Member Info for Smokey2

I hope i am transparent S7, I'm not trying to hide anything.

When fleet was flying i posted as such, when flagging i do the same. I also follow it up with appropriate trades which i also post about. It is my research and i can ignore it at my peril.

Ive stated my case, imo fleet is gonna underperform by some 20% to 30%. Others have corroborated the figures.

Now we may well get that amazing RNS we have all been waiting for for years....That imminent aviation RNS, that licence RNS...
but from past performance, i am betting we won't.

I thought PM regarded fleet as the very thing that underpins our business wrt cashflow.

24,104 units is well below our target of 27 to 30 thousand installs.

This 24,104 by 1/07/2020 is dependant upon past install rate pre corona virus and depends upon nothing interfering with that install rate.

GL with that...

Not all mine DR777.

hmmmm, lewbo, i was trying to explain how the script works and make the point it was automatic.

What exactly is the point you are making? I am trying to give everyone here some information not in the public domain.

I am not doing it to impress anyone lol. it certainly doesn't impress me.....

Some have appeared on Nex DR777. I retain 200,000 from 1.3M @ 3.2.

I will retain these unless we get to 3.2 when i will sell to protect my money.

I have written a perl script that automatically downloads the kms travelled, subtracts the previous days figures then divides by 350 to get an approximation for fleet figures.

It runs via cron at 3am UK time, figures get updated around 230 am and 14:30pm each day.

if you tell me your email i'll email you the script and my figures, you can make your own mind up then.

Yes, it's 23881 units estimated at 1st July 2020 although my graph shows 22.5k.

Slips,

Whatif18's use of a 45 day moving average does not sufficiently take into consideration recent data and is skewed to the previous month.

I am not sure why he isn't calculating daily kms travelled then dividing by a figure to get daily fleet numbers.

The bods 20,551 was max fleet installs at 31st December 2019.

My calculations have no errors.

I wish we were installing 1000/mth Slips but we are not, more like half of that.

W18

What is the reason behind plotting a 45 day kms moving average rather than implied units? I'm not sure it shows anything useful regarding units installed or offers any way to predict units installed.

The graph is tiny yes. It was the only way I could include data from November/December 2019 all the way to 1st July 2020.

Cella,

PM did indeed imply 2nd half would be much better than first half but i am not seeing any of it.

I wonder why they removed the link to actual installs?

Cmon Esc, I've given you all the data research i have collated. Let's see where we are on 1st July 2020.

I dunno at what price i will buy back, that isn't the most important thing for me, progress is.

It does make that assumption Cella which is why i am reducing my exposure here short term as the 2020 figures don't show the same trajectory as Nov/Dec '19 did.

Who's lying Esc?

Thanks Cella.

So in 11 months from feb 2019 to 31st dec 2019 we installed 6,500 units.

This equates to 590/mth install.

so by 1st July 2020 , 20,551 + ( 6 * 590 ) = 24,096

Slips,
The 350km/day/unit was mentioned years ago by Ken Kroeger as a way to calculate fleet numbers. I have found it accurate.

On 11/12/2019 we hit a high with fleet showing 21,049 units as per the calc above. See mentioned fleet install at this time of 20,551 so my 350kms/day/unit should actually be revised to 358.5kms/day/unit to fit the bod's figures.

I am not sure you can take KMS travelled over a different date and assume we have 20,551 running at that time.

Here is the graph again for anyone who is interested.

Take a look where 27,000 and 30,000 is and then take a look at our current trajectory.

https://ibb.co/WFd1NYN

Of course it is my opinion S2020. No one knows facts...

The best guess is looking at historical data, identifying a trend and seeing where that extrapolates to.