Member Info for Smellyben

I'm hoping they wait a week or two - I've got rather a lot of funds coming early next week and I'd love to stick alot more into sdx

Jeez snooz why have you not mentioned this possible suspension before ... on yes you have done every day often twice or three times a day for a week now.

Out of interest I'm assuming you are gonna post the same warning on every other stock in this situation on AIM ? I myself have at least 3 stocks that similarly need to report by Friday but I havent seen your warnings on those boards - wonder why you just post on IOG a stock you are not invested in but I'm sure you are working your way round the dozens of others

There are all manner of things that could happen, bond covenants could be adjusted, extended there coumd be asset sales, farm ins for goddard, JV adjustments, takeovers/ equity participations from the industry, UK govt support,debt for equity, rights issues or usiness as usual especially if the recent price rises have enabled us to clean up short term liquidity

The Board have been aware of the BS stress for months and have brought in the consultants months ago to go through all the options above and no doubt plenty more.

The end of the week is the crux though and we should know.

For me the company has been far far more assets than liabilities and so makes sense that whatever happens the current market cap of 4m is ridiculously low so I'm in and am staying in unrilnof course we hear the outcome!

Might help the gas price I guess

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/groningen-gas-field-closure/#:~:text=Extraction%20of%20gas%20from%20the,the%20Dutch%20Government%20has%20announced.

Happy we are up but so much more to come - my target is between 5 amd 6p by xmas

Yes bebeto if they don't release results they may be suspended - just like a thousand other stocks at the moment - don't worry they will but I for one would prefer them to wait until they have some news on the bonds.

Yes it's in a liquidity situation but that is why the share price has slumped 90 oddbpercent - its already priced in and there is huge potential for upside ifbthey can hammer out a deal which I believe they've ill as they are a profitable company with hundreds of millions of pounds of assets with a short term liquidity squeeze but as they say in Game of Thrones - winter is coming

Maybe you have been blinded by your losses but your posing history is there for all to see. I looked you up to see if you were clever or had any value but every single position you take seems to go south so I'm sure you are a lovely person but just a terrible investor - below is a snippet of one or two as you called into question my honour but there are plenty more if people can be bothered to look - positive when the price was 5p (alright 4.85) and once you sold at a massive loss just negative post after negative post -

snooz

Posted in: IOG

Posts: 332

Price: 4.65

No Opinion

RE: BSDs?20 Apr 2023 21:23

>Is this your first buy here or adding to a holding?

>Are you planning on buying more?

That buy more than doubled my holding. I've not got a specific target... but when the price is back at 6 I'd be thinking about selling half (last time I sold was 6.1, so have a psychological level there), depending on what else I can find to invest in at the time.

I'll hold the rest hoping to X2 on that investment.

snooz

Posted in: IOG

Posts: 332

Price: 4.75

No Opinion

RE: BSDs?19 Apr 2023 21:06

Oops - a bit of a miscommunication between me and them. I was the buy at

19-Apr-23 15:45:05 4.80

I thought they'd cancelled the order a couple of hours before, but they were just telling me they couldn't fill it at the time despite the offer being 4.8, but it was still live.

I'm currently waiting on 3 companies to give half yearly reports at end of Sept - no issue not sure why anyone would focus on that.

I find it odd that snooz was recommending this share a matter of weeks ago when the price was around 5p - just because he got burnt and bailed out at a huge loss has made him hate the company but that is just testament to his poor analysis and judgement I'd say.

At this price it will multi bag instantaneously if a deal is hammered out between all the interested parties. If not the administrators would do exactly what the company says it is already doing ie maximising flow over the winter months, zero capex, ops savings etc so in the end if the price stays high and goes higher we could be out of administration very quickly to multibag then - I dont mind waiting...

The gas price in July was54p - last time I looked today it was 112p and forecast to continue increasing over the winter. H1 is being brought online again during these high price months - in what world does that sound like a decline

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt

Well to counter that snooz

1. They could have paid the coupon when it was due as they had 20m in cash as is clear - the problem wasn't paying the coupon and nor is it now itbisbthatvthe covenant terms in terms of interest to earnings were broken because of the 50m write off. For me this is a one off technicality and while obviously very disappointing has no bearing on ongoing profits of fields that are currently producing and others hat can be brought online cheaply given the infrastructure already in place

H2 was estimated to produce between 20-30 mmscf - it began higher than that so when it dropped to circa 22 the market reacted badly but it was in the range of the original targets even if towards the lower end. It is new and there may be operational aspects then can employ to improve run rates but we will see.

H1 and Elgood we have history on the numbers - yes there was an issue with water on H1 but that's why there is a lower run rate to reduce and why we are doing it at winter to maximise prices.

Ultimately the company made 63m last year before one off write offs - if it only gets 40m this year that is still far far more than a 80m debt service

Once the panic is over this will pop to 4 or 5 p short term this winter - more probably depending on gas prices etcb

Perhaps they are realising that a company that made 63m pounds last year should be valued a tad more that 4m !!!!!!

Can you dispute the numbers bro ? gas is at 110p at the moment as well far higher than anticipated though to be fair H2 is running a bit less

From a post a few weeks ago from Coldspy

We need circa £90m by next September. It's likely if we have £40m or so we can easily refinance the remaining £50m over 5 years through bank or other.

We already have £20m

We have 26 mmscf from H2.

H1 can add 14 mmscf. That's 40.

Elgood can do 25 mmscf. That's 65 per day.

If its run at full speed when prices are 120p plus for 3 months we can bring in circa £42m in just 3 months.

Next month onwards we're likely looking at 100p + for gas until March next year.

The tax losses and assets are worth over £400m

If CalE have half we still have over £200m

There will be a massive investment push in the North Sea to secure the next 10 years of energy for the UK. How much profit can be made it laid out in the recent half yearly report. Over £1 billion pounds

They want the company. Tell them to pay for it.

6p isn't enough if that's where they're at. 8p+ we walk away and let them go

Gas price well over a pound now - and the cold has hardly started ...

The flow rate this winter will be more with both H2 and H1 rather than just H1 - and yes EBITDAX but that is the standard measure of ongoing profitability in oil and gas industry- very very healthy - a 20 bagger here in short order once the short term liquidity issues are sorted and we find out next week !

Yes ladies and gentlemen that is what iog made last year before write offs due to a dry well.

Helped of course by high prices due to tje war but with strikes in Oz and winter arriving (ive put my heating on forbthe first time in months today) we are lookibg at 6 montbs of serious revenues and profits

Yes all things being equal it probably did but you simply cannot look at a single line on a balance sheet as evidence of anything - acctuals, prepayments, creditors, investments are all interlinked - what we need is an update from the board in two weeks time - that is a sensible time to make a decisio. Notvwhen everyone is panicking about worst case scenarios

No im sorry they never said they would hoard cash they said they stabilise the balance sheet.

It is pretty standard If you suspect a customer might have cash flow problems that you demand payment up front,

For any new services , demand payment of amounts owed in Order to continue delivering vital services in normal course of business etc - i have been in a couple of companies like this over the years and that is normal - so while cash may have fallen so would liabilities - in truth no one knows until updated numbers are released but very plausible and prudent ifbthat is the case.

Snooz you talk nonsense - yes the cash on hand has fallen over the summer months when gas prices are lowest but you (and no one) can conclude anything about that until you see the financials - maybe they prepaid some expenses, maybe they paid off some non BH creditors - whatbwe do know isbthe gas prices have nearly doubled since june and will obviously rise further. Also we know they plan tobbring H1 online in time for winter boosting production and maximizing revenue when prices are highest