Member Info for Smokey2

Explain how 6 months worth of daily fleet data cannot suggest a trend?

It clearly shows a trend....you just don't want to believe it, which is up to you.

Last few days fleet have showed a slight uptick red so the trajectory now points to 24,000.

We are still showing lower figures than Dec 2019's peak though.

I'll update fleet as and when i see a change...

Fleet is looking to be 24000 or thereabouts come 1st July 2020 red if nothing changes.

I think you underestimate this virus and its effect upon the economy.

Trouble is, holding AIM shares long term when there is a global disaster unfolding isn't a good idea.

red,

What makes you think the CV will go in 2 or 3 months?

China have been fighting it extremely aggressively with strict quarantine measures since December 2019 and still cases are escalating.

The rest of the world is adopting a half assed approach.

They may licence our tech S2020 and if they do i will buy back in.

I don't care about buying lower. I will buy back in when i see some progress and any fundraise concerns are firmly off the table.

Cars don't need this tech till 2024. Thats when the money may start coming in.

The problem here for me at the moment, and most likely Lombard is :-

In the latest proactive interview when asked is there anything to worry about in the near future our CEO expressed worry and concern about the prospect of not receiving monies for any aviation/licencing deal by June 2020.

That to me implies money is getting tight and a fundraise may be on the cards. What does it imply to you?

That is why i sold 1.1M and only kept 200k, however, the SP decline over the last few days and the Corona virus getting worse makes me wish i had sold the other 200k.

As an investor, you should be open to hearing both sides of the equation. We are all here to make money, not lose it.

I doubt he would be interested S2020, he likes to see a company making money not burning through it.

Even Lombard aren't buying anymore, they've moved into PHD, a share that has even wilder swings than here.

Hopefully this will be begin to tick upwards in a couple of months, closer to results.

It's not just about SEE's ability to supply DMS units it's also about the supply of other sectors we are involved with.

Automotive operates with a just in time model, any new models could possibly be delayed as China's CV cases worryingly start
to escalate again, wtf wants to buy a new car at the moment anyway?

Whole countries are having to close offices due to this virus and soon there will be tighter restrictions on movement all causing more supply and demand issues and cashflow stresses.

Aviation is suffering with loss of demand from travellers and ever tighter restrictions on travel.

These sectors will not have finalising contracts as their top priority at the moment. They can no longer predict demand and supply and hence cashflow.

To compare the CV to the flu is a mistake. China would not close down an area of 58million and mess up its whole economy for just the flu.

Where it goes is anyone's guess Esc.

Down most likely like all the other shares...

I wouldn't get too caught up trying to average down or guess the bottom personally.

MMs won't even take 100k shares Esc.

Judging by the share price i'm not the only one.

Poor SEE have really been up against it this year ET, what with the devastating fires, then virus panic and global slowdown. I hope the team and their families are all well.

The threat of a fundraise unfortunately is an ever increasing possibility especially if we see fleet numbers impacted. This is how it is with most AIM companies.

Contract discussions take absolutely ages. Maybe a phone call a week to discuss what needs progressing, then another phone call a week later only to be told they haven't gotten around to it as they have more pressing issues to focus on.

I hope we get some good news before we run out of money. I don't think another fundraise at 3p or less would go down well.

Good luck with catching the knife Esc but i fear further drops will happen.

You'll soon have the placements being sold, after that it's sub 3p.

To think that the CV will have no effect on us is quite optimistic. Companies will really be struggling. I'm hearing a lot of Capex being stopped, film productions being cancelled. Whole countries are shutting down and it's not gonna get any better in the short term. Less demand for global goods, less supply for what little demand there is.

The best hope we have is a hot early spring, Boris doesn't seem to be doing anything until it gets a lot worse at which point there is no point doing anything anyway. Maybe it will wipe out a huge number of OAPs, free up some pension money and housing....

Wtf we don't listen to the WHO is anyone's guess.

Maybe everyone prefers not discussing fleet lol.

We can just wait for an update twice a year.

red,

Nothing was mentioned about achieving or missing targets last week was it?

I thought they mentioned they had 5,500 units that's all.

Anyway, let's see what fleet looks like in the coming days or weeks.

Hopefully it will pick up.

A good point terrym,

There are two possible scenarios.

1) Maybe there is less fleet on the road due to less demand due to the corona virus.

2) Maybe there are less fleet vehicles requesting installs due to less demand due to the corona virus.

If we received regular fleet updates that weren't at all cagey/vague i would sway towards the first scenario.

As it is i believe the second scenario.

If fleet was doing well why don't we publish these figures on our website?

The trend is increasing albeit at a much reduced rate compared to November/December 2019 Brockwl.

For me, the important thing is that I see March 2020's fleet install numbers at a pretty similar level to two months ago, not where i expected them to be in March 2020.

The gradient of November to December 2019 put us at 27,500 units at 1/07/2020
The gradient seen during 2020 shows us anywhere from 22.5k to 24k

The number 350/315 kind of does matter Brockwl if you want to try to predict the number of installs on a future date.

The general consensus of opinion is that 350kms/day/vehicle is the correct figure to use

PM mentioned fleet @20,551 @ end of December 2019. The highest fleet numbers during December occurred on 11/12/19. To get a figure of 20,551 from the daily kms for that previous 24hrs you actually need to use 358.5 kms/day/vehicle.

That gives latest figures ( 7013469 kms/day ) as 19562 fleet installs running.

When we get that licence/aviation deal I may buy back in but even PM is dubious it will be done by June.

ET, i know! I have bought here over the last 7 years, made a little profit from 5p to 7.8p a couple of times but missed out on our meteoric rise to 14p then seen it tumble from my buy back in @ 8 to below 3p.

I am never making that mistake again. This time i have managed to lock in a little profit and not witnessed my investment get eroded by 70%

I still believe in the company's potential and hope it is realised over the coming months and years.

I am just erring on the side of caution as i don't have anymore top up money.