, and if we’re correct on which one then whilst this will be an important deal for their regional play it will be minuscule on a group scale. It’s frustrating, but clearly the delay has zero to do with RBD actions.

Also that’s not a ramp, it’s just a reiteration of the investment case for anyone who’s interested. Feel free to dispute any of the points I raise with any counter arguments that aren’t completely stupid. If you can.

There will be no obligation to post an update at the end of the month unless something material has happened i.e. the deal is agreed, or talks have ended because the buyer has walked. They might chose to even if neither has happened, but they won’t have to.

If shares fall on a lack of update then obviously you buy, because a lack of update means talks have not ended, and if they’ve not ended then the buyer hasn’t walked away, which means the delay is just the talks dragging on. I freely admit talks have taken (much) longer than I expected, but that’s Big Oil for you. If talks don’t end badly at the end of the month (with a related announcement) they highly, highly likely they will end successfully very soon. Personally I don’t think they’d have gone on for anything like this long if there was a serious problem, as one would have been found long since and talks ended.

On the bigger picture, we are on the cusp of the first proving up of the business model. This will be followed by farm-in/sales of West Newton and the other Corallian licenses in the next 6-12m, against a pricing backdrop / support for Uk production growth magnitudes above what we could have expected before February. You would have to be completely crazy to sell on a lack of update, and indeed if you have capacity to add then you’d also be crazy not to buy more on any related share price fall.

Persi - you’re shouting in capital letters at someone who has blocked you. He cannot see your messages. How exactly do you expect him to answer?