Member Info for Smellyben

Well we know within the next 4 (I think) working days there will be a release detailing the 5 year plan. Then 2 weeks later the interim results which will show a large improvement in WK (by no means yet operating at full capacity) which should shut up certain deniers ( who have lost their shirt/short this last week)

That’s just the stuff we are very certain about- other RNSs can land anytime!!

No you are correct sorry I meant 2.5 times - just giddy !!

I think whatever credibility TMS had - he has just burned entirely- he spends months saying it’s worthless and now says he’s long - he really is mad

bet he's regretting it now - up 30% today - 250% in the last week - so glad I put my money from here into there !!!

Oh this is very very nice

On the ACF report the financial years are 2022 and 2023 and nothing further - does this mean that the 2023 numbers are the discounted cashflows from 2023 to 2038? They should make that clear

Cheers
N

TMS - contrary to your assertion - the company has said numerous times in RNSs and company presentations that the Sinosteel financing is available to activate AT THEIR DISCRETION at any time. I believe the company, the NOMAD and the fact that Sinosteel did not contradict these statements over an anonymous poster on a board who has a significant short on the company.

I think that is an accurate reflection of what happened with the EOI. But also remember the company was in discussions with a number of other potential partners and the share price was circa 30p at the time so Any valuation within the EOI must have been significantly higher for it to be taken seriously and taken forward

TMS - this from Zak Mir - answers your question re Marathon

There were intriguing snippets this week regarding Russia focused PGM and battery metals group Eurasia Mining (EUA), while the shares remain anchored around the 20p level. The first was Sibanye-Stillwater confirming it will not exercise its right to increase ownership of the joint venture it has with Generation Mining over palladium / copper Marathon Project. Sibanye-Stillwater has continually been active in PGM and battery metals acquisitions recently. At the same time comparisons were being made between the Marathon Project and Eurasia’s flagship Monchetundra asset. EUA’s project has an IRR of 61%, over two times higher than that of the Marathon. Monchetundra also has significantly higher NPV north of $1b even without the Flanks and without Rosgeo JV projects valued by Rosgeo at over $100b in-situ. This may well be the reason that Alexei Churakov recently bought back his entire shareholding.

TMS
The company has stated very clearly in RNS after RNS and in Company investor publications that the financing and plan to mine MT is in place and ready to be activated AT THEIR DISCRETION at any time from Sinosteel.

I get that you dont believe that is possible without a DFS - but the statement from the company - not contradicted by Sinosteel - would mean that you are wrong.

Agree that WK is a bit of a sideshow in terms of overall value (I think it will be profitable after all the operational upgrades - the wash plants, the power changes, the longer season to mine, the mining ourselves not via subcontractors etc ) but ultimately only worth maybe £30-£50m (my estimate) but certainly the key is MT and flanks and we are ready to have a mine there producing within 2 years .... unless someone wants to write a (big) cheque north of £2billion and save us the trouble :)

Had they tried to buy so many shares on the open market the price would have shot up massively - also had they don ethat there would be no benefit to the company so made sense for both parties.

There wont be a placing as the company is awash with money (from the placing mentioned above).

As for revenue predictions on the 3 wash plants at WK - its all in the ACF note

Can I just pass on my admiration for those posters who predicted this appointment through amazing research about two weeks - take a bow.

Any idea which specific AIM rules prevent them from commenting ?

I'm hoping this is the "Firstov" many good RNS's (sorry )

Hasten to say I’m not a lawyer !

This is from the takeover panel rules - Seems to me that this is the situation we are in - the 28 days have passed but we may have asked for an extension

https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk#announcement-obligations

Possible offer announcement

Although a possible offer announcement does not commit a bidder to make an offer, it will trigger an automatic 28 day period in which the potential bidder must either announce a firm intention to make an offer in accordance with Rule 2.7 or publicly withdraw its interest (known as the "put up or shut up" deadline). This deadline can be extended, but only at the request of the target company and with the consent of the Panel.

The "put up or shut put" deadline will not apply, or will cease to apply, to a potential bidder if another bidder has already announced, or subsequently announces, a firm intention to make an offer for the target company.

In my experience in these matters which are in the low millions rather than billions —- once the DD is complete the lawyers and accountants are happy to argue back and forth for as long as they can but it is the principals and their deputies who resolve the issues by compromising and coming to mutually acceptable trade offs on the key road blocks So with that being the case where there is a will there’s a way so 2 months is perfectly doable.

RE the warning - you are taking Harrys version of events, we believe the government spokesman who did indeed say it was a final warning

As for any fall out from taking the license away - they have revoked dozens of licenses from other companies havent seen any huge exodus of firms from Ethiopia especially as Kefi clearly has failed to you know actually fulfil its duties hence the final warning - head in the sand if you like - others dont have to be

Still posting because as anyone who can read can see I was correct - the RNS came out the NEXT working day !!! Try slandering my character again pal with lies and I'll have you thrown off this site

Well the "final warning" phrase was used by the EG spokesperson -I know you probably believe Harrys assurances - I dont he's used mendacity many times before - I believe the govt but we'll agree to disagree .

You say the EG have nothing to gain from taking back the license ? I would say they could resell it again to on much better terms to another miner and make tens of millions more - they have kept their side of the bargain from many moons ago - Kefi have not. Its not as if there is a mine there owned by Kefi - its all just computer models and simulation. The WILL be a mine at TK within 5 years I agree - the govt need the money - where or not Kefi is involved is another matter

Finally if anyone believes a very kind financial institution will hand Kefi 3 or 4 million quid with no strings, no security or convertibility etc then I have a bridge I'd like to sell them !

chasf - are you seriously honestly naive enough to think someone - presumably with a heart of gold - is going to offer Kefi a no strings attached unsecured loan of several million pounds ? If you genuinely believe that then ok but try it certainly has never happened before at Kefi - instead it has always been convertible loans which the parties pre sold into the market driving down the share price, diluting PIs - which in my view is imminent

Simms had more intelligent and sensible feedback which I can disagree with but respect as he is aware of the dangers. I would say to him that a. I believe it is the the ethiopian boss rather than the FD who shares the consultancy firm with Harry taking half a mil a year (under the radar in the small print of the accounts) and secondly while obviously there is gold at TK and the EG want it - that does not mean that Kefi will necessarily be involved - they have been given final warning to sort out finance ad the last RNS was more of th esame what we have heard for years - preparing final documentation, targeting financial closure etc etc - FFS the guy said 4 months ago it would be done by MArch (before that it was Dec, Oct, Q2, Q1, Jan 20, Q4 2019 etc etc )