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Thought we’d be flying up after the interactive investor recommendation. Maybe it’s just war jitters

@Upsanddowns2024 they say timing is everything with investing and IMO now is the perfect time to invest in Itaconix. A lot of investors here bought in when the price was ridiculously high a few years ago which is no fault of the company. Back then it was all hope and hype without the supporting numbers.

Fast forward to 2026 and the company revenue is forecast to be circa $13.5m for 2026 and positive cash flow comes in 2027 (that’s backed up by the broker’s detailed forecasts). The current market cap is really low at circa 2027 estimated revenue. The great thing about their revenue is that it is reoccurring and growing at a solid rate. I expect them to be at $30m by 2030. They also have tons of IP which is referenced by everyone else in their sector. They are now in the happy position of being able to choose which applications to grow their business in based on highest gross margins.

The current share price is being held down by Octopus Investments but that won’t last.

Also the investment environment has been anti-green since Trump came to power but that is cyclical and will change after the November mid-terms.

I am continuing to add shares below 130p as my expectation is for the share price to be in excess of 260p by this time next year. I can’t think of many shares where there is a solid case to double your money in 12 months.

All IMO of course and glad that you are doing your own research.

Great spot! Thank you

https://ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/five-aim-growth-shares-your-isa-2026-ii538666

@lootgaloot I understand your theory but as soon as the share price dips under £1 the shares are instantly snatched up, usually the same day. I know this market is bonkers but 80p seems one heck of a stretch.

Short answer is ‘No’. Trading volumes are relatively low as most of us here are long term holders.

Todays price action demonstrated the point I made in an earlier post that there is strong support at £1 so extremely unlikely you will be able to buy back in at a lower cost than you sell at.

I’m just tucking my shares away for now and will add more shares when the new ISA season kicks in.

Absolutely Morbox. Everyone knows the feedback is coming and that it will be good. But traders also saw an opportunity to drive down the price knowing there would be a gap between samples going out in late December and the few months it takes to get results.

Coinciding with a war hasn’t helped, but tech stocks are now considered oversold by the market. The oil shock will also push consumers back to EVs as people won’t forget the ridiculous prices they are paying at the pumps. This isn’t the first oil price shock.

I suspect we are now at the basement level for share price so I will be massively topping up when the ISA allowance renews next week.

There is growing opinion that tech stocks are heavily oversold. Yesterday the Nasdaq started to rise as sentiment switches from maximum fear to hope. At some point sentiment will also switch here as there is nothing wrong with the business fundamentals at Itaconix.

With the Exception of what we consider a worthy RNS versus what the company thinks should be a RNS, I really can’t complain about anything they are doing. Revenue, margins, profitability, innovation, expansion etc are all going in the right direction and they will be generating free cash flow in 2027.

Personally I have been using the current sell off in stocks as an opportunity to add shares at what I consider a basement price. As Elsol says there is a massive disconnect between share price and business value. This will change.

IMO they will not do a placing at such a low price. It doesn’t make any sense or logic to give equity away so cheaply.

More likely is the announcement of the first deal for Goliath which is then followed by a placing. The 10Ah are sufficient as a MVP for the non EV sectors eg defence and consumer electronics.

Just a question of being patient until a deal(s) announced. I am continuing to top up at these lowly levels and believe good news will come soon. GLA and DYOR.

Anyone selling must be doing so at a loss, perhaps in the hope of buying in cheaper. However, we know from history that as soon as the share price dips to 95p to 100p there is a strong buy reaction from the market. So IMHO selling at 105p really makes little sense especially once you factor in the buy/sell spread in AIM.

When asked why the company did not releases more RNS about developments we find out about informally, by trawling patent websites and following LinkedIn etc, JS replied that they only posted RNS which had a materially impact on their current financial position. I understand his view but I disagree with it. A RNS can be used to talk about developments which help generate interest in small fast growing companies such as Itaconix. I do hope they will reconsider this but suspect they won’t as they seem rather stuck in their ways.

@Arkham, in light of this, you may be correct about the share price trading sideways for some time as we already know from the broker forecasts the estimated revenue and EBITDA position for 2026, so upcoming trading updates just reiterate the company is expanding as planned. That’s fine but it’s not going to generate the excitement which we all crave. Long term they are an excellent investment, and I will keep ploughing money into my ISA at these prices, but I agree it may take some time to see the multibagger returns we are all aiming for.

Another way the company can get the share price moving other than director buys, is to start buying back shares.

The past equity raises were necessary but the downside is that there are now a lot of shares out there. Notably they are much cheaper than the equity raised at the time so it would actually be very good business for Itaconix to start buying shares back. Probably not feasible until next year when they become cash positive but if they did start to do that, it would drive the price up quickly, so a win-win for Itaconix.

Very good article in Bloomberg Green about the direct impact the war in the Middle East is having on consumer choices. There has been a notable switch to EVs, heat pumps, solar panels etc. the article goes on to say that these sudden increases in oil prices become engrained in consumers long term consciousness.

Thanks AJP, Itaconix formulas are everywhere it seems and good to see other companies specifically referencing Itaconix products as being “suitable Polyitaconates”.

A couple of other potential lines of enquiry I took from yesterdays presentation:

1. JS mentioned that they get the patents awarded in the US first and then apply for them in Europe and Asia? Has anyone looked at this?

2. John laughed when asked about the 6 shipments in 2025 H2 to Europe. He said there were much more. I think we all thought 6 shipments was a lot, but clearly they are way ahead of our expectations. Not sure where else you can look without knowing where to look!

There is so much in the RNS and presentation I really need to go through it again.

@martyboy better for them to cut staff than divest of any more shares. Hopefully this marks a change in strategy. Not many companies like Itaconix that are not impacted by the hike in oil prices.

Thanks AJP. Question asked and answered at 59.50. They acknowledge some minor sales but reassuringly there is nothing significant to report. Also good to hear that they too are disappointed with the share price and clearly want to see it improve.

I liked what I read in the RNS yesterday and also liked their honesty and openness answering our questions today. I did think a couple of the questions were a bit rudely phrased, but they still answered them professionally.

My advice to long term investors is to let the past go. The share price got way ahead of itself and in hindsight was frankly ridiculous, back when the company was much smaller and less developed. Ask yourself would you invest today?

On the basis of what I have read and heard I have decided to invest more deeply in Itaconix over coming weeks and months. It is clear to me that they have an excellent speciality business which is growing fast, and they are picking and choosing where to invest for maximum return, rather than simply pursuing revenue growth. Their business model is also plant based and immune to the current geo-political mess. Well done to the Itaconix team. You have my full support.

Elsol did you or anyone else hear what they said about Octopus Investments? I lost my connection briefly and missed that bit.

I thought so too. Didn’t that 8 gram dishwasher tablet look tiny! Hopefully they can tweak it and get it to market in less than the 18 - 24 months mentioned. Also glad Bioasterix is staying within the parent company as I see paints and coatings as a massive business in its own right.

JS must have enjoyed telling everyone that Itaconix are not affected by the petrochemical price increases as they are entirely plant based. Also good that they will likely pick up work from their acrylic competitors who have been hit by the 20 - 30% increase in costs, if the problem continues.

The only question / answer I missed was about Octopus Investments as I lost connection at that point. Can anyone advise what they said please?

DD if that’s what you truly believe despite all the evidence to the contrary, then probably best for you to sell up and leave. Good luck in your other endeavours 😊

They have $8.7m equity in 2025 and 2026 and this rises to $9.0m in 2027 because they are generating free cash flow in 2027. The equity figure will continue to increase upwards in future years.

They have capacity to treble their turnover in their existing facility. 5 years down the line, the company will have no trouble releasing equity to fund a facility in Europe as they will be at $30m revenue and I estimate their equity will be circa $25m.

Reading through the RNS the section on BIO*Asterix® stands out for a number of reasons.

Firstly, once the specialty water-based paints, targeted for introduction by the second half of 2027, hit the market it anticipated that this initial use will generate substantial revenue over several years and serve as a springboard for broader adoption of plant-based coatings over the next decade.

Secondly they state “We are investing in products, applications, and patents to develop BIO*Asterix into proprietary business with significant long-term growth potential.”

Does this suggest they are going to run BIO*Asterix as a separate business in its own right? It sounds to me that they recognise it is going to be a massive cash cow and have set the business up in such a way that it could be part of a merger / acquisition / partnership, without them having to include the cleaning side of the business. How do others read this?