Member Info for Smellyben

No the shareholders would never approve anything remotely like that - why would they for gods sake as they would be entirely wiped out. Administration would be a far better option if that were the choice - remember the ceo just bought loads of shares at 5p ish a few months ago after the dry well was known - my money is on a sensible d2e conversion at 2-3p. Some kind of jv profit share amendment and longer term bonds of 3-5 years. Without doubt in my opinion worth a 5k punt -at 0.9 could go to nothing but over time could easy be 5-10p if yhere is some time given to utilise the piplelines with relatively easy wins

If youbthinkbthe assets are worthless can you exain how they made 63million pounds profit last year before the impairment charge ? With prices rising - new production From H1 bylthe and elgood the next 7 or 8 montbs will be printing money - in high fixed costs industries the key os to get volume flowing though at the company told you its plans a couple of months ago to debelop the low cost fields and tie them into their existing infrastructure - most of tne cash earned will be used to strengthen the nalance sheet benefiting shareholders. Of course there is a short term liquidity issue but lime a bank foreclosing on a house theybare better off givongvthe company some time to address the issuee than forcing administration and losing money in a firesale -

Gas prices were 54p in june - now they are mid 90s and obviously with winter will go to at leastb130p maybe more depending on severity - that is when iog makes money - a child knows this for gods sake.

It needed the delay because it broke its covenants ( it had the cash to pay the interest) which are contractually reviewed in june and dec. And it knows it needs to improve its capital structure hemce the consultants and no doubt long discussions with customers suppliers jv partners etc. Hopefully they will have plan to escape the short term crunch after those discussions - we will find out in two weeks! Until then a company with fixed infrastructure worth hundreds of millions and tax losses worth similar is an attrative takeover candidate for 5m quid - chump change for CalE, BP etc

Duribg tbe summer snooz of course we arecash negative during the summer - and a hot one at that !!! Winter is a few weeks away and watch the cash build !!!

Obviously higher prices are good for iog - main reason they are hjgher today is the strike at chevron - but we need them to stay high for a number of mobths AND we need to increase our volume - all is hopefully progressing with H1 in time for winter. Short term it depends on whether tbe bondholders believe there is a better chance to get their money back by letting IOG trade over the winter months and see wherebthey stand next june or pull the plug now and lose half their cash in a firesale - im betting the former and with a bit of luck could be a big return but no doubt risky

Well we will find out within the next 2 weeks one way or another - I personalëy don't think theybwill let a major gas supplier go bust coming into winter with a war going on and strikes in place and expect this doomsday scenario currently priced in to not come to pass

If a new bond is agreed then it could easily 5 bag

The fact that gas prices are lowest in the summer should not really surprize anyone surely hence the drop in cash but the next 6 months are projected to see gas prices go to 145p on average from October to June 24 and that along with the increased production from H1 and other firlds bought online should mean IOG get through the cash squeeze - with some BH understanding and self interest. It has hundreds of million in fixed assets and tax losses so it I in everyone interest it continues to operate

There is no suggestion or anticipation of an acquiror buying CalE so they don't really come into it in that regard. Also in my view the huge tax loss asset that IOG has is very attractive to a potential acquirer (which could be CalE) especially in an energy levy environment as the benefit of the offset is so much more. Also IOG updated the market some weeks ago about the new development wells they plan to access with very high IRRs and low capex and that's before the announcement of the new licences due in a few weeks. So yes there are challenges with short-term liquidity but with winter coming the gas price will go much much higher amd at a time they are increasing production so I'm confident a deal will be done to ensure the bond holders are satisfied in the short term and the future will be very bright that's why I just added more last week

Why don't they tell us how far they have gotten with the fishing of the old pipe and installation of the new - 3 months ago they were 7000 out of 8500 from memory - where are we now 7001 , 8499 - FFS a bit of communication as the share price tanks

Sadly there are 10 times more shares though!!

Looking positive

Well the €5m euro extra was to the end of Sept 24 when the current bond is due and as a fee for waiving interest payment from June to Sept 23 about a 4% extra over 15 months (not 3) so you are incorrect again - third time this morning so I think most people can see you dont really know what you are talking about.

That said i dont expect a like for like extension of the current bond - more likely is more stringent terms eg lower exec slaries/bonuses except where agreed KPIs hit, no divis for shareholders, perhaps a change in shares in the JV from 50:50 to 60:40, bondholders approval on capex over x million etc. Ultimately they have assets worth 300-400million pounds and while there is a liquidity issue in a years time coming up which they are addressing they are solvent and in a area that the UK govt is now refocusing on and is vital for national energy security so I'm confident a reasonable deal will be done and there will be a significant bounce in the share price - probably wont get back to 40p but I can easily see teens in teh next few months especially if it is a cold winter

That as

So they say they expect completion of the Egyptian sale by end of the year. To avoid hitting Xmas the deadline would probably be mid December latest and as that it requires shareholder approval we,d expect to have the final deal in place and sent to shareholders by mid November - so just over 2 months away ( could be sooner of course)

Well firstly its euros not pounds that knocks about 20% off your starting figure next they have around 20m pounds in cash as of 3 months ago which will only have grown - another 25% -30%off and then they should be able to refinance the remaining 50m pounds at around 10% so could pay off in 4 years assuming gas prices remain Steady but I'm glad some people like you think so as it keeps the share price down !!

It is new as the strikes were postponed pending discussions hence the recent drop in gas prices - the discussions have broken down this am so this price drop should reverse

Should be at least a 10 percent increase in prices today and going forward until tesolved - latest i heard wss apparently strike will last 3 weeks

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-australia-lng-workers-begin-strike-friday-2023-09-07/

Looked like we had turned a corner a couple of weeks ago - just hope we don't get a load of bond conversions future sold in the nextvfew days before we stabilise - at this price it is okish but the lower it goes death spiral can be contagious and self perpetuating

There will be a big spike up or down in the next few hours depending on whether the aussies go on strike - 10pm tonight deadline - every little helps !

EBITDAX last year was £63million - about £25m net profit (excluding impairment costs) so plenty to play for