Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Persi embarrasses himself yet again. “40 years of investing” of you’ve never heard of forward prices? We have a good view of gas prices in 2023, forwards are liquid and you can sell forward, price is 583p/therm currently. However end 24/early 25 (when Victory first produces) is another matter, no liquidity at all. Fair to say if uk/eu gas is still at current levels in 2024/25 then economically Europe is absolutely screwed.
I repeat my earlier points - no-one is buying an undeveloped 2024/25 delivery uk gas project using anything like current gas prices (either spot or 2023 forward). The move in gas prices recently will not have impacted the price for Victory, which was highly likely to be fixed or close to when the initial offer was received. We will get enough money through the door to support shares, hopefully with some upside, and certainly to fund us for WN prove-up ahead of sale + sale of other licences.
My main concern is that people expecting fanciful numbers in the £100s of millions for Victory see the eventual sale price as disappointing and impact performance - I’d be very happy if we’re even close to 1p post Victory announcement but I doubt it. However 3p in 12-18m time is a credible bull case.
Looking forward to your response Persi. We all remember that at 0.1p last Dec you said the shares were going lower.
That makes no sense at all - as has been discussed on here many times, RBD directors own a lot of stock and some bought amounts worth many times their annual pay. They are more incentivised than most to get the share price back up. Not even you can really think they would endanger such an important / critical deal by deliberately delaying the process to try and get a couple more months of pay, no-one is that stupid. So you’re just trying to make trouble. Corallian directors are also likely in line for a massive payoff on completion so are highly incentivised to get it done. The only ones without much impetus to move quickly are the buyers - clearly they are a big company, and if we’re correct on which one then whilst this will be an important deal for their regional play it will be minuscule on a group scale. It’s frustrating, but clearly the delay has zero to do with RBD actions.
Also that’s not a ramp, it’s just a reiteration of the investment case for anyone who’s interested. Feel free to dispute any of the points I raise with any counter arguments that aren’t completely stupid. If you can.
There will be no obligation to post an update at the end of the month unless something material has happened i.e. the deal is agreed, or talks have ended because the buyer has walked. They might chose to even if neither has happened, but they won’t have to.
If shares fall on a lack of update then obviously you buy, because a lack of update means talks have not ended, and if they’ve not ended then the buyer hasn’t walked away, which means the delay is just the talks dragging on. I freely admit talks have taken (much) longer than I expected, but that’s Big Oil for you. If talks don’t end badly at the end of the month (with a related announcement) they highly, highly likely they will end successfully very soon. Personally I don’t think they’d have gone on for anything like this long if there was a serious problem, as one would have been found long since and talks ended.
On the bigger picture, we are on the cusp of the first proving up of the business model. This will be followed by farm-in/sales of West Newton and the other Corallian licenses in the next 6-12m, against a pricing backdrop / support for Uk production growth magnitudes above what we could have expected before February. You would have to be completely crazy to sell on a lack of update, and indeed if you have capacity to add then you’d also be crazy not to buy more on any related share price fall.
Lenin - BMD “generates investor interest” by leaking non public information. It is illegal and were AIM properly regulated it wouldn’t happen. Reabold wouldn’t do this for obvious reasons.
I still can’t see anything on his Twitter account about West Newton though.
Where is BMD saying this? I can see a Tweet from him on Wressle but nothing on WN? He very obviously has someone at UJO feeding him info, which is why he was all over Twitter on West Newton progress but has has nothing on the rest of RBD’s business
Thanks Jack - absolutely, I thought the sale would be done long since. I underestimated how long it would take the buyer to complete its due diligence (my fault, big oil is nothing if not slow) but in fairness pretty much everyone else who guessed got it wrong too. But by trying to completely change the argument should I read that you are admitting that you both misunderstood and misrepresented my statements earlier today around Victory NPV vs sale price? Because you did, and harking back to predictions on sale timing doesn’t change that.
Jack - beginning to wonder if you can read? Have another go at what I wrote, slowly this time, and you’ll see that my point was not that the NPV is not a useful indicator of value, but that you can’t take the NPV and apply the forward gas price and think you’ll get to a number which is anything like what a buyer will actually pay.
Deemule - I don’t much care if you think I’m a holder or not, but I am, and am willing to bet I’m in this share deeper than most. That doesn’t mean I’m deluded about the potential sale price of Victory though, and it’s going to be frustrating when the price comes in as a few tens of millions for RBD, as there will be many people claiming management have undersold the asset, whereas in fact it’s their own assumptions which are utterly unrealistic. I very much hope I’m wrong and it sells for megabucks, but I don’t think it will. Happy to hear about any recent comparable transactions that suggest otherwise. Fire away.
Jackdiamonds - I didn’t say NPV was irrelevant did I? In future please keep your critiques to statements which people have actually made.
Truthfactory - no-one sells forward 2024/25 gas, there is almost no liquidity that far out. And you certainly don’t sell forward when you haven’t yet started to produce, it would be absolute madness. Any delays to first gas and you’d be stuck fulfilling your supply contract on the wholesale market at huge expense.
Countryman - please, show me evidence of anyone paying >£100m for an undeveloped gas project in the North Sea, Norwegian continental shelf or anywhere else. Victory is not going to produce gas before 2024/25, if - and this is absolutely key - it ever does. Because this is not a sure thing, and a buyer will not pay up assuming it will definitely produce, it will be risked appropriately. It’s also not a huge project by any means. I am as keen as the next person (I suspect more so) for a good sale price, but people taking the NPV and applying the current forward gas price or anything even close have absolutely no idea
As RBD shareholders we’ve had to put up with a lot of delays, feels like pretty much everything to do with this investment case has taken longer than hoped/guided. But we have no control over how long this bit takes - big oil companies aren’t know for their speed, especially not for a deal like this which will be relatively small for them, so we just have to wait. I also thought we’d be done by now, but the announcement has to coke soon and this share price is a gift. Topping up now is an absolute no brainer.
All very reasonable. I personally think we get tens of millions of proceeds net to RBD, so I think there will be capacity - but will depend on where the shares go on the sale as to whether a buyback makes sense or not vs other uses of cash
I don’t believe you.
You say Victory is only worth £15m
You say West Newton is worthless
You hate management
You’ve been saying a placement is imminent for months
Based on the above nobody vaguely sane would hold shares, yet when they went comfortably above your (supposed) exit price of 0.4 you (supposedly) didn’t sell.
You are either lying about holding shares, or stupid to hold shares which (according to you) have no investment case or upside. Which is it?
Jesus wept. This is a micro-cap oil company, not Shell. The only things that matter for my timeframe are the price for Victory, the use of proceeds, and West Newton. All else is irrelevant, especially your witterings. I guess we’ll see who’s embarrassed themselves when we get the Victory price. You said £15m. Let’s see.
Your mania for focusing on irrelevancies borders on the pathological. The resolutions passed, there isn’t another AGM for a year, so no one cares.
Anyway, at least I know that you didn’t go, no doubt because you don’t own any shares. Which makes you a truly tragic individual, given the amount of time you spend on this board.
Cash through the door for Victory will boost the share and may even shut Persimmon up about the capital raise he’s been saying will come any day now for at least 12 months. Then happy for them to invest enough in West Newton to get it to a saleable situation, which should be H122. Could use some of the excess for buybacks.