Member Info for smickster

Pbow, a couple before you go bud ;-)

Maybe you can dig up something about the locals, power or the upcoming elections in 2029.

I agree it's not worth loosing limbs over

MF try not to mix the 2

Pbow maybe the odd spliff or 2 would help you from looking at the negatives here and stop you sounding like Quady.

Just an idea

That's my concern here at the moment IP , is this a genuine re-rate or are we taken it to a level more inline with a low ball bid.

The higher it goes the less bothered I will be.

40p and they can start the bidding process thanks 😊

And plenty more news over next 6 weeks.

Rodney, is fair to say that we don't feel the dilutive effects if we are sold before production and if we are producing we probably won't care do to our massive income stream?

Rodney, while I'm happy with recent the change of tact and direction for our once rudderless ship, I think it's a bit early for high fives and slaps on the back.

We need to keep progressing and moving like this over the next 12-18 months to convince.

Let's hope it does and we sone of the highs previously seen and higher as we all know its worth.

Gla

Add, I think its more likely Actusray haven't notified fca that they closed out.

Happy to be proved wrong though

The closing of the last short was not declared for months after I believe.

Bonkers, they are supposed to declare the closing of short position in 2 days I think.

The last short was not declared for months after I believe.

Someone may be able to shed more light on this?

SolGold’s current regional subsidiaries (e.g. Carnegie Ridge, Cruz del Sol, Green Rock) each hold individual or grouped tenements, but:

They are project-level entities, not structured for capital raising, governance, or public listing.

They don’t function collectively as a branded or cohesive exploration company.

Managing them separately is inefficient for JV/farm-in negotiations and hard to present to investors.

👉 ExploreCo, by contrast, would consolidate these subsidiaries under a single operational and strategic brand — making it easier to:

Raise money or list shares

Bring in partners at the ExploreCo level, not at every asset/sub level

Allocate shared exploration budgets efficiently.

Courtesy of AI

5. Conclusion

Relaxed permitting rules in Ecuador could accelerate Cascabel’s development timeline, reduce costs, and enhance investor confidence, while higher metal prices would boost the project’s NPV and IRR in the upcoming DFS. Together, these factors could drive a significant re-rating of SolGold’s stock, potentially increasing its share price several-fold from current levels, assuming successful execution and continued positive market sentiment toward copper and gold. However, investors should remain cautious of execution risks, environmental concerns, and global market volatility, which could temper the upside.

Potential Challenges: Despite these positives, risks remain. SolGold’s share price has faced skepticism due to management’s historical challenges in delivering on promises, and the company has cut spending to stay afloat. Environmental and social concerns, as seen in opposition to mining in Ecuador, could resurface, though SolGold’s commitment to ESG principles and community engagement mitigates this to some extent. Additionally, illegal mining issues in Ecuador highlight regulatory enforcement challenges, which could indirectly affect investor perception.mining.comsolgold.com.aumining-journal.com

4. Quantitative Estimate of Re-Rating Potential

While precise re-rating depends on market dynamics, we can estimate based on current metrics:

Current Valuation: SolGold’s market cap is ~£279 million (~$356 million), significantly below the PFS after-tax NPV of $3.2 billion. This suggests the market is applying a steep discount, likely due to execution and permitting risks.solgold.com.aumining.com

Potential Valuation: If the DFS reflects higher metal prices (e.g., $5/lb copper, $2,000/oz gold) and relaxed permitting reduces the discount rate from 8% to, say, 6%, the NPV could rise to $4–5 billion. If the market values SolGold at 0.5x NPV (a conservative multiple for a pre-production asset), the market cap could increase to $2–2.5 billion, implying a share price of ~66–83p (a 7–9x increase from 9.3p).

Catalysts: Key triggers include DFS completion, additional funding tranches, and further permitting progress, potentially within the next 12–18 months.

Sensitivity analysis from the PFS shows that higher metal prices significantly boost NPV. For instance, the 2022 PFS noted that at spot prices (then higher than base assumptions), the after-tax NPV increased to $4.1 billion and IRR to 23.4%. With copper prices recently hitting $5.37/lb on COMEX and gold prices trending above $2,000/oz, a DFS incorporating updated prices could show a materially higher NPV, potentially exceeding $5 billion pre-tax, as suggested in earlier studies.solgold.com.aukitco.comsolgold.com.au

Production Profile: Cascabel is expected to produce an average of 123 ktpa of copper, 358 koz of gold, and 1 Moz of silver annually (212 ktpa copper equivalent) during peak years. Higher metal prices directly increase revenue per tonne, improving cash flows and reducing the payback period (currently estimated at 4 years). This strengthens the project’s attractiveness to financiers and could support a higher stock valuation.solgold.com.aukitco.comsolgold.com.au

Cost Competitiveness: The PFS highlights Cascabel’s low all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $0.06/lb of copper, placing it in the first decile of the industry cost curve. Higher metal prices widen the margin between AISC and revenue, enhancing profitability and resilience to cost inflation, which could further support a re-rating.kitco.com

3. Implications for SolGold’s Stock Re-Rating

A re-rating occurs when the market assigns a higher valuation multiple to a company due to improved fundamentals or reduced risk. For SolGold, the following factors could drive a re-rating:

Improved Project Economics: A DFS incorporating relaxed permitting and higher metal prices could show a higher NPV and IRR than the 2024 PFS ($3.2 billion NPV8%, 24% IRR). For example, a 20% increase in copper and gold prices could push the NPV closer to $5 billion, aligning with earlier pre-tax estimates. This would justify a higher share price, especially if the market currently undervalues SolGold due to its halved share price over the past year (currently at ~9.3p, market cap ~£279 million).solgold.com.aumining.com

De-Risking Milestones: Progress toward DFS completion, permitting advancements, and securing the remaining $650 million of the $750 million gold stream deal with Franco-Nevada and Osisko Royalties (with $33.3 million already received) reduce execution risk. These milestones could trigger a re-rating as investors gain confidence in SolGold’s ability to deliver Cascabel.mining.com

Market Sentiment and Copper Demand: Global copper demand is expected to face a 4.7 million-tonne annual deficit by 2030, driven by electrification and net-zero goals. Cascabel’s potential to become a top 20 South American copper-gold mine positions SolGold to capitalize on this trend, attracting investor interest and potentially leading to a higher price-to-earnings or price-to-NPV multiple.mining.comkitco.comresourceworld.com

Potential Challenges: Despite these positives, risks remain. SolGold’s share p

What will solg re-rate look like with new relaxation of permit rules in Ecuador and increased metal prices affect on dfs

The potential re-rating of SolGold’s stock (SOLG) due to relaxed permitting rules in Ecuador and increased metal prices hinges on several factors, primarily centered around the Cascabel project’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) and the broader economic and regulatory environment. Below, I’ll break down the impact of these factors and their implications for a potential re-rating, based on available information and reasonable assumptions.

1. Impact of Relaxed Permitting Rules in Ecuador

Ecuador’s mining sector has been evolving, with the government taking steps to attract foreign investment by streamlining regulations and improving investor confidence. Relaxed permitting rules could accelerate project timelines and reduce bureaucratic hurdles, directly impacting SolGold’s Cascabel project, a Tier 1 copper-gold asset. Key points include:

Faster Permitting Process: The Cascabel project has already secured environmental and water permits, and an exploitation contract was signed in June 2024, guaranteeing a 33-year renewable mining right. Relaxed permitting could further expedite milestones like the completion of the DFS (originally targeted for H2 2023 but delayed) and the start of construction, now planned for 2025. Reduced delays could lower pre-development costs and bring forward production timelines, potentially advancing first production from the current estimate of 2028.reuters.commining.commining.com

Investor Confidence: Ecuador’s increasingly investor-friendly stance, as evidenced by agreements with companies like SolGold and Lumina Gold, could reduce perceived political and regulatory risk. This could lower the discount rate applied to Cascabel’s Net Present Value (NPV), increasing its valuation in financial models and supporting a higher stock price.mining.comreuters.com

Royalty and Tax Terms: The exploitation contract includes a $75 million advance royalty payment ($25 million at construction start) and a corporate income tax rate of 20%. If relaxed rules lead to more favorable fiscal terms (e.g., tax incentives or lower royalties compared to peers like Lumina Gold’s $25 million royalty deal), this could improve project economics, boosting SolGold’s after-tax NPV and Internal Rate of Return (IRR).mining.commining.com

2. Impact of Increased Metal Prices on the DFS

Rising metal prices, particularly for copper and gold, significantly enhance the economic viability of the Cascabel project. The 2024 Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) provides a baseline for assessing sensitivity to price changes. Key considerations:solgold.com.ausolgold.com.au

Commodity Price Sensitivity: The 2024 PFS assumes long-term prices of $3.85/lb for copper, $1,750/oz for gold, and $22.50/oz for silver, yielding an after-tax NPV8% of $3.2 billion and an IRR of 24%. Sensitivity analysis from the PFS shows that higher met

Clutching at straws

Ecuador sits in the ring of fire as does Chile.

Chile seem to cope with risk when it comes to mining.

Biggest events tend to be coastal which is over 50km away from cascabel.

Just a post to try and sow some doubt.

Probably our shorters feeling a bit desperate

One of our major investors dressed as an eco warrior?

Or just a disillusioned tree hugger

"silly season" in junior mining. That magical (and dangerous) phase when copper juniors start flying 100–500% on little more than hope, hype, or a hot drill hole. Here's a clear breakdown of when it typically hits, what triggers it, and how close we might be in mid-to-late 2025.

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🧠 What Is "Silly Season"?

In junior resource markets, silly season refers to a period when:

Speculative mania drives juniors to absurd valuations.

Retail and momentum traders flood in, often with little due diligence.

Stocks move on rumors, historical drill holes, or pure “potential.”

Promoters and newsletters get loud; chat forums go wild.

> 🚨 It’s high risk, high reward. You can 10x… or lose everything.

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🕒 When Does Silly Season Typically Start?

📈 It’s Phase 3 of a Commodity Bull Market:

1. Phase 1: Majors Move (we're past this)

2. Phase 2: Mid-tiers & quality juniors start to re-rate (we're here now)

3. ✅ Phase 3: Silly Season – speculative mania in juniors

Typical timing:

6–12 months after majors peak.

Often fueled by:

Sustained copper price above $4.50/lb

M&A activity from majors/mid-tiers

Strong macro narrative (e.g. electrification, AI grid demand)

Retail FOMO entering the space

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🔥 Signs We’re Getting Close in 2025

✅ Copper prices remain near or above $4.75/lb

✅ Juniors like Camino (COR), King Copper (KCP), and Solaris already making 300–500%+ moves YTD

✅ ETFs like COPJ up 40%+, early capital rotation underway

✅ More high-grade drill results drawing attention

✅ Capital raising window open again for juniors

🟡 Retail still cautious—hasn’t fully piled in yet (key sign it’s not peak mania yet)

🟡 M&A activity still light—majors still sniffing, but not bidding aggressively

Conclusion:

We're likely in the early innings of silly season, especially for copper juniors. Expect Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 to be the core blow-off phase, assuming:

Copper stays above $4.50+

Retail sentiment turns fully risk-on

One or two big discoveries go viral

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💡 How to Prepare (Without Getting Burned)

1. Own core positions early (now), before the frenzy.

2. Focus on juniors with real assets, near infrastructure or proven belts.

3. Be wary of late-stage promotions—don’t chase parabolas.

4. Use trailing stops or partial profit-taking on big movers.

5. Follow the smart money: insiders, geologists, and project vets.

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🧭 Bottom Line

We’re approaching the edge of silly season now. The smart money is accumulating. When the herd arrives—likely by late 2025 or early 2026—valuations could go wild. That’s your moment to harvest risk, not load more.

Pbow, a bid can drop anytime.

A bid next year is your opinion only.