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Unfortunately it’s impossible to compete with algorithm driven High Frequency Trading (HFT) which is over and done in a matter of seconds. Despite a tightening of financial regulations since the previous financial crash the traders are always ahead of the regulators and with AI the opportunities just keep growing. For us mere mortals we just have to rely on good due diligence, research and gut instinct.

I’m glad they took a bit longer to submit a comprehensive reply to the FDA AIR. Shows due diligence and wanting to ensure they have double ticked all the boxes.

@Dougerboy yes I wasn’t sure how to interpret that either. 90% of me thinks it’s just in the language used (presume John is American) and it’s just a polite reply.
10% of me thought - hmm does this mean there are other parties / considerations involved in the timing of the release other than Itaconix. That opens the door to all sorts of speculative and exciting thoughts!!!

I should add that although the reply is signed off from John the actual email was sent from the corporate email account. So perhaps someone wrote it on behalf of John and hence the royal “we” could just be referring to those within Itaconix. It was also cc’d to Laura Denner (CFO/Secretary).

Last month I sent a rather hopeful and cheeky email to Itaconix politely enquiring when the next trading update would be. I was pleasantly surprised to receive an email reply from the top gentleman late yesterday. The reply reads:

Thank you for your inquiry. Your participation and support are greatly appreciated.

We do not have guidance on when we may release news to the market.

Best regards,
John R. Shaw
CEO

So illogical! The travel sector can not sustain this unnecessary pain. IAG will be fine long term I am sure but other smaller companies are gonna go bust. It’s really quite sad

Considering the volume so far today is 279,000 and AJP has bought 150,000 and myself a smaller amount it seems bizarre price action

My small top up buy is showing as a sell!

Also just added at 14.2p, like you say AJP too good an opportunity

Thanks Ted and Malachi. It would be nice to know whether they have submitted the AIR documents last month as expected. Hopefully the FDA delay due to all things Covid is not as long as feared in March.

I’ve just plotted a graph to show how we could get to $75m by 2027 (which is a figure John Shaw alluded to in a presentation last year). It works out that we would need to add $2.5m every 6 months. So on that basis H1 could come in at $4.7m. Some massive assumptions in there but who knows... I suspect the figure will come in closer to the $4m others have suggested.

When are we expecting the FDA outcome?

The exponential growth case would look something like this:
2020 H1: £1.1m (Actual)
2020 H2: £2.2m (Actual)
2021 H1: £4.4m
2021 H2: £8.8m
I am NOT predicting this, just saying this would be the “dream” scenario that would make us all very rich quickly!

Very encouraging and logical projections. Another simple projection is that from 2019 to 2020 revenue grew by 155% to £3.3m so if the same rate of revenue growth occurs that equates to ££8.3m for 2021. However, that assumes linear growth which may be on the conservative side if the company is growing exponentially. 2021 H1 will tell us whether the rate of growth is linear or exponential. Continued linear growth of 155% would be impressive but exponential growth would be something else entirely!!

We all remark when the share price shoots up on high volume days but equally remarkable is how stable the share price is on low trading days such as today. I think now that early investors have top sliced everyone is content to hold ready for the next update. It appears that the days of buying on dips are gone!

I am buying BOO at these levels as I believe this month’s trading update will be better than expected. First the reopening of shops is unlikely to have had much material impact on BOO’s core business (if any), in fact I think the re-opening of venues will have led to an increase in business. Second the recent acquisitions picked up ridiculously cheaply are going to improve the outlook. Third the US is booming so sales there will be up which always gets the markets attention. Yes BOO may be unpopular with institutions at the moment but they won’t be able to ignore positive trade updates for long.

Thanks AJP

AGM notice on website states Thursday 24th June. I also noticed the company plans to allot shares up to £1.45m. Does this represent a minor dilution of 2% at current market value or am I interpreting this incorrectly?

Massive upgrade for one of our biggest customers

@researcher my comment re binary was in specific reference to FDA approval. If they didn’t get FDA approval the impact on share price would also be pretty dramatic (in all the wrong ways). Thankfully I don’t think that will be the case.

I strongly believe that FDA approval will send this rocketing. The reason is that these binary bets are priced similarly to a win or loose bet in the bookies. If you want to “cash out” at half time even if the team is winning 2:0 you only get a fraction of the win value.